2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Director — How Greta Gerwig Saved the Summer

If Top Gun: Maverick saved last summer, it would be hard to not give credit to Greta Gerwig for saving the summer of 2023. Things were looking bleak before the Pink Parade of Barbie rolled into town. And yes, of course it was without a doubt the convergent Barbenheimer phenom that brought so many people out to the movie theaters, but Barbie might have done it on its own. Oppenheimer was by far the tougher sell, as an original film that wasn’t based on a franchise, a toy, or a brand, but simply on a well-written biography of an American icon.

Gerwig’s film transcends the genre, I believe, and though it is mostly a silly comedy, it has enough artfulness in it that makes it potentially a strong Oscar contender — at least that’s what it looks like from here. This is a year with an abundance of women directors — and yes, we do have to point that out because it’s still an important topic. If no women are nominated, for instance, there will be hell to pay.

Things are changing in Hollywood and changing fast. The strikes have come at a terrible time (although there is never a good time) as movie theaters are just starting to lure audiences back. That is what makes Barbie and Oppenheimer movies to celebrate. Who knows when such a thing will ever happen again.

There is no doubt that Nolan’s epic is the more urgent and important film, though — if recent upsets are any guide — Oppenheimer, like Killers of the Flower Moon, almost seems fated to be derailed by the “scrappy underdog that could.” Choosing a favorite on a ballot is like falling in love: you pick the one that makes your heart skip a beat.

David Samuels at Unherd wrote this about Oppenheimer in an article called “America’s Pop-Culture Armageddon”:

With Oppenheimer, Nolan has transcended both the normative frame of Hollywood cartoon blockbusters and his own puzzle-palace constructions to make a big film on a world-shaping subject, centered around one of the 20th century’s most important and enigmatic characters. The result is a once-in-a-decade film that marks Nolan as perhaps the most dazzlingly brilliant directorial talent that Hollywood has produced since Orson Wells.

That doesn’t mean the film will win Best Picture. It might (of what we’ve seen so far), and it should, but the Oscar race is never about Miss Right — it is always about Miss Right Now. It’s all about love at first sight, about the surge of emotion that feels like the greatest thing that ever happened. A unified feeling of love, absolution, redemption, and joy. Think: a Baptist revival meeting, or a wedding.

You don’t always know which film will capture the attention of the hive mind or why. Sometimes it’s just the thrill of the first film not in the English language winning (Parasite), or an Asian woman finally winning (Nomadland), or the first film with a predominantly deaf cast (CODA), or a movie about a Chinese-American mother finally learning how to accept her gay daughter and helping to save that daughter from nihilism, with a mostly non-white cast, etc. (Everything Everywhere All at Once).

These types of movies can often set the actors on fire (not literally) and all of them earned a standing ovation at the SAG Awards where they all won (except Nomadland) Outstanding Ensemble. It depends on what drives them to euphoria, and where actors are concerned, identity is almost everything. They aren’t exactly a cerebral bunch. This crowd I could see going ass over elbow for Barbie. Just saying.

That means we’re not really looking for the BEST movie, because that is subjective. We’re looking for what drives passion, alas. ‘Tis the bane of the Oscar race now and forever.

But we’re not in the winning phase yet, just the nominations phase. We used to be able to track the Best Picture race by looking at Best Actor, though that’s not really been a reliable metric lately. We can still attach Best Picture to Screenplay, as that stat remains mostly consistent. We are also seeing more recently winners that take Picture, Director, AND Screenplay, rather than Picture with Screenplay or Picture with Director.

Let’s take a quick look:

2009: The Hurt Locker — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2010: The King’s Speech — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2011: The Artist — Picture, Director
2012: Argo — Picture, Screenplay
2013: 12 Years a Slave — Picture, Screenplay
2014: Birdman — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2015: Spotlight — Picture, Screenplay
2016: Moonlight — Picture, Screenplay
2017: The Shape of Water — Picture, Director
2018: Green Book — Picture, Screenplay
2019: Parasite — Picture, Director, Screenplay
2020: Nomadland — Picture, Director
2021: CODA — Picture, Screenplay
2022: EEAAO — Picture, Director, Screenplay

Ordinarily people might say — oh, well Christopher Nolan should win Best Director and Barbie should win Best Picture, something like that. But there is no way they’re going to give Barbie Picture and not award Gerwig Director too. The high would be giving both to her.

Last year, no women were nominated in Best Director at all, but the year before two women were and one won. Ditto the previous year. The problem is usually that there are too many women nominees, and people who want to vote for a woman end up splitting their vote. Before you get upset about that comment, keep in mind that traditionally, most people (men and women) seem to prefer films directed by men. That’s simply what the data tell us. You can make of it what you will.

This year, the competition includes:

Past Lives — Celine Song
Saltburn — Emerald Fennell
Priscilla — Sofia Coppola
Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
Lee — Ellen Kuras
Nightbitch — Marielle Heller
You Hurt My Feelings — Nicole Holofcener

My money would be on Gerwig and Song, but who knows. We have months to go yet.

As for the frontrunners in the Best Director category, we have these strong male contenders.

Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
David Fincher — The Killer
Alexander Payne — The Holdovers
Blitz Bazawule — The Color Purple
Denis Villeneuve — Dune Part Two
Jonathan Glazer — Zone of Interest
Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Ridley Scott — Napoleon
Michael Mann — Ferrari

The White Dude Scare remains alive and well in Hollywood for the foreseeable future, meaning it’s hard to get enough voters to rally around a movie by and about white men. That is because so many are still driven by social justice, activism, and a desire to make change. Thus, they are conditioned to lean into anyone BUT white men, no matter how good the movie.

No one really wants to hear this, I know, but it’s impossible to predict the race unless you understand the basics. That doesn’t mean a film by and about a white male can’t win, but the wind is blowing in the other direction at the moment.

Let’s look at Erik Anderson’s predictions for Best Director:

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – Cannes
3. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24) – Cannes, Telluride, TIFF
4. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
5. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Telluride, TIFF
6. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – Venice
7. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) – Sundance
8. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
9. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (Neon) – Cannes, Telluride, TIFF
10. Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Telluride

And for Best Picture:

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – Cannes
3. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24) – Cannes, Telluride, TIFF
5. Maestro (Netflix) – Venice
6. Barbie (Warner Bros)
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Telluride, TIFF
8. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Cannes, Telluride, TIFF
9. Past Lives (A24) – Sundance, Berlin
10. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Telluride

They match 10/10 but they’re ranked in slightly different order.

Gold Derby has brought in their predictions now, with lots of different takes across the board.

The combined odds for Best Director:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
3. Celine Song, Past Lives
4. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
6. Greta Gerwig, Barbie
7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Their combined odds for Best Picture:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Oppenheimer
3. Past Lives
4. The Color Purple
5. Dune Part 2
6. Barbie
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Holdovers
9. Maestro
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

And finally, my own predictions for this week, for what it’s worth:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
The Killer
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Past Lives
The Color Purple
Next Goal Wins
Napoleon

Also keeping my eye on: Ferrari, Saltburn, Maestro, The Boys in the Boat, Rustin, Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
David Fincher, The Killer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Keeping an eye on: Celine Song, Past Lives; Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins; Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Sofia Coppola, Priscilla; Ridley Scott, Napoleon; Michael Mann, Ferrari

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alts: Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon; Adam Driver, Ferrari

Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening, Nyad
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Alts: Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey into Night; Helen Mirren, Golda

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
John Magaro, Past Lives

Supporting Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Alt. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Original Screenplay
Past Lives
The Holdovers
Saltburn
Rustin
Priscilla

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Editing
The Killer
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Napoleon

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Dune Part Two

And that’s it for now.