Oscars 2023: We Have Our Unstoppable Frontrunner

We haven’t had an unstoppable frontrunner in a while, a movie that seems destined to follow up its win at the DGA with a win at the PGA and SAG. No, it won’t matter what wins at the BAFTA this afternoon. Remember Birdman? Remember Argo? Everything, Everywhere All at Once is about to join that list, I figure. The reason is this: there is no time to build any different consensus. And the win feels good and it feels right.

If a film that wins at the Globes (Argo) feels right, it keeps winning. But if its win at the Globes feels wrong (Avatar) its win is stopped short. There are many factors at play with EEAAO but probably the biggest factor in its favor — other than it being intersectional so there won’t be agonizing think pieces about racism the next morning — is that it’s simple. It’s a very very simple story wrapped up in a lot of colorful multiverse visual effects. But at its core it couldn’t be more simple — woman learns how to defrost, love her husband again, appreciate her life, and accept her daughter.

It’s basically It’s a Wonderful Life but it’s also current in the broader expression of a civilization migrating to virtual spaces vs. those who are still stuck in the earthly experience. Either way, it doesn’t matter, because now it’s the unstoppable frontrunner.

Everything Everywhere had a very clever ad campaign which was no ad campaign, allowing their massive fandom on Film Twitter do it for them. That’s lightning in a bottle and hard to control but you have to admit that is having an impact on film awards.

This is a film that either you get it or you don’t. If you get it, you’re enthralled by it every step of the way. If you don’t get it, you’re locked out of the experience of appreciating it. For me, it was like having a cast iron skillet hit against my head for the first hour. I did like the scene with the rocks. I appreciated the effort throughout to razzle-dazzle us. Ke Huy Quan is, I think, magnificent throughout. But when you’ve been hit in the head with a cast iron skillet for an hour, it’s hard to recover.

But hey, listen, this wouldn’t be the first time this website was not exactly jumping up and down with excitement about the inevitable unstoppable frontrunner. This one isn’t as bad as some others in the past. Though I will note I was correct in my early assessment that it’s a “kicking the puppy” movie. You can’t really criticize it because it’s just too well-meaning and good-hearted.

Does it change things if something else wins the PGA, like Top Gun Maverick? Answer: probably nothing else is going to win the PGA. Once a film catches fire and the consensus is in motion it is unstoppable. A voting body of 16,000 just picked this movie. Now, true, there could have been some vote splitting going on, but it also beat Avatar WoW at the Art Directors Guild.

But if something else did win with the producers, then yes, that would signal this film may face different hurdles and have a harder time winning on a preferential ballot. I don’t think that’s possible because this film, I always thought, does especially well on a preferential ballot.  If that did happen, then the race is SLIGHTLY more unpredictable.

Hopefully, this win will bring joy to those who love the film.

The question now becomes how many Oscars will the film win. I’ve already talked about how rare it is for a film to win Best Picture and TWO acting awards. The last time it happened was Million Dollar Baby. Can it happen again? Sure. Especially if voters are feeling the heat from the Andrea Riseborough debacle. If enough of them feel that they don’t want to be seen as racists they might flip to Michelle Yeoh. The Jamie Lee Curtis ad campaign is coming on strong and if she flipped Angela Bassett’s win, then it more or less cancels out the credit they’ll get for flipping to Yeoh.

Granted, some people believe Michelle Yeoh should win outright. Cate Blanchett has two Oscars already and isn’t exactly chasing this win. She’s laying low, it seems to me, and trying to do what she can to LOSE the award, or rather to flip it to Yeoh. I have no idea how all of that will play out. Voters are working from three impulses: what they genuinely loved best, how their vote will make them look, and doing “good” in the world with their vote. How that all ends up, even with the best of intentions, isn’t always easy to predict.

So if it wins Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor that puts it in line with The King’s Speech. If it can win anything beyond that, like Actress or a crafts award, then we’re at The Artist. The Hurt Locker is still the film with the most wins in the era of the preferential ballot, with 6 wins. In each of these cases, they were definitely turning on their heart light with pure love. So if that pure love exists for this movie, it won’t just barely win. It will win pretty big, in maybe 5 or 6 categories. Can it go beyond that, and really sweep?

Here are the awards it’s up for besides acting:

Editing
Costume
Score
Song

Can it wins these? I guess? Costumes is a maybe – they could beat Elvis, I suppose. Editing is a maybe. They could beat Top Gun Maverick, I suppose.  In this case, it’s probably wise to see what BAFTA does today, to gauge just how much they like this movie. Today’s final tally will definitely impact the down ballot wins, everywhere everything.