2024 Oscar Predictions — Best Director

Some people might not know (and might not care), but last year’s Oscar for Best Director was unusual in that there were two winners, two co-directors. It was also unusual in that one of the winners was a white American. The last time a white male not from Mexico won Best Director was all the way back in 2017 with Damien Chazelle for La La Land, six years ago.

The last time any film won Best Picture that was directed by a single white male and was about a white male was 2019, when Green Book ignited a culture war in the Oscar industry with a massive freak-out that unfolded. It was such a massive inferno that we would all emerge from that year with the knowledge that everything had changed. The social justice revolution in 2020 only further solidified it. The Oscars had to now be in strict compliance with the new Ordnung.

My own perceptions have changed so dramatically in terms of what I think about now and how I cover the race. You could all me the first “Woke” blogger because I was — nearly two decades ago. I’d been writing about the Oscars from the position of race and gender since around 2001. I even wrote this exactly seven years ago on the eve of the 2016 election, The Remaking of America: Miranda’s Hamilton, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton:

The right-wing panic surrounding Hillary Clinton as a candidate is about the loss of control by that staid white male patriarchy that has become accustomed to running things for almost 300 years. First a black man, and now a woman? Wasn’t Obama supposed to have ended his 2 terms and white man put back into the Oval Office to reinstall the machine parts back to their rightful functions?

That is most definitely where we were and how we were all thinking when Trump won the election. The shock of his win kicked into motion what can only be described as mass hysteria and, eventually, mass delusion. Now, most of the American Left, including Hollywood, exists in its own bubble far from the rest of the country that they would prefer never to speak to and know nothing about.

Walling yourself off that way makes it much easier to tinker with your utopia diorama. Oscar Night ratings don’t matter. The box office doesn’t matter. All that matters is making things fair and equitable. If you want to write about or understand the Oscars or the film industry now, this is the foundation from which we started and where we still remain today, even if we are slowly coming out of it. We don’t know whether we’re out of it or not, and I can promise you, Film Twitter does not have the answer to that question.

Judging from how things shaped up last year, it seems we are still very much inside of what the industry has become since the country divided in 2017. Most studios and filmmakers have yet to open themselves up to their sworn enemies and they seem happy to exist that way. Top Gun: Maverick, in my view, should have won Best Picture because of its place in Hollywood history. But almost nobody agreed with me on that.

I used to think all this was just a phase and that once Trump left office, the hysteria would evaporate. But it only seems to have gotten worse. Much, much worse. In fact, what used to be a preference when it came to award wins is now almost a mandate. Ultimately, one has no choice but to conclude that none of it matters because none of it CAN matter. We have to work with the tools we have, not the tools we wish we had.

This year is starting to look a lot like 2019, at least from where I sit. That was an astonishing year for not just Oscar movies, but all movies. Just look at the Best Picture haul for box office:

Joker — $335 million
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — $142 million
Ford v. Ferrari — $117 million
Little Women — $108 million
1917 — $179 million (cumulative, the following year)

Despite these films from a thriving American studio system, the Best Picture winner, of course, was a South Korean film: Parasite, with $53 million. That just shows you how we have all begun to take box office success for granted.

That doesn’t mean Parasite didn’t deserve it necessarily, it’s just that when you look at how the American film industry is struggling now to stay afloat, you can see how the Oscars might serve to help prop it up. Did Parasite win because it deserved to win or did it win because Green Book beat ROMA the previous year and there was no way Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917 could win because they were by and about white men.

I will say the only film that has stayed with me is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I figure it will stand the test of time in a way most of the others will not.

2019 — Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
2020 — Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2021 — Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2022 — The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Now, as we gaze upon the horizon, we see many white men potentially turning in great films and an industry that still seems loathe to award them for it. What’s an Oscar blogger to do?

We can’t yet know how this will play out, but we do know that identity is always a factor because we’ve all lived it for the past seven or so years. Always. Even when Hollywood and the Oscars are on the brink of collapse. Probably that’s a slight exaggeration, but only slight.

Six names dominate in 2023:

David Fincher, The Killer
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Ridley Scott, Napoleon
Michael Mann, Ferarri

Those are the men I consider top tier of the most revered directors working today.

After that, we get to:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part II
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Sofia Coppola, Priscilla
Great Gerwig, Barbie
Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins
Luca Guadagnino, Challengers
Todd Haynes, May December
Ben Affleck, Air
Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
Bradley Cooper, Maestro

And the newbies: Celine Song, Past Lives; Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Our Oscar queen, Anne Thompson, has now entered the chat. She never lists frontrunners until she’s seen the film, so right now, she has the preliminary list for Best Director as follows:

Frontrunners

Ben Affleck (“Air”)
Wes Anderson (“Asteroid City”)
Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)

Contenders

Ethan Coen (“Drive Away Dolls”)
Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
Sofia Coppola (“Priscilla”)
Emerald Fennell (“Saltburn”)
David Fincher (“The Killer”)
Michel Franco (“Memory”)
Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
Jonathan Glazer (“Zone of Interest”)
Luca Guadagnino (“Challengers”)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (“Marley: One Love”)
Todd Haynes (“May December”)
Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
Michael Mann (“Ferrari”)
Jeff Nichols (“The Bikeriders”)
Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”)
Ridley Scott (“Napoleon”)
Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”)
Taika Waititi (“Next Goal Wins”)

What will decide all of this, of course, is how much the industry voters like the films, and we can’t possibly know how that will shake out since so few have been seen.

The directors I personally trust to be in the running right now, sight unseen for all of them:

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
David Fincher, The Killer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

And then it gets tricky. Does Celine Song’s film have enough praise to earn a spot? She will likely win First Time Director at DGA, but does she get in for the Oscars? What of Sofia Coppola, Greta Gerwig, Emerald Fennell? What of Blitz Bazawule and The Color Purple? How strong of a contender will it be? What of Taika Waititi and Next Goal Wins? It’s too soon to know.

If I take off my identity-thinking cap and not worry about making things even for women or marginalized groups, I would obviously go for directors I think have the best artistic thumbprint, so the next two for me, in an ordinary year, would be:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part II

From there, the names I would be ruminating on would be Bradley Cooper for Maestro, Ridley Scott for Napoleon, and Michael Mann for Ferrari. And yes, I understand this is extremely conventional thinking, especially in the era of “Woke” Hollywood.

At the moment, here are Best Picture and Best Director predictions for this week.

Best Picture:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
3. The Killer (David Fincher)
4. Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi)
5. The Holdovers (Alexander Payne)
6. Past Lives (Celine Song)
7. The Color Purple (Blitz Bazawule)
8. Maestro (Bradley Cooper)
9. Poor Things (Yorgos Lanthimos)
10. Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve

Alts: Saltburn, Barbie, Napoleon, Ferrari

Best Director:

1. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
3. David Fincher (The Killer)
4. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
5. Celine Song (Past Lives)

Alts: Blitz Bazawule (Color Purple), Taika Waititi (Next Goal Wins), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Denis Villeneuve (Dune Part II)

We can’t know anything until we know something. We’ve still got a ways to go yet.