I haven’t had time to write a full review of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, but its place in the Oscar race was made clear with the announcement that the film is going for a major worldwide premiere rather than starting small and expanding. I’ve seen some people suggest they’re worried about the movie, but I think not. To me, this says Apple+ and the Flower Moon team did not come to play. It tells me they intend to be one of the stronger contenders heading into the race. Because they aren’t going up against a smaller indie, they’re going up against… Barbenheimer. They need to announce their presence with authority to do that.
Look at it this way: Apple+, like Netflix, isn’t going for major box-office numbers the way other studios will, but both can easily read the room and can sense, given Barbenheimer’s success (and the muted response to movies like Dial of Destiny and Dead Reckoning) that it’s possible audiences are up for prestige dramas now, especially if they tell original stories and have big stars in them like Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro.
At the end of Killers of the Flower Moon I was filled with so much affection for Martin Scorsese, for his contribution to cinema, for never missing a step even now, for his passion for storytelling, his depth of knowledge across so many different platforms — just give him a second Oscar already. Yet Flower Moon, like Oppenheimer, is no easy sit. It’s a painful subject about a horrific episode in our American past that was never fully accounted for. Native Americans were screwed over twice, first by getting kicked off their land to begin with. Then, when some were exiled to what people believed was mostly useless land in Oklahoma, they struck black gold with oil and became the richest Americans in the country for a time.
What follows is one bummer after another. The only good that has come out of this story is this movie, and the book it’s based on. That makes it harder to write about than it otherwise would be. This is really two movies. One is a typical Scorsese film with his reliable collaborators — DiCaprio, DeNiro, Robbie Robertson, Thelma Schoonmaker. And that movie is fun to watch insofar as Scorsese often is when focused on stories about bad guys, or antiheroes. It’s easy to watch this movie and say: that was a masterpiece. Shot after shot blows your mind. The wild, wild west, the lack of any kind of law and order or societal structure. But the other movie is an American tragedy, one of the worst in our history.
Killers of the Flower Moon will compete directly with Oppenheimer in a few key categories — notably Best Director. But also Best Actor, Cinematography, and especially Score. They will likely have some competition with The Killer. I expect, ultimately, a line will be drawn to connect all three of these films in more ways than that but we’ll have to wait until The Killer opens before going there.
I think Apple+ knows that in a year where Barbie made upwards of $600 mil and Oppenheimer made upwards of $300 mil, any movie planning to compete with both of those will need to bring more to the table than just a great movie by Martin Scorsese. That is, I think, why they made this decision for global theatrical release.
I’m not going to do much whining about the actors strike vis-à-vis the Oscar race, but anyone can imagine the difference between having DiCaprio visit every country like Robbie and Gosling did for Barbie vs. not being able to do that — to say nothing of the Telluride, Venice, or Toronto festivals taking place without any movie stars in attendance. This makes the rollout for Killers of the Flower Moon even more challenging, in terms of box office.
Figuring out which film will catch the wave heading into final voting for Best Picture this far in advance is impossible. The Oscar race is fluid, not static, and reliant upon what makes the actors feel good. Killers of the Flower Moon is a strong candidate for that emotional factor because it is about something very relevant to their existential angst now — you know, those land acknowledgments some people say prior to handing out awards? Or the Academy museum’s condemnation of Hitchcock using Mount Rushmore in North by Northwest? Yeah, that. I could say it shorter by saying it’s Most Woke, meaning, it confirms all of what they’ve been saying and all of what they care about in 2023 — actual white supremacy, actual racism, actual colonization, actual toxic masculinity, etc.
Regardless of whatever else Killers of the Flower Moon is, its politics make it more urgent for the kinds of people that vote on these awards. It isn’t everything, but it is that secret ingredient that means the difference between putting a film at the top of the ballot and putting it at the bottom of the ballot. No one can or will hate this movie. Everyone will want to see it do well because they care so much about the subject.
Also, the Osage tribe is very much still in existence, even if their fortunes were robbed from them. There is going to be a way to celebrate them too, as they celebrate the movie. It can and will be much bigger and more important than just a great movie. Imagine, say, the Native American actors in the film walking out on stage with DiCaprio and DeNiro. Imagine Lily Gladstone winning an award, the kind of speech she’ll make.
Think: the rapture. Think: elevation. Think: redemption. Think: absolution.
That, more than anything else, seems to be driving so much of the Oscar race now. But they also need to compete when it comes to box office so they can eliminate that argument as to why it shouldn’t win.
As for the categories in the film, or its potential nominations, at the moment, I see most pundits putting Lily Gladstone in support. But that would be a mistake. She is a lead character, a lead performer and essentially the center of the film. Her character’s entire family is murdered, and she’s almost murdered (this isn’t a spoiler – it’s a historical fact). Gladstone is the film’s strongest asset when it comes to the Oscars. As in:
She’s lead and they would be idiots to run her in supporting. The Vulture interview makes sure to point out that “This isn’t a white savior story,” and indeed, it isn’t. The Osage themselves had to repeatedly plead with our government to do something about the genocide and the left. Yes, it’s true that it was also the first big case of J. Edgar Hoover’s FBI and that is a really big part of the book, it has much less impact in the movie, though it is probably the best part of the movie.
DiCaprio and DeNiro will also earn nominations for their fine work here, as will the crafts across the board. Ultimately, it’s yet another reminder of what a treasure we have in Martin Scorsese, what a brilliant eye he has and what a daring director he still is.
Every Oscar year tells a story. We’re rolling in this year with three strong contenders so far. I could make strong arguments for all three of them winning both Picture and Director. But the Oscars are never about the movies themselves. They’re always a reflecting pool that tells us the mindset of the film industry at a moment in time, frozen in amber as part of history.
We’ll see how things shake down as we move through this week.
New posters: