Oscars 2023: Preview and Predictions + Contest!

This weekend, we’ll hear from three more guilds: the ACE (Eddie Awards), the ASC, and the WGA. If Everything Everywhere All at Once really is going to take all of the awards at the Oscars, it really should ace two of the three groups: ACE and WGA. Let’s start with ACE.

What wins the Eddie can sometimes predict what will win the Oscar but not always. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last match and that was Bohemian Rhapsody. I’ve never really understood what it is about a movie that makes people form a consensus and think: yeah, that deserves to win editing. What I find, more often than not, is that it’s a major prize they give a movie they like that might not be winning Best Picture.

The films that have won the Oscar for editing and Best Picture since 2009:

2012 — Argo
2009 — The Hurt Locker

And that’s it. Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to have to be Argo, which it already isn’t because it didn’t win the Globe and it didn’t win the BAFTA. Would Birdman have won Editing if it hadn’t been one long take, or 1917? I have no idea, but even if Everything Everywhere wins the Eddie, it might not win the Oscar. We’re in brand new territory here.

Even when Parasite won the WGA, ACE, and SAG. it still didn’t win Editing at the Oscars:

Argo was unlike anything we’ve seen in the era of the expanded ballot, winning EVERYTHING in a perfect line. It did win Editing but it only won three Oscars total:

Parasite and Argo both won SAG ensemble and WGA. Plenty of films from the past might have won SAG/WGA/ACE had the screenplay been eligible for the WGA. Everything Everywhere is expected to win both WGA and ACE. If it doesn’t, it’s slightly less formidable than we might be thinking.

Then again, CODA wasn’t even nominated for Editing at either the Eddies or the Oscars, or Directing at the DGA or at the Oscars — and it still won. The heart wants what it wants:

What could challenge Everything Everywhere at the ACE? Probably only The Banshees of Inisherin, unless we’re going to see surprises.

This is what our year looks like right now:

If anything other than Everything Everywhere in Musical/Comedy and Top Gun Maverick in Drama wins at the Eddies, then we will have a slightly more unpredictable race.

If anything other than Everything Everywhere All at Once in Original and Women Talking in Adapted wins at the WGA, then we’re in slightly unknown territory. Remember, neither The Banshees of Inisherin or All Quiet on the Western Front are eligible for screenplay at the WGA, so we don’t know what will happen at the Oscars, but we assume the two frontrunners are Everything Everywhere All at Once and Women Talking.

In the era of the expanded ballot, a movie usually wins Director OR Screenplay but not both. I could see a scenario where the BAFTA voters push through their beloved films, Banshees and All Quiet, at the Oscars. I could also see (though I’m probably delusional) a scenario where Top Gun: Maverick comes out the winner this weekend, taking the ACE and the WGA.

Speaking of Mav, the ASC also announces this weekend and it’s (inexplicably) not nominated for the Cinematography Oscar. The three films that are nominated for both:

Elvis
Empire of Light
Bardo

If Top Gun: Maverick wins the ASC, then we have no clue what will win the Oscar. If Elvis wins there, it could still win the Oscar, becoming the first film by a female DP (Mandy Walker) to win.

Either way, here are our predictions for the ASC, the WGA, and the Eddies:

ASC

Top Gun: Maverick — Mark Johnson, Marshall Flores, Sasha Stone
Elvis — Clarence Moye, Ryan Adams
Empire of Light
Bardo
The Batman

WGA

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Johnson, Moye, Flores
Tár — Adams, Stone
The Fabelmans
The Menu
Nope

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking — Johnson, Moye, Flores
Top Gun: Maverick — Stone
She Said — Adams
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Downfall: The Case Against Boeing — Moye, Flores, Stone
Moonage Daydream — Adams
2nd Chance
Last Flight Home — Johnson
¡Viva Maestro!

ACE Eddies

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (Comedy, Theatrical):
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Stone, Adams, Johnson, Moye, Flores
The Banshees of Inisherin
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Triangle of Sadness

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM (Theatrical or Non-Theatrical):
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Stone, Adams, Johnson, Moye, Flores
The Bad Guys
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (Theatrical):
Moonage Daydream — Adams, Moye, Flores
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed — Stone
Navalny — Johnson
Fire of Love
Good Night Oppy

Contest below!