Presenting Predictions for This Year’s Tony Awards!

Will the Tony Awards (yes, they are happening!) go for the splashy, tappy Some Like It Hot? Or will they vote for the intimate, emotional Kimberly Akimbo? Will 2 non-binary performers make history in two musical acting categories? What to make of that super competitive Revival of the Musical category? Will Leopoldstadt run the table in the play races?

There are a lot of tight races, so let’s just do a run-down of the probable winners and their competition, shall we?

Best Musical
Will Win: Kimberly Akimbo
Could Win: Some Like It Hot

Some Like It Hot leads with 13 nominations and Akimbo has 8, but the nomination leader doesn’t always take the top prize. In the last five years, only A Strange Loop and Hadestown led the way and took Best Musical.

Best Play
Will Win: Leopoldstadt
Could Win: Fat Ham

Best Revival of a Musical
Will Win: Parade
Could Win: Into the Woods

Best Revival of a Play
Will Win: Topdog/Underdog
Could Win: A Doll’s House

I keep going back and forth on this. Could A Doll’s House‘s big win be direction while Kenny Leon’s production surprises here?

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical
Will Win: J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Could Win: Ben Platt, Parade

Since 2000, when more than one actor is up for the same musical (Ghee shares their nomination with Christian Borle), one of the actors usually prevails.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Will Win: Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Could Win: Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street or Michaela Diamond, Parade

The most competitive acting category by far.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Will Win: Alex Newell, Shucked
Could Win: Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo

Newell is going to tear the roof off the house during their performance, and a Tony win will only be the icing on the cake.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical 
Will Win: Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
Could Win: Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Will Win: Sean Hayes, Good Night, Oscar
Could Win: Wendell Pierce, Death of a Salesman

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Will Win: Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
Could Win: Jessica Chastain, A Doll’s House

This could go either way. If Chastain wins, it could also take Revival.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Will Win: Brandon Uranowitz, Leopoldstadt
Could Win: Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Uranowitz is, strangely, the only acting nominee for his play, and he is quite overdue.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Will Win: Miriam Silverman, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Could Win: Nikki Crawford, Fat Ham

Best Direction of a Musical
Will Win: Michael Arden, Parade
Could Win: Lear deBessonet, Into the Woods

Best Direction of a Play
Will Win: Patrick Marber, Leopoldstadt
Could Win: Jamie Lloyd, A Doll’s House

Best Book of a Musical
Will Win: Kimberly Akimbo
Could Win: Some Like It Hot

Best Score
Will Win: Kimberly Akimbo
Could Win: Some Like It Hot

Best Choreography
Will Win: Some Like It Hot
Could Win: New York, New York