2023 Emmys: Is There Potential Drama in the Drama Actress Race?

Last week, the biggest drama around the 2023 Drama Actress Emmy race was who would fill out the category as Yellowjackets lead Melanie Lynskey navigated her way to a seemingly inevitable win.

Last year, Lynskey received a nomination in the category for her outstanding work in Yellowjackets season one. Some predicted her to win, but Zendaya’s incendiary work in Euphoria proved too much to overcome. But Lynskey’s enormous popularity within Hollywood likely saw her rank second within the group that included Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh for the final season of Killing Eve, Laura Linney for the final season of Ozark (who arguably could also have come in second), and well ahead of the inexplicably nominated Reese Witherspoon for The Morning Show.

When Yellowjackets season two premiered with near-unanimous raves, it seemed all but engraved that Lynskey would win this year. And it would be an extraordinarily deserving and wonderful win. She brilliantly navigates truly tricky material as she embodies the adult Shauna, a true anti-hero if ever there has been one.

In fact, Taylor Swift’s recent inescapable hit “Anti-Hero” seems perfectly attuned to Shauna’s persona. Allow me to insert this earworm directly into your brain.

I have this thing where I get older but just never wiser
Midnights become my afternoons
When my depression works the graveyard shift
All of the people I’ve ghosted stand there in the room

I should not be left to my own devices
They come with prices and vices
I end up in crisis (tale as old as time)
I wake up screaming from dreaming
One day I’ll watch as you’re leaving
‘Cause you got tired of my scheming
(For the last time)

It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me

A nearly unapologetic murder, adult Shauna works across season two’s first episode to avoid being arrested for the crime. In one scene shown below, she enlists Misty’s (Christina Ricci) expertise in lying under questioning. It’s a tricky moment for Lynskey as she is required to find a performance that shows both the real Shauna — again, unapologetic for committing the crime — juxtaposed with a Shauna trying to create an innocent version of herself. It’s kind of a throwaway scene, but it nicely sets up a future, actual police questioning sequence that unleashes Lynskey’s substantial talents. Last week’s episode also features Lynskey navigating her forever-altered relationship with husband Jeff (Warren Kole). In a bit of a water cooler scene, she gains entry into Adam’s studio which is filled with art dedicated to his killer. Shauna controls the uncomfortable moment by redirecting Jeff’s attentions away from marital jealousy to lusty, rage-filled sex.

Lynskey’s best work in Yellowjackets comes in later episodes. No spoilers here, but she has two scenes that have “EMMY” engraved all over them. And no one would second guess that choice. Lynskey’s long career within the film and television worlds should be celebrated with this win. Her talent is obviously there, and the fact that she refuses to conform to Hollywood-centered standards of beauty (re: rail thin) makes the win a celebration of not only her talents but also of a woman who more closely resembles the everyday women of the world.

As I mentioned earlier, with Yellowjackets and Lynskey avoiding that sophomore slump so beautifully, the only real drama in this race last week seemed to be around who would fill out the remainder of the category. Of last year’s nominees, only Lynskey remains.

Right now on the Emmy Tracker, Lynskey feels most likely to be accompanied by The Last Of Us‘s breakthrough performance from Bella Ramsey and The Crown‘s Imelda Staunton (hers was one of two performances in the divisive fifth season to be recognized by BAFTA TV). I’ve been on the record saying how confused I was with House of the Dragon‘s potential acting nominations. Whatever the combination, I will remain surprised who emerges, if anyone at all. However, Emma D’Arcy’s 5-episode performance as the adult Rhaenyra Targaryen does feel likely to merit a nomination if any do. Their scenes are filled with gut-wrenching trauma and emotional devastation, an actor’s dream of course, which led to a Golden Globe nomination. Helen Mirren should never be counted out of an awards race. Her lead role against Harrison Ford in Paramount+’s 1923 received strong reviews. I mean, it’s friggin’ Helen Mirren. She’s always fantastic, and it’s exciting to see her in the race for this role.

Sharon Horgan also received raves for her work on AppleTV+’s Bad Sisters. While the series failed to make a huge splash in the winter guild season aside from two Writers Guild of America nominations, the show is slowly building online buzz as people continue to discover it. Previously Emmy-nominated for writing Catastrophe, Horgan could receive a nomination for her breakthrough performance work. I’ve yet to catch up to Bad Sisters, but it’s high on my list.

Lynskey’s co-stars in Yellowjackets, Juliette Lewis and Tawny Cypress, could also benefit from the heightened profile of season two to  receive actress nominations. Co-star Christina Ricci opted out of the lead race last year (smartly) and feels likely to continue campaigning in the supporting race. Of the two performances based on what I’ve seen so far, Cypress holds a slight edge over Lewis only because Lewis’s material feels the weakest. Most of her actions have, so far, been dedicated to exploring the wellness retreat / cult belonging to Lottie (Simone Kessell). She’s given the task of progressing much of the plot, not given memorable moments of her own. She’s still very good in the role, but she’s yet to be given the kind of moments that vault her over Tawny Cypress. Cypress’s Taissa has the most divisive, yet totally fascinating, character arc as she wanders blindly through her own blackout life, trying to understand what it is she exactly brought back from the wilderness that caused her to sacrifice her own dog. Her later scenes with series newcomer Lauren Ambrose center the character in ways she hasn’t been before, and I suspect audiences will warm to the actress and her performance because of it.

Last week, those actresses seemed to be the biggest contenders. Until this weekend…

HBO has never campaigned Succession‘s Sarah Snook in the lead actress race, opting to focus the lead presence on Logan (Brian Cox) and Kendall (Jeremy Strong) Roy. She received her first Emmy nomination for season two and received a second for season three in the supporting actress race. And that’s where she’s largely been recognized for the series with the very rare exception. She did merit a lead Screen Actors Guild nomination last year, but remember that organization doesn’t have supporting races for television performances. It was the only place she could be recognized.

Season three’s performance made me pause to consider whether or not she was correctly placed in the Emmy race. Shiv Roy’s leadership within the family steadily increased as the series progressed and Logan seemed to settle on her as the chosen successor. Still, HBO opted to include her in the supporting race where she shared space with J. Smith-Cameron. That likely split some votes, allowing Julia Garner to win again for her final Ozark season.

But as season four premiered with series-record ratings, one thing clearly emerged from the episode’s narrative: season four could be all about Shiv Roy. In the first episode, Snook’s Shiv dominated all strategic discussions between the Roy children and their attempts to one-up Logan in a takeover bid. Throughout the episode, she also struggled to adapt to her consistently deteriorating marriage to Tom (Emmy-winner Matthew Macfadyen). And then there are the final 10 minutes of the episode completely focused to an extraordinarily painful realization and acceptance that their marriage may finally be over. There’s no doubt Snook’s performance remains an outstanding contribution to the series, but should the remainder of season four maintain that focus on Shiv, then Snook’s placement in the supporting race would start to feel like category fraud.

There’s a precedent for this in another beloved series heading into its final series: Game of Thrones. Toward the end of its run in either season six or seven, HBO started campaigning Emilia Clarke in the lead race. She previously received three nominations in the supporting race before finally scoring a lead actress nomination for the final season. The obvious difference here is that maybe HBO didn’t realize that Succession season four would be the last season, so they didn’t have the opportunity to previously move Snook into the lead race as they did with Clarke in the Thrones penultimate season. Plus, as AD’s Joey Moser smartly pointed out on our latest Water Cooler Podcast, HBO understands the Emmy race. There is a scenario where they may want to clear a space in the supporting actress race to allow more performances from The White Lotus: Sicily to emerge as nominees. Jennifer Coolidge and Aubrey Plaza feel strongest as potential nominees, but the absence of Sarah Snook from that category would clear a path for Meghann Fahy, Sabrina Impacciatore, Simona Tabasco, Beatrice Grannò, or the recently everywhere Haley Lu Richardson.

But Snook’s dominance of season four’s first episode clearly puts her into a lead presence. Now, HBO has given no indication that she will be campaigned there, and ultimately as much as I love her performance so far, I’m not really sure I want them to. Succession‘s inevitable win in drama series would likely carry Snook’s performance to a win, helping HBO set up a Schitt’s Creek-like dominance of the performance categories in September’s Emmys. Granted, J. Smith-Cameron winning supporting actress would require the series to give her far more material than evidenced in the first episode.

I loved both performances of Snook and Lynskey, but my heart lives with the anti-hero that is Shauna Shipman. I’m not sure I want Shiv Roy taking that away from her.

3/31 Drama Actress Predictions

1. Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
2. Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
3. Imelda Staunton, The Crown
4. Helen Mirren, 1923
5. Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon
6. Tawny Cypress, Yellowjackets