2024 Oscar Predictions: Feel-Good Movies vs. Somber Reckonings

Oscar pundits tend to place certain movies in certain categories, most notably the “frontrunner” and the “scrappy underdog that could.” The frontrunner is usually the Big Oscar Movie that hits all markers across the board and really should be named Best Picture of the Year. It’s the old school version of what most people still think of as Best Picture. I’ve been doing this so long I remember when movies  like that actually won, like Gladiator. I also remember when it didn’t, like when A Beautiful Mind beat Fellowship of the Ring, or The Hurt Locker beat Avatar.

But now, the pundits still slip into that default, as though we haven’t just lived through a decade of the frontrunner being toppled in the end by the “scrappy underdog that could.” What’s that about? Well, it comes down to the ranked choice ballot and how it works. You’d think it wouldn’t work that way, considering that passion often drives a plurality vote rather than a majority. But it just does.

In the past, a scrappy underdog could beat a frontrunner given a certain set of circumstances. Let’s take one of my favorite Oscar years to look at: 1981. What a year that was for Best Picture and movies overall.

These were the Best Picture Five:

Reds
Chariots of Fire
On Golden Pond
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Atlantic City

Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama: On Golden Pond beat Reds
DGA: Warren Beatty for Reds

Chariots of Fire was not nominated for Best Picture at the Globes, though it did win Best Foreign Film. It had done well at the Cannes Film Festival as well and Hugh Hudson did have a DGA nomination.

However, the Academy has always been ruled by actors. And that year, On Golden Pond and Reds appeared to be splitting the actor vote. Warren Beatty had made good as an actor, and actors like to award other actors. But On Golden Pond was an actors movie if there ever was one — Jane Fonda, Henry Fonda, AND Katharine Hepburn?

Reds was nominated for a whopping 12 Oscars: Picture, Director (winner), Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress(winner), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography (winner), Art Direction, Costume, Sound, Editing = 3 wins

All Golden Pond was nominated for 10 Oscars: Picture, Director, Screenplay (winner), Actor (winner), Actress (winner), Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Sound, Editing, Score = 3 wins

Chariots of Fire was nominated for 7 Oscars: Picture (winner), Director, Original Screenplay (winner), Supporting Actor, Editing, Costumes (winner), Score (winner) = 4 wins

Essentially, these movies were about tied with wins, with Chariots of Fire somehow winning the final prize. I personally think it’s because of its uplifting message (if it has any) and particularly the iconic score from Vangelis. Here is an anecdotal story: my friend and I were in high school back then and just learning to drive. We’d gone to the movies to see Chariots of Fire and loved it. We weren’t into “cinema” back then and were very much caught up in the pop culture zeitgeist. Why was Chariots of Fire in the zeitgeist? One reason:

https://youtu.be/CSav51fVlKU?si=ZWBwOtDmTwuevgZK

I remember nothing about Chariots of Fire except two things: it made us happy and the score. It was everywhere. It made us all feel good even if we didn’t even see the movie. But, as I recall, the film has a happy ending. I ought to revisit it to see what all of the fuss was about.

What I also remember is that it was a huge shock that it won. It was not expected to win, especially given the clout and might of the other two films. But that was the problem: two big films on a ballot of five can cancel each other out and the scrappy underdog can emerge triumphant. It didn’t happen often but it did happen.

Now, with the ranked choice ballot it is the norm, not the exception.

Why? Passion comes into play on a ranked choice ballot too. It’s just measured not by number one votes but by the films overall that people love, not like, not appreciate, but LOVE. They will push them to the top of the ballot and might not feel as motivated to put a frontrunner high up, especially since it’s already been anointed the frontrunner and they might not feel excited to place it there.

Obviously what makes people feel good changes, and whether the Best Picture race is driven by love or by despair is often influenced by what is happening in the country and the world at the time.

The industry, the Oscars, and movie going did not used to be an experience exclusive to the educated “elite,” or those on the Left. The viewpoints expressed now are 100% on the Left. That’s true of the documentaries, the documentary shorts, the animated films, and the features. They offer one one take only about world events.

You can see the trajectory of how America was feeling from Bush to Obama to Trump and to Biden. It is reflected in what films won Best Picture on a preferential ballot:

2009: The Hurt Locker — the first year of the Obama presidency, making history for the first time with the first Black president, and also the first film about the war in Iraq to enter the Oscar race. The Hurt Locker viewed the war, and America, in a grim light — we’re war mongers.

2010: The King’s Speech — our stuttering King Bertie is the hero of the day! It shows the optimism of the Obama era.

2011: The Artist — there is a sense of a fading world and a saying goodbye to what was. It ends happily with a man essentially being rescued by a woman.

2012: Argo — an optimistic view of America as the good guys, but really, this was about celebrating Ben Affleck as the underdog (more so than the movie) although it was an uplifting experience.

2013: 12 Years a Slave — a movie that almost didn’t win. Gravity was nipping at its heels and many pundits predicted it. But I could sense we were entering a different phase, one that wanted to finally acknowledge slavery from the Black point of view. Another “first,” but this time, “first film with a primarily Black cast to win, first film by a Black director to win.”

2014: Birdman — very much an actor’s lament that superhero movies were overtaking actor-driven films. It was opposite Boyhood, which for many felt too insular of an experience, not really “important” in any way (had Boyhood been about a Black kid, it would have probably won).

2015: Spotlight — heroes save the day. Easy call.

2016: Moonlight — beats La La Land in a major shock. It illustrated two things: there was resentment toward La La Land after Trump won (remember, Ryan Gosling’s character was accused of lecturing about jazz, etc.) and it was a kind of a bummer film ultimately. Somber and bittersweet (though it would have won on a plurality ballot).

2017: The Shape of Water — uplifting but also focused very much on a disabled heroine with an inclusive cast and one of the “three amigos” dominating the Best Director race since 2013, Guillermo del Toro. But really, this was also the year that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was its main competition and it was (unfairly) hit with accusations of racism.

2018: Green Book — of course Green Book felt like a movie about racism and homophobia to most people until they were told that it was somehow not a film that should have been made by white filmmakers, not to mention the screenwriter being a Trump supporter. All filmmakers involved were investigated and harassed, leading to a major shift in how the Academy runs itself. It would not quite be as dramatic as 2020 but it was getting there. They invited something like 900 new members that year and threatened to kick out the old timers, all to punish them for liking Green Book.

2019: Parasite — wins as payback for Roma losing the year before. A dark movie about class that is critical of first world consumption. But it’s also a great movie. It’s the first film in International Feature, the first film from South Korea to win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay. The “frontrunner” 1917 was a war film, or what I like to call a “white guy movie.” And there was no way that year it could win, because if it did, every winner in every major category would have been white and that would have been a disaster for the Academy.

2020: Nomadland — like Parasite, it’s dark and ominous but also the first film directed by an Asian woman to win.

2021: CODA — Biden is now in power and things aren’t so dark and despairing. A feel-good movie, a “little movie that could” with three deaf characters beats The Power of the Dog, which is not a feel-good movie in any way, shape, or form.

2022: Everything Everywhere All at Once — aka the “rapture.” It was all things the collective needed: a film that was intersectional across the board with an intersectional meaning, but also had a long, profitable run in theaters and wasn’t grown in a hothouse as an “Oscar movie.” It was the ultimate winner for the modern day Academy. Feel-good.

So now, we’re heading into another election year and who knows how all of this will go. I certainly do not. But let’s look at them:

Killers of the Flower Moon — a reckoning on the near-genocide of the Osage people by terrible/awful white men in Oklahoma. Not feel-good at all but justice being done.

Oppenheimer — a reckoning about the nukes dropped on the Japanese and the genius behind building them. We’ve never been so close to nuclear war as we are right now. Not feel-good, but important.

Barbie — a total confection that is bubbly and funny, intersectional and man-hating. Feel-good times ten (for a certain kind of person).

Poor Things — a sex romp that is brilliantly written and gloriously made. It’s feel-good in as much as the patriarchal men are destroyed and the feminist lives out her days happy. I’d say it’s mostly uplifting but it isn’t directed by a woman, as Barbie is.

The Holdovers — a “holdover” from a time when movies were more universal. Anyone can watch this movie and love it. It isn’t about any kind of social justice or identity politics. It is a story of people and their plight of living through life. It is feel-good.

These are our frontrunners right now for Best Picture. There will be other films included in the race, but I think these are the ones to beat right now. What we don’t know is what kind of mood will win the day. Feel-good? Somber reckoning? A holdover? We can’t know that right now.

This week’s shout-out goes to the Oscar peeps on YouTube:

For Your Consideration 

The Oscar Expert / Brother Bro

The Oscar Guy

As you can see, a consensus is forming (though it’s mostly all inside the same bubble, more or less).

When you look at Best Picture, ask yourselves who those voters are that will put that movie at number one above all others and why. Think about the newer, hipper, younger, and more international voters that have now joined the Academy. What will make them push movies to the top of their ballots and why? What will push their buttons, turn on their “heart light” and why. Is it a movie they just loved? Is it an “important” movie? Is it a movie that atones for our sins? Is it a movie that makes them laugh or cry?

In general, they don’t just choose movies because they are great or accomplished — trust me on that one. That’s why their winners do not stand the test of time. They are a momentary feeling, a fleeting but intense crush. They SHOULD be choosing the most accomplished films, but they rarely do. Sometimes the most accomplished is also the crush, like Titanic.

Barbie and Oppenheimer, or Barbenheimer, still have a strong story heading into the Oscars because of the box office. They could split the vote — picture to one, director to the other. But I doubt that’s possible, the reason being the Greta Gerwig factor. Watching her win will be fun every time. If she wins Best Director, how does Barbie not win Best Picture? If Barbie wins Picture, how does she not win Director?

Moreover, what would motivate people to put a “white guy” movie high on their ballots? Answer those questions and you’ll know what wins Best Picture.

Here are my predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Poor Things
The Holdovers
American Fiction
The Color Purple
Zone of Interest
Maestro
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
Alt: The Boys in the Boat, The Killer, Rustin, Napoleon

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Alt: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alt: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Annette Bening, Nyad
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla; Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alt: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer; Austin Butler, The Bikeriders

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Juliet Binoche, The Taste of Things (my bias)

Alt: Julianne Moore, May December; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
Poor Things
All of Us Strangers
Alt: The Killer, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Asteroid City
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse