2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor and Best Actress Tighten

The Oscar race is not quite finished with the “film festival” phase. London, New York are almost finished. Next month, Greta Gerwig will be the guest artist at the AFI Film Festival, which presents the last gasp before we head into top ten and critics awards territory.

With no actors out and about to campaign for any of these awards, it’s up to the directors show up. Now, we see David Fincher out in London for The Killer, which is a nice thing. Michael Fassbender and Tilda Swinton would obviously bring the press out in force, but you do what you gotta do.

Has David Fincher let Michael Fassbender take him on a drive?#LFF #TheKiller pic.twitter.com/7RgS1O3U9e

— BFI (@BFI) October 5, 2023

Fincher has so clearly made a film he wanted to make, a film he loved making rather than a film that must “compete in the Oscar race,” which is — as every filmmaker knows — a blessing and a curse. It was interesting to watch the reactions at the festival to the film, as though they were in a defensive crouch and waiting to see if it was an “Oscar movie” or not.  But thankfully, with this film, it’s not really necessary to do that. It can be and should be thoroughly enjoyed as one of those movies that holds its place in time and slowly starts to thaw out in the collective consciousness of movie goers.

What I love about Fincher’s movies, and especially this movie, is that they are so intricate and layered. You have to, if you have the chance, see them at least twice — but preferably more than that to catch everything. That’s why when Gone Girl came out (almost ten years ago, if you can believe it), the reactions in Oscar land were muted. It obviously wasn’t an Oscar movie even if, as usual, it deserved award recognition. Well, nearly a decade later, no film nominated for Best Pic that year is even remembered at all while Gone Girl has taken its place in the pantheon and is well-remembered as the brilliant work it is.

The same will be true of The Killer. Fincher’s movies, like Martin Scorsese’s or David Lynch’s or the Coens’ could sometimes be, are not easily understood when they first come out. It takes time for them to be seen for what they are.

New Scorsese masterpiece just dropped pic.twitter.com/DyaKpZOdXB

— Cinema Solace (@SolaceCinema) October 5, 2023

Martin Scorsese spoke to this in a TikTok video with his daughter (they’re using a voice filter so it isn’t that easy to hear). But wait until you get to the part about The King of Comedy. He says the critics hated it, that it was a flop. It was one of my favorite movies that year and remains one of his all-time best. It was just something people hadn’t really seen before, so they had to build a new vocabulary around it. They didn’t know if they were supposed to laugh or be horrified. That is, of course, what makes it great. It is a black comedy, which The Killer also kind of is (as is the graphic novel it’s based upon).

So, do I think The Killer is headed for the Oscar race? Man, I couldn’t get that lucky. Put it this way: I’d be shocked if voters were ever that cool.

The Oscar race feels more or less frozen in time, even if pundits seem to be circling a consensus. You can see that more or less laid out here in these predictions by Ryan Casselman and Luke Hearfield:

They aren’t identical — there are some differences here and there. But for the most part, the same titles and names are kind of like airplane oxygen, cycling and recycling the same air. All that’s left are the movies we all have not seen, like Napoleon, The Boys in the Boat, and The Color Purple.

So here’s the thing about nominations. They’re driven by passion. For a movie or a name to land a spot in the lineup, they either need massive support from their circle of friends or massive support from their studio, when they bloc vote in a nominee. It happens. Or they have to be beloved by hundreds of people so that they land in the number one spot.

It can’t just be that people think a movie will get in because it SHOULD get in. We saw this last year with Till and The Woman King. They have to be beloved enough to land in the number one spot on a significant number of ballots. People have to say “THAT MOVIE was my favorite,” or “I LOVED THAT MOVIE.” That’s how you know it has a shot.

Somehow, the critics — and I mean top tier, snooty, high-minded critics, not the rabble on Film Twitter (though there is crossover) — have wormed their way into the Best Picture race. They can sometimes push a film through if they’re behind a name or a title. There is taste overlap between them and the “New Academy Kids,” most of whom are international voters and younger voters in the short film categories. They tend to be more sophisticated, more hip, more plugged in to the hive mind of Sight & Sound than, say, The Hollywood Reporter.

But the races aren’t fixed by any means. Consensus building is still in the early stages, which means that the minute a name starts winning critics awards or receives a nomination by, say, the Golden Globes, that will flip the whole race on its head.

Best Actress has two strong contenders for lead right now, and both will be vying in different categories for the Golden Globes, just like Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Cate Blanchet for Tár were last year.

Emma Stone in Poor Things will be up against Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Does any other actress have a shot at triumphing over both of them? At the moment, I do not think so. Only Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple, if it’s good enough, could potentially triumph. But that performance could also be like Babylon, where so many of us thought this was going to be Margot Robbie’s Oscar-winning role, only to see the film not land in the Oscar race.

Like Blanchett, Emma Stone has already won an Oscar, as opposed to Gladstone, who like Yeoh has not yet been nominated. Both are going to be in strong Best Picture contenders. But one thing distinguishes them from each other: Stone is a white woman in a comedy, whereas Gladstone would make history as the first Native American actress to win. I’ll leave it to you to figure out how that one will go.

Other hopefuls seem to keep lining up behind those two, largely due to how popular the films are. Annette Bening in Nyad, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, and Natalie Portman in May December are the most mentioned other names for Best Actress.

Best Actor presents a bit of a conundrum. Andrew Scott is absolutely brilliant in All of Us Strangers and seems to have a strong chance to crack the top five. The film also has, I’d say, an outside chance of landing in Best Picture because it’s a film people passionately love. It is a number one movie more than it is anything else.

The actors being bandied about now for the five slots are:

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flowers Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giammati, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper, Maestro

In my latest predictions, I swapped out Cooper for Andrew Scott. I don’t know if that’s a mistake (it probably is). I haven’t yet seen Maestro so I can’t say. There’s also Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction, who seems like a sure bet to land in the top five. But the movie has to be LOVED, not just liked, for that to happen. Paul Giamatti is well overdue for recognition by the Academy, especially since his great great work in Sideways was ignored. Cooper might be getting recognition elsewhere, like Best Director or perhaps Picture, so I’m not 100% he’ll land in Best Actor too.

Here are the ten I had for Best Pic last year:

The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Babylon
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
She Said
TÁR
Elvis
Glass Onion

Alts: Top Gun: Maverick, The Son, The Whale, Emancipation, Empire of Light, The Woman King
I missed: Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet on the Western Front

And for Best Actor:

Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Will Smith, Emancipation
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Diego Calva, Babylon

Alt: Hugh Jackman, The Son
Missing: Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Bill Nighy, Living

So I wasn’t exactly on the money. That will probably be true this year too.

Here are my predictions for this week. Keep in mind the following: Best Actor and Best Picture haven’t matched since 2011. While it’s true that stats don’t matter, it’s worth asking why that might be. One of the reasons is that, usually, the voters like to spread the wealth. They like to give the big awards to different people. So if I have Oppenheimer in the lead AND Cillian Murphy, there’s a pretty good chance one or the other won’t prevail.

There is always the chance that we’re moving into a near-sweep era like we saw last year where one movie is so beloved it defies history. But so far, we’ve really only seen that with Everything Everywhere All at Once. I’m putting Oppenheimer in the top spot across the board based on my confidence of it getting nominated in these categories. Predicting wins is a whole different thing.

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
American Fiction
The Boys in the Boat
Past Lives
Maestro
Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: The Color Purple, The Killer, Zone of Interest, Rustin, Napoleon

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Alt: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actor 
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alt: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress  
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Annette Bening, Nyad
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla; Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Supporting Actor 
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alt: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer; Austin Butler, The Bikeriders

Supporting Actress 
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Juliet Binoche, The Taste of Things (my bias)

Alt: Julianne Moore, May December; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
All of Us Strangers
Alt: The Killer, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Barbie
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish