2023 Emmy Predictions: Sarah Snook Officially Jumps Into the Lead Actress Race

This week, the race for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series was shaken up in a major way when Sarah Snook officially chose to submit in the lead race after two consecutive nominations for supporting. The move didn’t come as a surprise to many that pay attention to the Emmy race; instead, it felt like a move that was a long time coming.

With two previous nominations, Snook is a fan favorite among Emmy voters and fans alike, and there’s been a growing demand to make sure she finally gets recognized for the HBO’s monumental final season. Now, all three Roy siblings will be submitted in their respective lead categories, and there is very little getting in Snook’s way.

Overall, it’s an odd year in the lead actress race. Most of the past contenders are out of contention this year or have come to an end, and there aren’t a lot of obvious performances lining up to replace them. Even should-be locks like Elisabeth Moss and Imelda Staunton feel weakened by seasons that failed to resonate with audiences in a major way.

In fact, this year’s lineup is so influx that some networks are even whispering around the idea of bumping up Jennifer Coolidge or Rhea Seehorn into the lead race just because they can.

Will Genre Performances Continue to Make Way at the Television Academy?

This year, there are a handful of new performances that have excited fans and catapulted into the center of the Emmy conversation. In a normal year, it would probably have been an uphill battle for performers like Bella Ramsey and Emma D’Arcy to make it into the lead actress race. However, with both The Last of Us and House of the Dragon proving to be popular overall, their performances cannot be ignored.

Ramsey is in a particularly interesting position. When The Last of Us premiered at the top of the year, it instantly became a water cooler sensation. Audiences were immediately obsessed with each installment in the never-ending zombie genre with a lot of focus on Ramsey’s performance. Teenagers are rarely singled out by the Television Academy, but there’s an easy parallel to be made between Bella Ramsey and previous awards darling Millie Bobby Brown. It also doesn’t hurt that audiences have loved them since their breakout role on Game of Thrones.

Yellowjackets

What makes this year’s lead actress competition unique is the decision to have no less than four of the Yellowjackets women compete against each other in the lead race. Obviously co-stars being submitted against each other in the supporting race is to be expected; however, it is very rare to see a show submit multiple contenders in the lead races.

It’s a potentially smart move on Showtime’s part because if any ensemble deserves to fill up the lead actress race it is Yellowjackets. What might get in their way, however, is the fact that there’s not a clear direction for voters to go. Alongside Lynskey, it would make perfect sense to nominate Sophie Nelisse as they work in perfect tandem playing Shauna twenty years apart. They complement each other perfectly, and you could argue that Lynskey’s performance would never hit as well without the side by side comparison to a younger Shauna. However, Nelisse is still a relative newcomer to Hollywood, and we rarely see actors in their early 20s singled out at the Emmys (although it is becoming more common).

Rounding out the contenders from the adult cast are Juliette Lewis and Tawny Cypress. Lewis was wrongfully overlooked for the first season and certainly deserves recognition, but in the second season there is a lot of deserved attention on Cypress’s hardened portrayal of Taissa.

Other Possibilities

In a wide-open field of contenders it leaves room for some left field options, and this year there’s a field of actresses that have the possibility of being the sole representation for their show.

This past week, The Diplomat premiered on Netflix, and it immediately reminded critics of the broadcast dramas of yesteryear that audiences are desperate to see again. While not reinventing the genre in any form, many have found it fun and easy to follow, anchored by a lead performance from Keri Russell who at this point is criminally overdue for her first Emmy.

Three-time Emmy nominee Betty Gilpin is front and center in Mrs. Davis, the wild new Damon Lindelof drama that has left audiences and critics genuinely stumped on how to categorize it. After years of fans demanding Gilpin be front and center in a show of her own, she is finally given something inventive to work with, and while it may not be everyone’s cup of tea, critics have unanimously praised Gilpin.

Two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank is in contention for the first Emmy nomination of her career with the new ABC drama Alaska Daily. Intertwining Tom McCarthy’s knack for investigative journalism with our current true crime obsession, Alaska Daily became the surprise hit of the fall TV season and Swank earned a Golden Globe nomination.

Frontrunners

Sarah Snook, Succession

Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

Strong Possibilities

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

In The Conversation

Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon

Helen Mirren, 1923

Tawny Cypress, Yellowjackets