Awards Daily Oscar Ballots: Final Results!

Anywhich way we look at it, Everything Everywhere is a unique and extraordinary phenomenon.

Rob was up all night collating and tabulating and calculating all the mind-boggling math to give us the final results of our annual Awards Daily Oscar Ballot experiment.

We have a lot of things to publish today, so I’ll summarize my thoughts very briefly. First thing that jumps out at me:

With 607 ballots, in Round One, Everything Everywhere got 40% of the ballots and Tar got 17%… gah!

I think that’s one of the largest head starts in Round One in AD ballot history. But as jaw-dropping as that first leap out of the gate may be, look how fast EEAAO stalls out. By Round 5, it only accumulates 11 more ballots!

304 ballots is this year’s magic number to pass 50% and win Best Picture.  And despite it’s massive lead, it still takes EEAAO 7 full rounds of redistribution to pass 50%.

In a parallel multiverse, let’s imagine there were only 5 nominees… ALL the ballots for Fabelmans, Elvis, Triangle of Sadness, Avatar 2, Women Talking together would only add up to 83 ballots.

So even if all those 83 lower-5 ballots were to go to Tar, the first round tally would still be:
EEAAO with 243 ballots = 40%
TAR with 199 ballots = 32%

Which seems to show me that EEAAO actually struggled on the BP down ballot, but the down ballot didn’t matter. (It also shows how impossible it is that any film, no matter how insanely popular, can ever pass 50% in a field of 5 with no preferential ballot.)

It also means, looking only at the #1 votes in Round One, that 60% of our readers wanted Anything Else to win instead of EEAAO. But ultimately, the traditionalists were split between Inisherin and Tar, and in the final round, the Inisherin contingent broke more heavily in favor of Everything Everything All at Once, the movie that we’ve all known for months would prevail.

Maybe the biggest surprise in these results is to see how many devoted fans of The Banshees of Inisherin have been quietly lurking while the battle between Tar and Everything Everywhere raged so loudly. What a refreshing shock to see Colin Farrell (with 34%) slipped ahead of Brendan Fraser (with 29%) and Austin Butler (with 24%). Rounded off, in simpler clunkier terms, Farrell got about 1/3rd of the AD ballots, while Fraser and Butler were neck and neck with each getting about 1/4th of the ballots.

I love how this also reminds us that the “Best” in any category can go home with an Oscar even if 2/3rds of the Academy voted for somebody else.

All of you will rightly derive your own interpretations, and we look forward to hearing the reader analysis.

Thank you, Rob, for another fantastic lesson in the inner workings of all the ballot-shuffling and number-juggling that builds the Oscar winners.

Best Picture spreadsheet

Final Results spreadsheets