2024 Oscar Predictions — The Oppenheimer-Barbie Vibe

Oppenheimer and Barbie are opening the same weekend (July 21) and the internet is having a blast, so to speak. This has prompted several Twitter wits to visualize a surreal marriage of two totally disparate concepts, though both somehow related to the utopian 1950s. I don’t think it’s THAT surprising, since I’ve been writing so often about how Hollywood is stilted with storytelling in the same way they were back then, in an effort to push a utopian reality upon us that doesn’t exist.

From Creativebloq:

Found out #Barbie & #Oppenheimer were coming out on the same day… had to go to @midjourney_ai to make a poster for the double feature pic.twitter.com/QM8FfzVysx

— Sam Kushell (@playitagainme) June 7, 2023

never thought that 5 boys would be better at designing a joke poster for july 21st than designing a powerpoint presentation for a college assignment#Barbie #Oppenheimer #Barbenheimer pic.twitter.com/3ldzevzM2J

— schizzaphrenia (@anglespizza) June 11, 2023

https://twitter.com/lacinestacion/status/1648068571757531136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1648068571757531136%7Ctwgr%5E2720d1330dd85b1bb4243131f5d91da9b27940d9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.creativebloq.com%2Fnews%2Fbarbie-oppenheimer

New Barbie Oppenheimer poster just dropped!!! pic.twitter.com/uAGXeSJesa

— Cassie Grace (@whovianrad) December 16, 2022

We kind of have to talk about this. It’s not just a coincidence, I don’t think, that these films are resonating as they are in film culture. I can’t help but see the patterns of history at play.

Barbie is beloved already because Greta Gerwig is beloved. The idea that she made this movie with Margot Robbie is just too much for the internet to handle. Barbie is in the midst of an image makeover to become queer-friendly and intersectional. The new Barbie multiverse is as gay as anyone could possibly imagine and the internet loves it for that.

It’s also worth noting that the first Barbie doll was released in 1958. Back then, the ideal of the perfect young woman easily agreed upon. She was everywhere. And of course, this idea was beautifully explored in the Twilight Zone episode “Number 12 Looks Just Like You.” (1964)

The Twilight Zone (1959-1964) so perfectly captured the undercurrents of what was happening on the cups of the 1960s. And at some point (maybe not now) artists and writers will be let out of their cages and will perhaps come up with this level of subversive genius again. Barbie, the movie, is very like the world depicted in that episode of the Twilight Zone.

I can’t think of anything that reminds me of what it’s like to live in 2023 than this one, not so much in terms of appearance conformity, but this idea of necessary conformity. We all must think alike and believe the same things and even speak the exact same way. When we are totally compliant we have achieved the highest state of euphoria.

https://youtu.be/ZLgiZBOE-D4

Similarly, Oppenheimer tracks the life of the brilliant J. Robert Oppenheimer, from the time his theories lead to building the A-bomb to being targeted by the FBI and ostracized from the government. Oppenheimer was hauled in front of a panel in 1954, which was the height of the Red Scare. Although the McCarthy hearing began in March, it was not until his daily persecutions were broadcast gavel to gavel for 2 months on live TV that the public outcry exposed the senator’s disgrace. It was 3 years after Julius and Ethel Rosenberg were convicted of espionage and only a year after execution for being Russian spies. It was two months after Communists from Puerto Rico shoot at 5 congressman on Capitol Hill, leading to their convictions for “seditious conspiracy.”

And yes, it was the witch hunts that inspired Arthur Miller’s The Crucible (1953), and yet another classic Twilight Zone episode in 1960:

We’re living through another 1954 right now, though most people who cover the Oscars and film in the trades or on Twitter don’t seem to realize it. That’s because wealth, culture and power is now in the hands of the Left, not the Right as it was in 1954. Too many people can’t really see just how bad it is because most are caught up in the same kind of fear and hysteria that was alive and well in the 1950s. And we don’t have Rod Serlings or Arthur Millers who would dare make such subversive commentary about it today.

Though Oppenheimer desperately tried to prove his innocence in front of a government panel (with, a few notable exceptions, the strong support of those who worked with him on the Manhattan Project and elsewhere), it was useless. The political enemies he made (chief among them Lewis Strauss) were pulling the strings of the panel. He was regarded with paranoia and suspicion, and his security clearance was revoked. This will all be depicted in Nolan’s film.

The latest witch hunt involves Scott Menzel and the Hollywood Critics Association, as there are now yet more accusations of racism on Twitter. Ironically, the HCA was overtly and deliberately Diverse, Inclusive and Equitable, as far as their publicity materials went, but that doesn’t matter. Bias was observed and accusations made.

“In my opinion, they wanted a Black female public-facing token President but brought in without any announcement, a white female Treasurer, Alisa, to be studio-facing with financial transparency alongside Menzel,” said Nikki Fowler, who has now resigned.

The HCA is what one might call “embattled” by now, though its members — a few of whom write for this site — are honest and decent people. The whole thing reminds me of my favorite Far Side cartoon:

In case you might wonder what it was like to live through a 1954-like era, look no further than right here, right now. Just one accusation is enough to bring the whole thing toppling down. The HCA hasn’t folded yet, as far as I know, but what they once aspired to be, they can’t be. You have to be in COMPLIANCE or else. True of the Golden Globes, the Academy, the poor BAFTAs. Is there anything left? Well, I guess we’ll see.

What the awards seem to be now are a means to reward the “correct” view. They write the ideology into films and television. Then voters reward the ideology with statues and applause. It’s kind of the thing that McCarthy was worried about, ideological indoctrination infecting all areas of American life. There is an irony in that.

Scott Menzel and the HCA represent the most recent additions to the awards enclave. And yes, like every awards show, they often function essentially as PR for the movies and the filmmakers. If you thought it was anything more important than that, then you have my sympathies. I personally don’t think any of it is that important, friends, despite how it’s dressed up, with important speeches and the statements put out. When film awards are as political as politics — well, they kind of seem to have lost the plot.

I doubt very many people who write about Oppenheimer will understand just how timely it actually is, and not because the world, once again, might be facing nuclear war. It is a cautionary tale about someone mistreated by a government drunk on power and too-easily given over to authoritarianism. The lesson should probably be that if you’re on the side of the witch hunts, no matter how justified you believe they are at the time, you are always on the wrong side. That’s because it means persecuting people for “spectral evidence,” for what is believed to be inside their heads but cannot be proven. In Salem Village, they eventually dismissed the existence of “spectral evidence,” and after that, the witch trials collapsed.

In 2022, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm vacated the decision to revoke Oppenheimer’s clearance, but as the Nuclear Secrecy blog points out:

This gets at a very tricky aspect of the Oppenheimer affair. The motivation for the whole thing was entirely a sham. There were no real concerns that Oppenheimer was a danger to the country or a spy. It was pure political character assassination.

Oppenheimer was trying to persuade our government, through the administrations of two presidents, to de-escalate the buildup to nuclear war and to halt development of the H-bomb. That alone made our government suspect he might be a Russian spy. But even if they didn’t suspect it, they had to shut him up — and what better way to do that than to destroy his life and legacy in a closed-door political inquisition where concepts like “due process” didn’t apply?

Barbie is, in its own way, the absolutely perfect film for 2023. It has the aspirational euphoria always on display at award shows now. We don’t see a lot of snarky speeches anymore, not anti-establishment screeds — it seems to me that what we see verges on pro-war, not anti-war. We see the kind of ruddy-cheeked bliss that can only come from a collective sense of purpose achieved at long last.

That serenity we see in films of the 1950s is not unlike the same serenity we see now in films today. Everyone is so happy because no one can really be portrayed as BAD.

(h/t Marshall Flores)

So the question then becomes: can Barbie be “serious” or “important” enough to get a Best Picture and/or a Best Director nomination? Maybe. Everything, Everywhere All at Once wasn’t exactly “important.” It was inventive, fun and had an LGBTQIA story at its center. It was also uplifting. Barbie might center on a blonde female but its cast is plenty intersectional. More than that, Greta Gerwig herself has never won an Oscar and has built up credibility in the industry. I would not count it out. There has to be some fun involved in the Oscars, to bring back the days when blockbusters (if it makes money) could also be named Best Picture of the Year.

But what’s interesting about this year is that a film like Barbie will be juxtaposed against some very dark films, like Oppenheimer is sure to be. There is no way that film has a happy ending because Oppenheimer himself did not.

The darkness and light between Oppenheimer and Barbie is probably going to be a major part of  the story for this year, or at least one of them. The idea that people will gravitate toward aspirational content is probably right. But as usual, I’m looking for the dark.

Speaking of dark, David Fincher’s The Killer will slice through the artifice of right now like a hot knife and I’m here for it. The graphic novel is a brilliant existential analysis of so much of our modern life told in an honest way by an observant but doomed assassin. I haven’t finished it yet but it seems very No Country for Old Men to me, or Se7en — films that are about a doomed culture because we’re a doomed species who are always undone by our best intentions.

Gold Derby is not yet open for business for Best Picture and AwardsWatch has not updated since last May (no reason to). So I dove into Reddit’s OscarRace subreddit to see what was cooking there. ChrisMovieExpert has these Best Picture predictions (alphabetical):

Best Picture

• Barbie
• The Color Purple
• Dune: Part Two
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• The Zone of Interest

Alt: Anatomy of a Fall, Asteroid City, How Do You Live?, The Killer, La Chimera, May December, Poor Things, Rustin, Saltburn

So here’s the thing about the Oscars that I think probably not a lot of people out there writing about the Oscars focus on enough: big directors still rule. They might not rule in terms of what wins Best Picure, but when it comes to nominees they still rule. So if you are not factoring in David Fincher and The Killer as being one of the most anticipated films by one of the most revered directors today, then you’re doing the Oscars wrong. You have to always start with the directors.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is animation. So far, other than 2009 and 2010, animated films have not made it into the Best Picture race, so I will not count this among the frontrunners for now. The Zone of Interest was a big deal at Cannes, but I’m not sure it will be remembered months later. The same goes for Air.

That means, my Best Picture predictions would be as follows (not alphabetical):

Best Picture: (starting with director, then move down the list of films that have the right stuff otherwise, without a big name director)
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
The Killer
Napoleon
Next Goal Wins
Maestro
The Color Purple
Poor Things
Past Lives

Then my alts: Saltburn, Barbie, Ferrari, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Zone of Interest

You can read the rest of their predictions over at r/OscarRace. I’ll put out the ones I think might be strong in the majors:

Here are the rest of mine, and they are very premature, not to be taken seriously. It’s just a rough estimate of how it might go, give or take a female director here or there.

Best Director:
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
David Fincher, The Killer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Alts: Celine Song, Past Lives; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Emerald Fennell, Saltburn; Greta Gerbig, Barbie; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Leo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Michael Fassbender, The Killer (or Next Goal Wins)
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Alts: Adam Driver, Ferrari; Barry Keoghan, Saltburn; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Best Actress:
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie

Alts: Greta Lee, Past Lives; Annette Bening, Nyad

Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Matt Damon, Oppenheimer
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Kaimana, Next Goal Wins
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Alts: Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

That’s all I have for today. Have a great weekend and go easy on each other.