2023 Emmy Predictions: Have Our Drama and Comedy Series Emmy Winners Marched In?

It’s time to start taking the Emmy race seriously. Especially since the month of March debuted two extraordinarily strong contenders for comedy and drama series.

Not that we haven’t had potential contenders or even winners pop up before now. On the comedy front, ABC’s Abbott Elementary broke out of the gate last fall and built upon its September Emmy wins and well received sophomore season to make a huge impact across the winter guild season. Critics Choice and the Golden Globes took their chances to recognize the series, giving it comedy series wins among a handful of other prizes. It also won the Screen Actors Guild ensemble prize. Those wins alone put it firmly into the 2023 Emmy front runner spot.

What else could beat it? Only Murders in the Building dropped its sophomore season in the heat of the 2022 Emmy cycle to bolster its chances there, but it didn’t help. It’s still eligible for 2023 Emmys thanks to the June-to-May eligibility window, but hasn’t everyone kind of moved on? While Steve Martin, Martin Short, and Selena Gomez all stood out because they’re iconic personalities, how many people actually remember the plot? Its first season became a word-of-mouth sensation, powering it all the way from an early fall debut to a strong Emmy showing and a handful of predictions to win. That sense of excitement doesn’t seem particularly present for season two, even after bringing in Meryl Streep for its third season.

FX’s THE BEAR “Braciole” (Airs Thursday, June 23) Pictured: (l-r) Jeremy Allen White as Carmen Berzatto, Liza Colon-Zayas as Tina. CR: Matt Dinerstein/FX

FX’s The Bear also premiered early in the Emmy window, but the winter guild season surprisingly carried it through in top form. The “comedy” received mentions from Critics Choice and the Golden Globes with Jeremy Allen White winning Best Actor at both ceremonies. It also received nominations from the big four guilds — Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild — and won the Producers and Writers Guild awards for the best comedy series of 2022. You can’t underestimate how huge that is, particularly for a series that isn’t a comedy in the slightest. Yes, it’s a half-hour, but I earnestly challenge you to give me moments across season one (I need episode number and time stamps) that actually made you laugh. It’s a very good show. It’s just not a comedy. Not at all.

That puts Abbott Elementary in the frontrunner spot going into the final three months of the Emmy season. While it does feel poised to break out in an even bigger way for its second season, are there signs of weakness in its guild reception? It received mentions at the Writers Guild and Producers Guild, losing both to The Bear, but the Directors Guild ignored it. It did win the SAG award, which of the four is probably the best indicator of future Emmy successes. But why didn’t the directors nominate it? That’s also a category in which season one struggled at the 2022 Emmy Awards, failing to score a bid at all.

Perhaps the biggest question mark of the season remains how Abbott Elementary will fare against the recently dropped season three of AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso. Since Lasso premiered outside of the winter guild season, the two have yet to face off since the 2022 Emmys where Lasso took home comedy series, directing, and two acting trophies for Jason Sudeikis and Brett Goldstein. I suspect that the 2023 Emmy race remains squarely between these two titles, particularly with HBO Max’s Hacks likely out of the running due to star Jean Smart’s heart surgery last month. The Bear could factor in, but my sense right now is that it’s far more likely to remain competitive in the directing or writing races where its artistic sensibilities are more likely to be recognized. And Jeremy Allen White and Jason Sudeikis will duke it out to the very end for that actor trophy. Just a side note: I’m giving Sudeikis the edge in the end because Bill Hader’s dark turn in HBO’s Barry feels more likely to siphon votes away from White’s darker turn in The Bear, leaving Sudeikis’s dark-but-doggedly-sunny performance in Lasso the likely winner.

The only thing holding Ted Lasso back might be a sense of redundancy in the third and potentially final season. You can see this somewhat in effect if you look at the latest reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. With a 93% approval, so far, season 3 ranks above the freshman season but well below the near-perfect season 2 score of 98%. AppleTV+ and team would be wise to counter this by emphasizing the narrative that this will indeed be Lasso‘s final run with the characters living on in potential spin-offs. Now, I do not expect as many performance nominations as season 2, so there may be the appearance that the Emmys have moved on. Don’t let that fool you. Supporting Actor nominations are likely limited to Brett Goldstein and Nick Mohammed with the slight chance that James Lance (Trent Crimm, formerly of The Independent) shows up thanks to an increased season 3 presence. Hannah Waddingham and Juno Temple likely won’t be accompanied by season 2 nominee Sarah Niles whose season 3 role has been, so far, relegated to FaceTime appearances.

If Emmy voters have a salient reason to vote for it (such as, it may be their last chance), then it likely overcomes any sense of slightly diminished returns from season 2. Audience demand is certainly there as season 3 premiered 59% higher than season 2. Also, the recent Ted Lasso White House mental health summit / publicity stunt shows the team appears ready to pull out all the stops to secure a third comedy series trophy.

I mean, they even had Lance stashed in the press corps.

What’s better than that? I do think, though, that AppleTV+ felt they needed something to make Ted Lasso have some kind of gravitas beyond the “white male angst” for which Jason Sudeikis is currently the poster child. This mental health initiative seems to be something AppleTV+ has identified as a counter to Abbott Elementary‘s social justice campaign. I shouldn’t say “social justice” because that does have a negative connotation. I honestly do believe that Quinta Brunson and team want to support underfunded teachers. I honestly believe their hearts are in the right place and that this is not at all a marketing / awards ploy. Why do I think that? Because they don’t need it. Their show is wildly popular and holds the banner of the dying network sitcom. ABC, on the other hand, and publicists fully realize that Brunson and team’s generosity is the goose that lays the golden eggs. They absolutely want the world to know, and they continue to publicize it generously.

Ted Lasso, by comparison, has no positive socially conscious warm hugs that the Television Academy can warm up to. They didn’t need it much last year as season 2 was the inescapable juggernaut and the world had yet to fully warm to Abbott Elementary. AppleTV+’s likely feeling the heat a little this season, and thus you have the major cast showing up at the White House to mug for the cameras, take pictures in front of Michelle Obama’s portrait, and — oh yeah — talk about mental health.

I used to think these races didn’t need that kind of campaigning. I used to think studios didn’t care THAT MUCH about the Emmys.

Is all that changing?

On the drama series front, 2023 appears poised to be an embarrassment of riches for HBO.

A lot of Emmy watchers wondered how broadly audiences would embrace HBO’s return to Westeros in House of the Dragon. After Game of Thrones ended with an Emmy-dominating but audience-repelling final season, no one really knew how people would receive a series dedicated to the downfall of the Targaryen dynasty. Turns out, a lot of people wanted to see this show, and it dominated ratings throughout the fall.

Now, here’s where I get a little hypocritical.

I’m predicting a drama series nomination for House of the Dragon despite being nearly completely ignored by the four major guilds. It only received a Screen Actors Guild nomination for stunts, which it lost to Stranger Things. Yet, I’m still predicting it mostly because it’s a pre-sold property backed by a major, Emmy-friendly content provider. The guild mentions it missed out on were all dominated by series that premiered far earlier in 2022 and were eligible within a different Emmy cycle. We’re talking Euphoria, Better Call Saul (although its bizarrely structured back-half remains eligible this year), Ozark, and Severance. Those titles were most celebrated within the drama categories at the winter guilds with the occasional entry of Mike White’s The White Lotus (more on that later). Yeah, newer shows like Andor were also recognized, but I’m still confident that Dragon factors into the final eight. Now, who from the cast receives nominations is completely beyond me. If anyone tells you they’re completely confident, then they have a crystal ball.

Then, Mike White’s The White Lotus debuted its second season, set in Sicily, and proved to be even more wildly popular than its Emmy-blessed first season. I refused to believe for a very long time, much longer than my peers, that HBO would allow The White Lotus to campaign as a drama series. Here’s a hill I will die on: it’s not a drama series. One character carrying over from the original season does not a series make. It’s a completely different cast save Jennifer Coolidge. It’s a different locale. It boasts different theming. In fact, it feels like a tonally different show from the first season. In my heart, it will forever remain a limited series, an anthology focusing on different characters and themes each year. It also didn’t help that the winter guilds saw the show compete in comedy, drama, AND limited series races, further muddying the waters. Again, to me, it’s clear. It should be a limited series.

But apparently it’s not to be.

So, HBO now has to factor in The White Lotus in the drama series race. I guarantee they did not fully expect that. They probably also didn’t fully expect for their midseason entry The Last of Us to emerge as The Greatest Show Ever Filmed (according to Twitter). Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good show. Maybe it’s better than a good show. It’s an interesting construction watching video games that allowed gamers to experience a more cinematic gameplay now double-back on itself and take those sprawling worlds to television. The Last of Us reportedly captures the soul of the video games that inspired it (I’ve never played them). The series became even more beloved online thanks to an elevated LBGTQIA+ presence (episode three’s Frank and Bill; Bella Ramsey’s Ellie).

And don’t think HBO isn’t going to play that angle up. Here’s a taste.

What remains to be seen in my opinion is whether or not the extremely online, Twitter-based adoration for the series will translate to Emmy nominations. It premiered in the competition-free January zone where it could soak up all the attention. It also isn’t really that different from AMC’s The Walking Dead which was never nominated for drama series. There’s no doubt that people strongly reacted to the show, but calls for Emmys for Ramsey and co-star Pedro Pascal feel at this moment a massive stretch.

That brings us to HBO’s current crown jewel Succession, which drops this Sunday.

Honestly, I’m here to tell you that nothing can beat this show for drama series. Nothing that has premiered. Nothing that will premiere.

First, it’s a great show, and from early reviews of the season, it looks to kick off the season in extremely strong style. Second, surprise! Surprise! It’s the final season. At one point, series creator Jesse Armstrong talked about a traditionally Shakespearean 5-act structure for the family saga. Something happened, and it’s now down to four seasons. We don’t know what happened officially. There are lots of rumors going around, of course, and the rumor mill is only going to fuel the series’ legacy. Finally, it’s just a great series. It’s brilliantly written, brilliantly acted, brilliantly directed. It’s also slyly political and politically relevant to modern-day media moguls (it’s a little Trumpy and it’s a lot Murdochy). And what I love about that is the series never hits you over the head with the comparisons. Yes, you realize they’re there, but it’s never the text. It’s always the subtext.

We’ll see how the final season lands, but it almost doesn’t matter (see: Game of Thrones). Emmy voters are conditioned to love this series, and they will vote for it across the board.

Also premiering this week is Showtime’s great drama Yellowjackets, which isn’t a likely threat for drama series but should at the very least match last year’s major nominations. It’s a truly great, daring, and harrowing series that brilliantly uses its ensemble to explore all kinds of female trauma and its lingering effects. You may ask, “If it’s so great, then why can’t it win drama series?” Well, I’m here to tell you that this new season takes big… bites. It does so in a way that will likely prove divisive amongst casual viewers. There’s no doubt it will have its rabid fans within the Television Academy, but can it overcome those who are too queasy to watch it.

In the end, the most interest within the drama series race is whether or not HBO can actually pull off four drama series nominations out of the eight slots. That’s a feat that’s only been matched once before by NBC. You kind of have to look for the excitement where you can because, with the Emmys, repeat wins seem to be largely “in” over the past decade. That frustrates online viewers every single time, and it will do so again this year if Ted Lasso and Succession repeat as I expect them to.

But what can you do? There’s a lot of television out there, more coming every single day.

There are only so many hours in the day for voters to watch these shows, and they’re not always going to embrace the shiny new objects.

There’s safety and comfort in loving the one you know.

We’ll be back each Friday with posts dedicated to the 2023 Emmy season. We’ll continue to explore the series races, but we’ll also look at acting and crafts as well. And they won’t come only from my windbag self. Other Awards Daily staff members will definitely weigh in too.

Until then…