2024 Oscar Predictions: There Is No Best Picture “Frontrunner”

As we head into the final phase of Oscar season, before the critics awards, Golden Globes, and guild awards, there are several narratives driving the race. Some Oscar pundits believe they know how the winners already. But really, every category is wide open.

Every category has at least two so-called “frontrunners,” meaning they seem to have the stuff to go all the way. I say “seem” because it’s all a matter of perception from inside a bubble. We make the race and then pretend we’re predicting it. Let’s take a look at the presumed frontrunners in every category.

Regarding Best Picture, the anointed frontrunner early on was Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster, Oppenheimer. For most pundits, it still sits atop every list. Quickly glancing at Gold Derby, here is the current breakdown of Best Pic predictions among experts:

Oppenheimer — 13
Killers of the Flower Moon — 4
Poor Things — 3
American Fiction — 2
Barbie — 1
Origin — 1

Obviously one would assume Oppenheimer was way ahead, right? But we play this weird little game every year: we set ’em up and then we all pretend like a “scrappy underdog” is beating the “mean old frontrunner.” So what are people predicting what that “scrappy underdog” will be? As you can see from the above list, there are a few possibilities. Is there another movie lurking about that might be that movie but the pundits aren’t seeing it?

In a typical year in the Oscar race, prior to 2020 (aka “The Great Awokening”), we might call a movie like Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers as a possible dark horse to win the whole game. But we have to think about the main factors that seem to drive the Best Picture race now.

For Best Picture, voters use a preferential ballot, which means Best Picture is a “ranked choice.” That means the film really needs either nearly unanimous support (Parasite, Everything Everywhere All at Once) or it needs to be placed high on everyone’s ballot. Voters have to have a good reason to push it to the top. Usually there are two factors: pure love for the movie or a desire to see the movie or its director and cast do well.

Oppenheimer would thus need a secondary reason other than that it is an accomplished masterpiece. This isn’t a problem for, say, the BAFTA or the DGA. But for the PGA and for Oscar it is a tricky game, especially if there is another movie driving votes to the top of the ballot.

“I just LOVED that movie” is usually the main thing. But a film like Killers of the Flower Moon — which is fairly dark and not “feel-good” — might get upvoted because of how important it is. Voters feel obligated to push it to the top — if not number one, then number two. There has to be a secondary reason for them to do that. It isn’t always going to be the movies they thought were the best. The way they rank them is what matters, what gets priority and why.

So let’s take the list above and put it through the ranked choice counting. Origin and Barbie would be the first tossed. What movies on those ballots would be number two? Would it be Oppenheimer or would it be something similar, like another film with race as the central theme or a film by a female director? Let’s say one vote goes to American Fiction and one goes to Past Lives. Past Lives isn’t on the list so out that one goes to and we move on to the third choice on that ballot. If, say, Origin and Past Lives are the top two, it’s not likely Barbie or Oppenheimer would be next. It’s more likely Killers of the Flower Moon gets that vote.

We move on to American Fiction, which now has three number one votes. It, along with Poor Things, will next be eliminated. The one ballot that had American Fiction at number two now has its third title counted instead. For the ballots that had American Fiction at number one, we now move to their number two vote. I’m thinking Killers of the Flower Moon benefits from those ballots more than Oppenheimer. Let’s say, for the fun of it, all three go to that movie. So now Killers has seven votes.

Next, we have to get the second choice off the Poor Things ballot. Oppeneheimer likely would get at least one of those. In this imaginary scenario, Oppenheimer would be the clear winner. Why? Because it came in so far ahead at number one, nothing else could catch it. And if the same thing happens at the Oscars, then it can win. But the question remains: is it the movie the acting branch will love enough to name it number one?

Barbenheimer Lives On

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer still feel like they dominate this race, at least to me. Both could be films that bring a whole new generation of viewers to the Oscars for the first time. That is, if the voters go along with it. And who knows how that will end up. But you see things like this and you think, how can Oppenheimer not win?

I’m not quite buying the Poor Things hype, at least not yet. It is a movie beloved by Film Twitter and it’s possible it will set the Academy voters alight. POSSIBLE. But I’m not sure it has the stuff to go all the way. Killers of the Flower Moon feels like it is the only film right now that can challenge Barbenheimer. But it’s early yet. American Fiction has won the audience award at both Toronto and Middleburg, which tells me it has some crackling heat. I will add that to the cluster of films I think are swirling at the top of the ballot, at least right now:

Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things

Those six seem locked for Best Picture. They will each get enough number one votes to land on the ballot. Next, it gets a little tricky. I personally think (and hope) that David Fincher’s The Killer earns enough number one votes to find a spot. I would be embarrassed for the Academy if it does not name this as one of the best films of 2023: it’s a no-brainer selection, pundits notwithstanding. So I’ll go ahead and wishfully think my way through to a spot for The Killer.

Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Killer

Next, I think Past Lives will get an enormous amount of support from film critics and that will push it through. That’s eight.

Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Killer
Past Lives

Next, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest was always going to be a contender. But with recent events, it seems as though it will have even more support heading into the race, being that it’s about something we’re (shockingly) experiencing in our culture now: the banality of evil.

Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Killer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest

Now, that is already one hell of a lineup. We just need one more film to fill in that last spot. And that one is tricky. You have to think number one votes. What film is going to have a large group of hundreds saying yes, that is my favorite film of this year. Passion will drive it. Activism will drive it. It will likely be one of the following:

The Boys in the Boat (now, it has yet more resonance because Nazis factor in)
Maestro
The Color Purple
Anatomy of a Fall
Napoleon
All of Us Strangers
Rustin
Nyad

Whatever that last movie is, the actors will probably have to like it.

Let’s check in with Erik Anderson, who finally updated Best Picture and Director for October:

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
4. Barbie (Warner Bros) (▲)
5. Maestro (Netflix) (▲)
6. American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) (▲)
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) (▲)
8. The Zone of Interest (A24) (▼)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▲)
10.  The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)

Next up: Air (Amazon Studios), All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), The Iron Claw (A24), May December (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), NYAD (Netflix), Past Lives (A24), Priscilla (A24), Rustin (Netflix), Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

And Best Director:

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)
4. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24) (▼)
5. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
6. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
7. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
8. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
9. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) (▲)
10.  Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) (-)

After seeing The Killer on the big screen, I have to go with Fincher as one of the five. I think it is easily one of the best directed films of the year and I’m counting on the directing branch to recognize that (actors don’t pick the directors…).

Here are my predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
American Fiction
The Killer
Zone of Interest
Past Lives
The Boys in the Boat
Alt: The Color Purple, Anatomy of a Fall, Maestro, Rustin, All of Us Strangers, Nyad

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
David Fincher, The Killer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Alt: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alt: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alt: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Alt: Juliet Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Killer
Alt: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Editing
The Killer
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

That’s it for now. Happy Halloween. Happy weekend.