2023 Emmy Predictions: Predicting the Wildly Unpredictable Comedy Guest Acting Races

Jalal Haddad contributed to this article.

If you think the Guest Drama performance categories are difficult to predict, then the Guest Comedy races say, “Hold my beer.”

Since 2009, NBC’s Saturday Night Live has amassed a whopping 45 nominations in the Guest Comedy categories, a stunning number by any measure. The variety comedy series took home 14 wins of those nominations. Justin Timberlake and Tina Fey took home the first wins for the series thanks to their pop culture phenom performances of “Dick in a Box” and Sarah Palin, respectively. Those wins opened the door for the Television Academy to break the previous trend of largely awarding beloved cultural icons with something of a consolation prize. I’m talking about Mel Brooks’s 3 consecutive wins for NBC’s Mad About You. Or earlier awards for Tim Conway, Carl Reiner, Martin Sheen, Elaine Stritch, or Cloris Leachman.

Since then, Saturday Night Live represented over half the wins across both Actor and Actress categories. Occasionally, we see memorable performances break through from beloved series, snapping the SNL hold on the category. Uzo Aduba and Jane Lynch’s beloved work in Orange Is the New Black and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, respectively, were both undeniable in their years and eventually led to supporting nominations in subsequent years as their roles grew in stature.

But oddly enough, last year, only a single guest host from Saturday Night Live broke through with a nomination — Jerrod Carmichael — and failed to produce a win. The voting body instead went with performances from series nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series. Hacks alone saw five nominations across both categories, and Ted Lasso provided three. That dovetails nicely with what we talked about last week in the Drama Guest performances — how deeply will conversation-leading series dominate the Guest performance races.

On top of shifting sensibilities a slight change in the voting method could lead to some unexpected results. For the past six years voters have been able to vote for as many contenders as they please in the nomination phase of voting. Now they’ve reverted back to only allowing a voter to check off as many contenders as a category will allow. So if a category calls for seven nominees voters can only select their seven favorites. This could lead to fewer blanket nominations across a single show, as we’ve seen recently for comedies like SNL or Hacks.

That brings us to the 2023 Emmy Awards. Is this an “up” year for Saturday Night Live? Or is this a year where series ending their runs fill the Guest Comedy acting races as they likely will on the Drama Guest acting side? What helps increase that possibility is the fact that fading series like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Barry, or Ted Lasso don’t really have a potential nominee pool as robust as they did in previous seasons. Barry, in fact, has never seen a nomination in either category, and looking at its final season, it’s hard to imagine anyone breaking through. Perhaps there’s the opportunity to namecheck Fred Armisen or even Oscar-winning directors Sian Heder or Guillermo del Toro for their brief stints on Barry, but their roles are truly very small and are unlikely to merit significant attention.

It’s much more likely that this is a return to normalcy for Saturday Night Live as there are several actors and actresses in contention in the main performances races who are also eligible for Guest nominations. Across the 2023 Emmy season, Jenna Ortega, Aubrey Plaza, Quinta Brunson, Molly Shannon, Steve Martin, Martin Short, Dave Chappelle, and Pedro Pascal all hosted buzzy episodes of the series. Pascal, in particular, seems primed for a nomination to accompany his work in The Last of Us with his celebrated HBO’s Mario Kart parody, a true breakout sensation that was shared across social media platforms for days because it was so spot-on.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at both categories in greater depth.

But first, let’s remember the rules we developed last week:

• Be a Star (See: Brad Pitt for his 2-minute performance as Dr. Anthony Fauci in Saturday Night Live)
• Host Saturday Night Live (I’m not even going to list an example. You don’t have that much time.)
• Be Cherry Jones
• Give Any Kind of Performance in a Conversation-Dominating Series (i.e. #justiceforbarb, Extra Points If You’re Claire Foy (See: The Crown)

Got it? Ok, here we go.

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Last year, Hacks dominated this category with four nominations. It’s likely that ABC’s Abbott Elementary will step into a few of those roles as Taraji P. Henson gave an incredibly well received and much discussed performance on the comedy frontrunner. That likely puts her into the number one slot. Popularity for the series will likely pull in another contender in Ayo Edebiri who also benefits from her celebrated (likely Emmy-nominated) involvement in FX’s The Bear.

Also likely to be dually nominated will be Harriet Walter whose performance as Rebecca’s mother on Ted Lasso which would be her second nomination for the series and would likely match her anticipated second guest nomination for HBO’s Succession. Former Guest Actress in a Comedy Series nominee Becky Ann Baker (Girls) could also join for her one episode run as Ted’s estranged mother on the Apple series. And there’s always former Supporting Actress nominee Sarah Niles who, despite only appearing in a handful of scenes, could be namechecked to a nomination. I would not include Jodi Balfour’s controversial and broadly disliked character.

It remains to be seen how fondly the Television Academy will remember the second season of Hulu’s Only Murders In the Building. As a campaign strategy for season one, it premiered in between the Phase 1 and Phase 2 voting windows and ran all through the end of Phase 2. It didn’t help the series win major Emmy Awards as season one went home empty-handed at the Primetime Emmy ceremony, but season two did feature two memorable comedic performances from beloved, awards-winning actresses like Tina Fey, Jane Lynch, Amy Schumer, and Shirley MacLaine. A sure sign that the Television Academy moved on from what we’ll call “legacy” nominations, MacLaine failed to garner an expected nomination for her guest-starring turn on Downton Abbey, so we shouldn’t automatically expect that she shows here.

Further muddying the nomination waters is the existence of Peacock’s Poker Face. The comedy series behaves like an anthology series with each episode offering a new cast outside of lead actress Natasha Lyonne. That opens up the potential to see three or four nominees in this category from that show alone, should the Television Academy embrace it. Beloved stars Judith Light and Cherry Jones seem most likely to benefit here, but recent Oscar nominees Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu (also eligible for roles in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and American Born Chinese) as well as Ellen Barkin are also in the conversation.

That leaves Saturday Night Live to fill the remaining slots with any one of the above-mentioned star performances. Quinta Brunson feels most likely on the actress side, but I wouldn’t count out Molly Shannon for returning to her role as Sally O’Malley (“I’m 50! Fifty years old!”).

SNL isn’t the only sketch comedy to be celebrated in the guest acting categories. In recent years A Black Lady Sketch Show has earned surprise nominations for both Issa Rae and Yvette Nicole Brown. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that a beloved performer like Brown could return or an Emmy favorite like Tracee Ellis Ross.

For my money, one of the most impactful Guest Comedy performances of the 2023 Emmy season has to be Romy Rosemont for her work as Sally’s mother in Barry. That’s largely for the wonderful early season scene in which Sally has a dramatic panic attack that largely goes unnoticed by her mother, fully focused on ordering at a drive-through.

Predicted Nominees

1. Taraji P. Henson, Abbott Elementary
2. Judith Light, Poker Face
3. Quinta Brunson, Saturday Night Live
4. Harriet Walter, Ted Lasso
5. Shirley MacLaine, Only Murders in the Building
6. Cherry Jones, Poker Face

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

This remains the year of Pedro Pascal. After kicking it off with the critically acclaimed The Last of Us, he hosted Saturday Night Live and helped deliver one of the most viral moments of the season in HBO’s Mario Kart. Then, he returned to the uneven but still popular third season of Disney+’s The Mandalorian. He will be nominated for hosting SNL. He may even win.

Comedian Dave Chappelle hosted SNL three times. He received Guest Actor nominations twice. He won both of those. He will also be nominated for his third hosting gig. He may even win again. He could also be joined by Steve Martin and Martin Short who jointly hosted an episode, making them 2-time 2023 Emmy nominees assuming they receive mentions for Only Murders In the Building.

That potentially allows SNL to take three of the six slots in the category — an “up” year indeed.

Last year’s winner Nathan Lane (Only Murders In the Building) is a perennial favorite in the guest acting races with a total of seven nominations for favorites like Modern Family, Frasier, and The Good Wife. The comedic icon will surely be back in contention this year.

Two previous nominees  are likely to return for their respective series finales as well. Sam Richardson’s amusing turn as the erratic Edwin Akufo in Ted Lasso could see the actor repeat last year’s nomination, although his scenes this year don’t carry the same emotional resonance and pairing with then nominee Toheeb Jimoh. He is, however, paired with Hannah Waddingham in a late season highlight for the actress, so his chances aren’t exactly zero. Former winner Luke Kirby returns to the Guest Comedy category after his elevated presence in the previous season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel forced him to campaign in the Supporting Actor race. If the series finale attracts broad Television Academy attention, then his final turn as a drug-addicted Lenny Bruce should reward him with a final nomination.

The strangest competition in this category, though, has to be within the extremely popular first season of The Bear. Over on Gold Derby, the Experts include three separate performances from the critically acclaimed series. The front runner for a nomination, in my opinion, is likely Jon Bernthal for his flashback appearance as Mikey Berzatto, the deceased brother of lead Carmy (Jeremy Allen White). His chances may be particularly strong because he also strongly features in the currently airing (and massively popular) second season episode “Seven Fishes.” Also very likely to factor in if The Bear sees a big splash is Uncle Jimmy, Oliver Platt. Both of those nominations would be within the real of possibility. Where things turn strange is in IMDb’s Keith Simanton’s prediction of Joel McHale getting a nomination for his roughly 15-second cameo as a very angry head chef. He has McHale getting in over two actors who made far greater impacts on the first season.

If it happens, then we riot at dawn.

Predicted Nominees

1. Pedro Pascal, Saturday Night Live
2. Nathan Lane, Only Murders In the Building
3. Dave Chappelle, Saturday Night Live
4. Luke Kirby, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
5. Steve Martin & Martin Short, Saturday Night Live
6. Jon Bernthal, The Bear