2024 Oscar Predictions – An Oscar Season Without Actors?

As I read the news that Jeff Nichols’ new film The Bikeriders was potentially headed to Telluride with Austin Butler and Jodie Comer, I thought — wow! I can’t wait to see them at the … oh. Then I remembered the strikes that have taken actors and writers out of commission for the foreseeable future. Yes, this is as bad as when Annie decides to commit to only one baseball player for the whole season in Bull Durham.

I kid, I kid. It’s actually worse than that. For the first time since 1960s, this is an Oscar season without actors, whose campaigning for the big prize is a relentless dog and pony show that, okay, so maybe some would prefer to do without. But the reality is that most contenders simply can’t win unless they press flesh and kiss babies.

Then there’s grim news from The Ankler:

So when do both sides bow to the if not inevitable then the most plausible path? Could be tomorrow, could be eight months now, but in all likelihood, Labor Day seems like a good marker for all to come to their senses, get off their yachts and start some sort of discussions again, what with mortal threats hanging over our heads and all.

At best they start to talk Labor Day weekend, which means too late for Venice and Telluride, coming at the end of August. So no gorgeous celebrities hitting the red carpet in Venice, no movie stars like Nicole Kidman in jeans and boots casually wandering the streets of Telluride. I know, this is like the worst kind of whining and complaining, but give me a minute to process it.

Of course, Richard Rushfield can’t KNOW talks might start on Labor Day, right? I mean, maybe the strikes could end next week and then we’d get our actors with their hot coffee and their down vests. I once shared a gondola with Jennifer Garner, who ate her lunch while chatting away as we floated up the mountain to the Chuck Jones.

But let’s take the focus off me and my problems for a minute. Think about Brendan Fraser last year, whose tears at the Venice Film Festival as they gave him a standing ovation launched his entire campaign. Well, that won’t be happening now. Nothing like that. No standing ovation. No tears.

The same thing happened again in London — standing ovation, tears.

These types of “performances” during Oscar campaigning sets up the voters and the audience for an emotional response when they win. Sometimes that happens at awards shows, like with Roberto Benigni climbing the seats, but the festival circuit is just one way contenders can showcase themselves to elbow out the competition. In fact, when you don’t campaign (as Robert Redford famously did not for All Is Lost), it can sometimes mean you don’t get in at all. Conversely, you can campaign like Tracy Flick and still not get in — which also sometimes happens. But all things being equal, your best shot is not so much the work (although that matters too) but the campaign.

I think of Marion Cotillard up against Julie Christie and how strong her campaign was. But there are also the counter-examples of, say, Olivia Colman, who did not campaign at all, and beat Glenn Close, who did — not to mention Mark Rylance, who did not campaign at all but beat Sylvester Stallone, who did.

Campaigning isn’t just the talk shows and Saturday Night Live and major publicity events — it’s also the private screenings held in town as a way to both campaign while also not campaigning. I think about all of those events at the Ross House. The idea is that they get people like me in a room with really famous actors where you kind of lose your perspective a little.

Then, what wouldn’t you do for them? For more on this, watch Almost Famous: “Friendship is the booze they feed you. They want you to get drunk and feel like you belong.” And trust me, we motley Oscar bloggers are an easy tribe to seduce into that rarified air of celebrity. We’re UNCOOL.

Back in 1960, Oscar campaigning was not hindered at all by the strike, per the NY Times:

(By the way? That Democratic primary they’re talking about? It was the primary where none other than one JFK emerged victorious. Imagine how much everything was about to change …)

We got through COVID, brothers and sisters, by some miracle. We did it when the Oscars were flatlined. We watched Chloe Zhao accept all of her awards on Zoom — the DGA Awards on Zoom, remember? Was there an Oscars that year? Oh wait, yes. Lest we forget. Oh now, we can’t forget.

It took a long time to bring things back, with a dramatic Will Smith slap in between. We did the COVID tests. We did the masks. We did the weird lounge seating at the Oscars. We did the ratings dive such that we thought the whole industry was about to bottom out. Then, we saw movie theaters open and no one show up. Remember that? Good times.

Then, at long last, Barbenheimer (and Spider-Man and Top Gun: Maverick before it) shows us that no — movies are NOT dead. The moviegoing phenom is alive and well. We watched Margot Robbie glam it up from sea to shining sea in every Barbie outfit imaginable!

We watched the Oppenheimer crew show up too, in the ways that only movie stars can.

Actors! We love them. We hate them. We need them. We need them even more than we need writers. Sorry writers, we need you too, but ACTORS — you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone. Now, imagining an Oscar season without them is giving COVID PTSD. Anything that kicks the awards race back to Film Twitter is not a good thing for the awards race.

But let’s just try to imagine it anyway. Let’s imagine Telluride without actors. Directors can show up at least, right? Here is what our friend Michael Patterson has predicted for the Telluride lineup today:

1) The Holdovers
2) Nyad
3) The Zone of Interest
4) Anatomy of a Fall
5) The Royal Hotel
6) Saltburn
7) Rustin
8) Wildcat
9) Fingernails
10) El Conde

Other possibilities: The Penguin Tunnel, Poor Things, Without Blood, The End, The Bikeriders, The American Buffalo, Fallen Leaves, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Pot-au-Feu, Freud’s Last Session.

Jordan Ruimy has predicted The Bikeriders will make its world premiere at Telluride. If you’re making your world premiere and you have stars like Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, and Jodie Comer in your movie, I imagine you’d like to have those celebs out in force.

Annette Bening might be going for a big play for Nyad. Jodie Foster is also starring in the film — imagine seeing those two wandering around Telluride in their puffer coats?

Last year, Cate Blanchett was out in force in Telluride campaigning for TAR. Cut to: and the Oscar goes to Michelle Yeoh (who was also at Telluride for a special screening of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon). It doesn’t always work out how you think it’s going to, but Michelle Yeoh was also campaigning. Jamie Lee Curtis was out there campaigning FOR Michelle Yeoh. There won’t be any of that.

Does the infamous Andrea Riseborough grassroots campaign for To Leslie take a completely different meaning now? Maybe that was a revolutionary idea as a way to bypass the need to campaign at all. Maybe the SAG rules don’t include your screenings and parties. The Academy cracked down on campaigning last year, but perhaps that was premature, considering how the strike is now going to impact so many of these performances and films.

At the moment, I’m going to proceed as though nothing is going to flatline. Everything will be fine, there are enough lifeboats, that wasn’t that big of iceberg, don’t worry, you can go back to bed … and do predictions thinking this is just an ordinary Oscar year! Let’s do this.

A new Oscar predictor has entered the chat: Brendan Morrow over at The Week. His predictions are solid from this moment in time (which, you know, lots can change). Have a look here.

My only slight quibble with his and other Oscar predictons out there is the near-unanimous blackout of David Fincher’s The Killer, which I find very odd. The years when Fincher’s films missed the list wasn’t in the era of a full ten nominees. It was during the time when voters could only list five films on their ballots for a lineup that varied between five and 10 films. In that era, darker themed films like Gone Girl or Dragon Tattoo from Fincher, but also films like Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler, could not make the list. With 10, though, things change a bit.

I would not rule him out as he remains, in my view, along with Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese, one of the best directors working right now. That he has a movie out and no one is predicting it for anything is kind of … odd.

The only thing that’s changed is how strong both Barbie (about to cross one billion globally) and Oppenheimer have been at the box office. That makes them both, I think, strong contenders.

That said, here are my predictions for this week, FWIW.

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Past Lives
Barbie
The Killer
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Dune: Part Two

Also keeping my eye on: Next Goal Wins, The Boys in the Boat, Zone of Interest, Napoleon, The Bikeriders, Ferrari, Saltburn, Maestro, Rustin, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
David Fincher, The Killer
Celine Song, Past Lives

Keeping an eye on: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins; Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Sofia Coppola, Priscilla; Ridley Scott, Napoleon; Michael Mann, Ferrari

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alts: Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon; Adam Driver, Ferrari

Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening, Nyad
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Alts: Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey into Night; Helen Mirren, Golda

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
John Magaro, Past Lives

Supporting Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Alts: Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Original Screenplay
Past Lives
The Holdovers
Saltburn
Rustin
Air

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things

Editing
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Dune: Part Two

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Dune: Part Two

Sound
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Napoleon
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
The Color Purple

Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Dune: Part Two
Oppenheimer
Wonka

Costume Design
Barbie
Wonka
Oppenheimer
Dune: Part Two
Napoleon

Visual Effects
Oppenheimer
Dune: Part Two
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Napoleon

Original Score
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Dune: Part Two
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

And that’s it for now.