2023 Oscar Predictions – Who Are the Oscar Voters?

Here we finally are, after a long season of film festivals, screenings, box-office records, guild awards, FYC ads, and tweets. Lots and lots of tweets. The Oscar voters are locking it in. Figuring out what they’re going to do is never easy. Well, it is in some ways. You just have to try to figure out who they are now. Who are they? How do they see themselves in their industry, their country, the world?

We’re living through a generational shift, a “fourth turning” that will likely end everything that was built up and celebrated for the past 80 years or so. It has been a wild ride for the Oscars. But to go from their glory days of icons and blockbusters, having cultural relevance, moving the needle, lighting the world with their shimmering glory — to now, where they are a flicker of their former selves, with their last Best Picture winner a movie that didn’t even need to open in a movie theater. That’s quite an arc.

This year won’t decide whether this is the end of the Oscars or not. But it is most certainly the end of the Oscars as they once were. I don’t know where they go from here but from the looks of it, there aren’t going to be many surprises on Oscar night. It is worth taking a look back at where they came from and where they might be going.

Coming out of World War I, and into the Roaring ’20s, the Oscars began. It was the age the individualism, hedonism, abandonment, and wildness (see: Babylon). Then the stock market crashed and a dark cloud blanketed the country, and with us, the planet. Societies were moving out of the individualism phase and into the collectivism phase. FDR, the New Deal, the rise of unions, and progressive left ideology began to simmer through film and Hollywood.

As the age of collectivism reached its peak, heading out of World War II and into the utopian 1950s, the witch hunts upended Hollywood, creating a climate of fear that there were Commies, Commies, everywhere. In fact, the very thing McCarthy and studio heads wanted to prevent is now actually happening in American culture. It isn’t communism exactly but it’s close enough. It might as well be since it is about making everyone equal — forcing it if necessary with mandates and rules and a strident code of behavior that discourages personal achievement on merit alone and the insistence that rewards only went to those who benefit from white cis-gendered privilege — male or female.

After the 1950s, culture was upended again as a new phase of individualism was about to reach its apex in the 1960s and 1970s. But as we headed through the 1980s America would hit our high of individualism, right around the time I was graduating high school, in 1983 and so would begin the decline back towards collectivism which would begin to rise once again around 2003.

We are now hitting the apex of our collectivism era and we’re in yet another “witch hunt phase,” which, according to the book, How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future. This book bases its theory on 80-year cycles which are divided into two 40-year cycles, the “we” phase (collectivism) and the “me” phase (individualism).

I made a chart:

What’s remarkable about this book is that they were able to predict from all the way back in 2011 where we’d be in 2023. I’m not kidding. They write:

Senator Joseph McCarthy was an American promoter of this witch-hunt attitude at America’s most recent “We” Zenith of 1943 (see the “House Un-American Activities Committee,” 1937–1953); Adolf Hitler was the German promoter (see the Holocaust, 1933–1945); and Joseph Stalin was the Soviet promoter (see the Great Purge, 1936–1938). Our hope is that we might collectively choose to skip this development as we approach the “We” Zenith of 2023. If enough of us are aware of this trend toward judgmental self-righteousness, perhaps we can resist demonizing those who disagree with us and avoid the societal polarization that results from it. A truly great society is one in which being unpopular can be safe.

It’s kind of amazing. And in fact, if you look back on the history of the Oscars at the box office, you will find that nearly all Best Picture winners were in the top 5 or top 10 at the box office, and many of them #1 at the box office until around 1979.

Something shifted at that point because the Oscars were being used as publicity to make money. Before that, they opened, they did well, and they won Oscars. Then it became they opened small, won Oscars, then made a huge amount of money afterwards.

A reader named Max wrote me the following in an email:

I was surprised to find that between 1978 and 2011, the film that won or tied for the most Oscars per ceremony also won best picture (2012 broke this run when Argo won 3 awards and Life of Pi won 4, but that was a weird year, and if Affleck had been nominated for director he probably would have won which would have flipped the numbers). This finally solves a mystery that has been bugging me for two decades–how did Gladiator and Chicago win best picture without winning director or screenplay? Even when I was a teenager I couldn’t wrap my head around this. How could Traffic be the best written and directed movie of the year, but not the best all-around? Same with The Pianist. But now I realize that Gladiator and Chicago won best picture because they won the most Oscars at their respective ceremonies. This seems so counterintuitive because I’ve gotten used to movies like Gravity, Mad Max, and Dune sweeping technical awards (and even directing) without really having a shot at best picture (all of my friends thought Gravity had it in the bag as it kept racking up awards, but I knew it was going to be 12 Years, no question).

Best Picture is not really the top prize anymore — because of the preferential ballot it’s a negotiated settlement and that, probably more than anything, has led to the shrinking of the Oscars, in terms of audience and influence. This is not an industry that rewards success anymore if that success is tied to white, cis-gendered male. Out are the titans like Clint Eastwood, Jack Nicholson, John Ford — in are those who mostly remain in the shadows, still powerful and dominant but invisible as they try to put marginalized groups in the spotlight. They do this to protect themselves and to be “good people doing good things.”

That need, though, has led to a shrinking of everything, everywhere all at once. But with this new movie by the Daniels which merges the styles of video games, TikTok, and hand-held entertainment along with intersectional politics and great awakening/awokenings, perhaps they see a potential life raft — that movie can save us.

It’s crazy that the movie that actually saves them is one they probably won’t vote for. How do you reward a film produced by, starring, directing white men? Alpha dudes who conquered the box office and then some? You don’t. You can’t. Not in 2023. You must shrink back into the shadows and pretend you aren’t there. Hide the alpha males away for now because the longer they stand out there in the light the bigger of a problem they become. Except, you know, to everyone outside of the insular bubble of Hollywood and the Oscars.

The idea of the box office defining worth or success is what has fueled the Oscars for nearly all of their existence. It’s strange to have arrived in 2023 with the last movie that won a streaming film that didn’t make any money at the box office. If that isn’t collectivism I don’t know what is.

So the question is, now that we’ve arrived at the apex, we’re tearing each other part with constant paranoia, witch hunts, accusations — casual condemnations of Academy voters and critics and bloggers for being racists or xenophobes or homophobes or transphobes — how we define what the Academy is now, what the film industry is and what the Oscars mean at all.

From where I sit, film awards seem to validate ideology more than they do anything else. Does it say the RIGHT thing? Does it make the RIGHT point? Does it amplify the RIGHT people? Does it move the needle on the issues Democratic voters care about? I always wonder how it is that John Oliver continues to win awards, or Stephen Colbert, or any of these guys when they are no longer funny. They are not all that different from Rachel Maddow or any other host on MSNBC. Yet why do they always win awards? Why are they nominated year after year? There is nothing else but that?

The answer that comes back is that it’s all an insulated, isolated bubble. Ideas are trapped inside of it. When they try to get out, they hit the surface of the bubble and bounce back down again.

Back in the 1970s, the baby boomers had exploded outward, reinvented culture as the “counter-culture.” They essentially invented the 1970s-era of director-driven Cinema with a capital C. The 1940s and the 1950s represented ideologically aligned fare that wanted to depict America a certain way and set the tone for cultural acceptance. But that generation is on the way out. The generation coming in was raised on franchise movies and branding.

Now, those baby boomers are old and on their way out. The new breed of filmmaker, critic, Oscar voter has risen up and they seem transfixed by identity. What excites them is making change for marginalized groups — how they define those who dominate culture yet must also always be seen as oppressed for the whole machine to function properly.

This year represents a distinct crossroads for voters. The question of whether anything can win but Everything is the wrong question. The question is who are the Oscar voters now? What is they’re looking for? How will they define their industry as it struggles to survive? Are they happiest when they can stand behind a movie that will get them off the hook for still being 80% white, 70% male? Probably.

In a year where Steven Spielberg should be winning his third Oscar for The Fabelmans, Top Gun Maverick should be winning Best Picture, Cate Blanchett should be winning Best Actress and Kerry Condon should be winning Supporting – it’s probably not going to go that way. That isn’t a big tragedy. For this community, how they’ve changed, who they want to be now, it is victory. For those who believe that if a movie like Everything Everywhere wins a whole bunch of Oscars it will change the film industry and maybe the world, what’s so wrong about believing that, at least for one more week.

I can’t blame them for wanting to change things and improve things for people. There is no way it isn’t going to be great to see Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan win Oscars. It will a night where dreams come true. For all of those newly grown Zoomers they will forever look to the Oscars to make the right moves, moves like that. And by the end of it, Yeoh will finally have an Oscar. There ain’t nothing wrong with that.

Here are my predictions. Have a nice weekend.

Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once (PGA/DGA/SAG)
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
All Quiet on the Western Front
Tár
Elvis
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Triangle of Sadness

Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living

Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness

Best Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis

Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Tár
Empire of Light
Bardo

Best Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans

Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman

Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Original Score
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Song
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR or “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Best Documentary
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Navalny
All That Breathes
A House Made of Splinters

Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The Flying Sailor
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants

Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride

Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate