2024 Oscar Predictions – The Best Picture Connection to Actor and Actress

For at least the past 25 years, a singular male performance anchored most of the Oscar frontrunners for Best Picture. That is still mostly true today, though with a major caveat. There continues to be an ongoing push to make things more equal in society by making them appear more equal in the Oscar race.

That has to be said at the outset because we’ve recently seen the traditional pattern — an acclaimed male-driven film that is nominated for Best Picture — being upended, while films like Nomadland and CODA proceed to win Best Picture. These were written, directed, and starring women.

Hollywood, like so much of our culture of late, reflects what is an increasingly insular bubble that reflects itself back to itself. That’s why what Hollywood reflects outwardly doesn’t exactly match what is the American majority in 2023.

White — roughly 60% (Hispanic 18%/Black 13%)
heterosexual — 94% (per Gallup, as of February, 7.2% identify as LGBTQIA and most of those identify as bisexual.
Christian — 70%

But Hollywood and the Oscars don’t really reflect that majority, for the most part, or at least they haven’t since 2020. Whether that will change this year or not remains to be seen. But what we know is that the Oscars, like the film industry, at this moment in time reflect a specific ideology that many people call “woke.” That translates as, roughly, an activist-leaning film industry. If Oscar winners do not “move the industry forward,” they may be regarded as less valued. Moving it forward means wins for marginalized groups as opposed to white guys, basically.

The contradiction is that male-driven films tend to do better across the board. I’m not entirely sure why that is. I think it’s that men are the default. Men like men, women like men. Or used to be. Things have changed. That was a “binary” way of looking at things; but as we know, that isn’t necessarily how Hollywood or the industry looks at things. Like so much of our culture, they are leaning into a more inclusive kind of utopian vision for the industry and the country, a “nonbinary” vision, perhaps.

But let’s look at some history to see how things have shaken out lately.

Take the last great year of Best Picture contenders, 2019. Which were the strongest films?

Parasite — (non-white) ensemble cast but a male protagonist directed by a male.
1917 — male lead, directed by a male
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — male leads, directed by male
The Irishman — male cast, directed by a male
Joker — male lead (won Best Actor), directed by a male
Ford v. Ferarri — male leads, directed by a male
Jojo Rabbit — male lead, directed by a male

Then we get to:
Marriage Story — male and female, directed by a male
Little Women — starring females, directed by a female

2020 was the “Great Awokening” where everything dramatically changed almost overnight. Without getting into weeds on what exactly happened, let’s just cut to last year to see how that worked out.

Everything Everywhere All at Once — (nonwhite) female lead, directed by two males
All Quiet on the Western Front — male lead, directed by a male
Avatar: The Way of Water — mixed ensemble, directed by a male
The Banshees of Inisherin — male leads, directed by a male
Elvis — male lead, directed by a male
The Fablemans — male lead, directed by a male
TAR — female lead, directed by a male
Top Gun: Maverick — male lead, directed by a male
Women Talking — female ensemble cast, directed by a female

What did change is what film won Best Picture without a doubt. The last film before Nomadland to win Best Picture and Best Actress was 2004’s Million Dollar Baby.

2022 — Everything Everywhere All at Once (non-white female lead, inclusive cast + LGBTQIA)
2021 — CODA (female lead, female-directed, with 3 deaf characters)
2020 — Nomadland (female lead, non-white female-directed)
2019 — Parasite (non-white cast)
2018 — Green Book (partly non-white cast/LGBTQIA theme)
2017 — The Shape of Water (female lead)
2016 — Moonlight (non-white cast/LGBTQIA theme)
2015 — Spotlight (ensemble but mostly male)
2014 — Birdman (director from Mexico)
2013 — 12 Years a Slave (non-white cast and director)
2012 — Argo
2011 — The Artist
2010 — The King’s Speech
2009 — The Hurt Locker (female director)
2008 — Slumdog Millionaire (non-white cast)
2007 — No Country for Old Men
2006 — The Departed
2005 — Crash
2004 — Million Dollar Baby

Green Book was the only movie that caused a revolution in the industry. Even though it was about the relationship between an ignorant white man and an evolved Black, gay man, the Trump factor (the screenwriter was a supporter) was too big to ignore. It was more about the film that lost, ROMA, which many critics took as a personal affront.

But the question remains (other than the efforts to virtue signal when it comes to what wins): has anything changed when it comes to what kinds of films drive the race? If last year’s lineup is any sign, then no. Audiences, critics, and voters are still drawn to male-driven films for the most part. But when it comes to pulling the trigger on a winner, the ways they speak for change in the industry do still matter.

Last year’s Best Actor lineup did not really match Best Picture, weirdly enough. Only two contenders came from a Best Picture nominee. This was only the second time since 2009 (post-expanded ballot) when the same thing happened. Jeff Bridges won that year for Crazy Heart, like Brendan Fraser winning for The Whale. Weird, right?

By contrast, three of the Best Actress nominees were featured in Best Picture nominees, including the winner, Michelle Yeoh. That means Best Picture and Best Actress have gone together three since 2004. Even if it doesn’t really change the nominees overall, the “Great Awokening” has most definitely changed the winners. That was especially true last year when Everything Everywhere broke records for winning three acting prizes along with Best Picture.

Will that happen again this year? It’s hard to know. Everything Everywhere was the exact right movie about the exact right thing at the exact right time. While the rest of the country was celebrating Top Gun: Maverick, Everything Everywhere most definitely reflected the world “inside” what Hollywood and the Oscars have become.

Let’s look at what might lie ahead for 2023, at this very early moment in the race.

I am taking the contenders from various sources, including our Good as Gold, Erik Anderson’s AwardsWatch, Clayton Davis’ Variety, Jeff Wells’ Hollywood Elsewhere.

Best Actor-driven Best Picture contenders

Oppenheimer (male lead, directed by a male)
Killers of the Flower Moon (male leads, directed by male, ensemble cast of Native Americans)
The Killer (male lead, directed by a male)
Maestro (male lead, directed by male, LGBTQIA+ theme)
Dune: Part Two (male lead, directed by a male)
The Holdovers (male leads, directed by a male)
Saltburn (male leads, directed by a female)
Napoleon (male lead, directed by a male)
Air (male lead, directed by a male)
Freud’s Last Session (male lead, directed by a male)
Ferrari (male lead, directed by a male)

Ensembles

Next Goal Wins (mostly male, directed by a male, LGBTQIA+ theme)
Past Lives (male and female leads, directed by a female)
Zone of Interest (directed by a male)

Best Actress-Driven Best Picture Contenders

Poor Things (female lead, directed by a male)
The Color Purple (non-white female lead+ensemble, non-white male director, LGBTQIA+ aspect)
Barbie (female lead, inclusive cast, directed by a female, LGBTQIA+ aspect)
Lee (female lead, directed by a female)

These are, on first pass, the films that stand out to me as potential contenders. Does that mean anything? Not really. It’s too early to know anything for sure. If I had to lay out a sloppy predictions list right now I’d go with:

Best Picture/Best Director
Oppenheimer/Christopher Nolan
Killers of the Flower Moon/Martin Scorsese
The Killer/David Fincher
The Holdovers/Alexander Payne
Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

Best Picture
Past Lives
Next Goal Wins
The Color Purple
Maestro
Saltburn

Alts
Dune: Part Two
Napoleon
Zone of Interest

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Michael Fassbender, The Killer
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Alts
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Adam Driver, Ferrari

Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Kate Winslet, Lee
Carey Mulligan, Maestro

There are plenty of other films I’ve heard about, and performances upcoming. I’m laying these down here now as a record of an impression in time and nothing more. We’ll keep looking more deeply as the year unfolds.