2023 Emmy Predictions: What Trends To Watch For on Nomination Day

On Wednesday, July 12, the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences will unveil their nominations for the 75th Annual Emmy Awards. The nominations come at a particularly unsettled time in Hollywood when the striking Writers Guild (66 days and counting) and the thinking-really-hard-about-striking Screen Actors Guild threaten to overshadow the proceedings with uncertainty.

If SAG were to go on strike, then one of two things could happen. First, the added pressure could make studios significantly more invested in coming to some kind of resolution over streaming residuals, the usage of AI, and other items on the table. Striking writers are one thing, but if SAG strikes, then there will be no working faces to put in front of cameras. That would be a particularly ill-timed event as the industry feels like it’s just now starting to get on its feet after the COVID pandemic. So, ironically, the power of SAG could put an earlier end to the on-going strike. Or, second, it could crush the entire industry, delaying all new productions for months and likely postponing the 2023 Emmy Awards beyond its September 18 date.

The last delay the Emmys experienced happened back in September 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attack, pushing the ceremony back to November of that year. The 2020 Emmys still took place during the COVID pandemic with nominees sequestered at home, allowing for at least one viral (no pun intended) moment as Ramy Youssef tweeted a video of what happens when you lose a pandemic Emmy to Schitt’s Creek‘s Eugene Levy.

If the strike extends into late summer, say mid-August, then the event will likely be postponed. In a late June New York Times article, talks are underway to plan for any strike-based delay. One discussed option would be to postpone the event until January 2024, allowing a long runway for the strike to resolve. Personally, I find it very hard to believe that the strike would last that long, particularly if SAG gets involved. It’s not something the current entertainment industry is well suited to whether, although Apple, Netflix, and others have started looking for content overseas where pesky guilds don’t apply.

So, assuming season two is ready in time, we may be looking at a Squid Game-heavy 2024 Emmys.

Regardless of what happens with the strike, the 2023 Emmy nominations will still be announced on Wednesday. While we know Succession, Abbott Elementary, Ted Lasso, and Dahmer are going to dominate the nominations, a major change in voting procedures in effect for this season makes the potential nominees a little more challenging to predict. Or it could make prediction far easier.

Gold Derby’s Daniel Montgomery explained it well back in early June:

Under the previous nominating system, voters could check off as many names as they wished. So if you’re a fan of a particular show and they have a dozen supporting actors on the ballot, you could check all dozen names, perhaps contributing to some shows dominating the nominations tally. Now there’s a cap in place: “The number of selections each voting member is allowed to make per category in first-round voting will now be capped at the number of nominations specified for that category. Members will no longer be allowed to vote for an unlimited number of selections in any category.”

So, if a voter is limited in their selections but they really love Succession and The White Lotus, are they going to throw all of their weight behind both shows in the Supporting Actor in a Drama Series category, for example? That could potentially lead to only two shows providing all nominees. Or are they going to perhaps not vote for Alan Ruch (Succession) or Will Sharpe (The White Lotus) because they’d rather spread their votes around to Better Call Saul or House of the Dragon? Given the volume of television out there, my gut tells me the former is the most likely circumstance, and we’re going to see a lot of acting nominations from a handful of series.

Once we do have the nominations, we should be able to see some early frontrunners emerge. Over-or-under performance in down ballot acting categories are, more often than not, forecasts of a series strength in other races. For example, Tom Pelphrey missing his broadly anticipated Supporting Actor in a Drama Series nomination for his acclaimed turn in season three was an early sign that the Television Academy wasn’t fully onboard with the series. That season only netted a single Emmy win (Julia Garner) despite 18 nominations. Conversely, last year many predicted Abbott Elementary to win Comedy Series despite missing a key directing nomination. Season two Ted Lasso saw one less nominee in Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series from season one, but it managed to pick up an unexpected nomination in Supporting Actress with Sarah Niles, an indicator of broader strength for the series. It would eventually win Comedy Series over Abbott Elementary.

This year, Succession will clearly dominate the drama nominations. If by some bizarre, unlikely scenario the series is weak, then we won’t see the broadly expected four nominees in Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. Again, it’s very unlikely, but a show of weakness could manifest in Brian Cox missing on that Lead Actor nomination. Those are just hypothetical examples of what to look out for this year.

In a more realistic scenario, the Comedy Series race likely comes down to Abbott Elementary and Ted Lasso. If Abbott increases its acting nominee pool over season one (picking up Lisa Ann Walter or, less likely, Chris Perfetti or William Stanford Davis) and gets that directing nomination, then it’s winning Comedy Series. Ted Lasso‘s acting nominations are very likely to decrease for season three unless Phil Dunster or James Lance make it into Supporting Actor. If those two nominations happen and Ted Lasso receives the expected nominations for writing and directing, then it’s winning Comedy Series.

Elsewhere in Comedy Series, The Bear will likely have to wait until next year to be a serious contender for its beloved second season. This year, it’s really likely to only win one Emmy for Lead Actor (Jeremy Allen White). It could, however, surprise and win a writing or directing award if it’s stronger than we anticipate. Ebon Moss-Bachrach showing up in Supporting Actor would be a show of strength there. To a lesser extent, an over-performance in Guest Actor nominations for Oliver Platt, Jon Bernthal, or Joel McHale would also show broad appeal.

A shocking nomination for Abby Elliot in Supporting Actress could mean The Bear is positioned to upset in Comedy Series (fan-favorite Liza Colón-Zayas was not submitted this year).

There are likely few surprises in the Drama races as Succession should clean house. As with Game of Thrones before it, it could be slightly vulnerable in the directing race should it receive the anticipated three nominations, which would be a challenging split to overcome. The White Lotus: Sicily will do very well in nominations, but it’s unlikely to win Drama Series over Succession. However, if Succession receives those three directing nominations, then The White Lotus could spoil there assuming the Television Academy loves season two as much as it did for season one. Look for surprise nominations for Haley Lu Richardson, Will Sharpe, Theo James, or most shockingly Sabrina Impacciatore as a display of that overall strength.

I’ve long been on the record as saying I would be surprised if House of the Dragon received any acting nominations or if it’s completely shut out. I have no idea what Emmy support to expect from the Game of Thrones prequel series outside of the craft races. It’s very unlikely to win any major awards this year, but with season two currently filming, any performance nominations this year could point to the series winning Drama Series for future seasons. Matt Smith seems most likely to be nominated, but Paddy Considine and Emma D’Arcy are also in the conversation. If either of those actors shows up, then House of the Dragon will write a similar Emmy story to its record-breaking predecessor. Just not this year…

As we’ve said multiple times, Limited Series feels all over the place. The frontrunner right now is obviously Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. However, Ryan Murphy is newly unpopular with the Writers Guild, so maybe eventual wins aren’t as guaranteed as we originally thought. If Dahmer only manages three performance nominations (Evan Peters, Niecy Nash-Betts, and Richard Jenkins), then it’s still positioned to win Limited Series. If it manages any other performance nominations (Rodney Burford, Michael Learned, Molly Ringwald, or Penelope Ann Miller), then it’s locked to win.

But what could beat it?

• Black Bird should receive nods for Taron Egerton, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ray Liotta. Any more than that, and it’s a serious threat, but don’t mistake those three nominations as broad support for the series. That’s a bare minimum scenario.
• Love and Death will receive a Lead Actress bid for Elizabeth Olsen. Nods for Lily Rabe and Jesse Plemons should be in the cards as well, particularly given the unexpectedly large number of nomination slots for the supporting races. But if you see a nomination for Tom Pelphrey in Supporting Actor, then we may see a series or directing (for beloved director Lesli Linka Glatter) win. Trick is, outside of Olsen, no other nominations are guaranteed. The series came late in the season, and last year’s The Staircase was unable to overcome similar positioning, winning nominations for Toni Collette and Colin Firth on name alone. If Patrick Fugit gets an unexpected bid in Supporting Actor, then Love and Death could win Limited Series.
• Beef is expected to do well and could be a serious contender. Its spring release was well positioned, and critics certainly lined up behind it. An early controversy knocked out a Supporting Actor contender, but the series seems to have rallied from that bump in the road. Nominations for Lead Actor and Lead Actress seem assured, but the real display of strength will come if it wins multiple supporting nominations. Maria Bello, Ashley Park, Young Mazino, and Joseph Lee all showing up in the supporting races would point to Beef winning Limited Series.
• Daisy Jones and the Six appears positioned to make it into the top five for Limited Series. If anyone from the cast receives a nomination outside of Riley Keough, then the series could surprise on Emmy night with a directing win. It’s hard to imagine a scenario right now where it wins Limited Series, but if it over-performs and Dahmer under-performs, then perceptions will definitely change.

And we should all be talking about expected nominations for Five Days at Memorial and Vera Farmiga and Cherry Jones. Alas, hope doesn’t appear to be on the menu for the ludicrously overlooked series.

At any rate, we’ll break down the new frontrunners once the nominations come in next Wednesday.

Until then…