2024 Oscar Predictions – The Color Purple Finally Lands

There is always a lot of pressure for a late-breaking Oscar movie with a lot of hype. Right now, no film has been more hyped than the musical version of The Color Purple. The crowd at last night’s screening at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater stood up as the credits began to roll. True, the cast was there. True, Oprah was there. But still, enthusiasm is enthusiasm, and all a movie needs is a few hundred people to name it number one and it can be a Best Picture contender.

Even if the movie isn’t as good as the 1985 Spielberg version, it doesn’t really have to be to land a spot in the top ten. It is going to make a lot of money (you can bet your life on that one) and that will make it hard to ignore. Not to mention that having an all-female, all-Black cast is going to be a huge plus for this Academy and this industry. Ignoring it would be a bad look.

I had dropped it off my predictions recently just because it felt dishonest to predict something I hadn’t seen. I was going to see this movie last night, but I am on a cross-country drive to Ohio to see my daughter for Thanksgiving and I would not have made it if I didn’t leave yesterday. But the thing is, I don’t really have to see it. It would have to be terrible not to get in, like House of Gucci terrible — and even then it still might push through.

I’m not saying it is ONLY a diversity thing, but I am saying that The Color Purple, like Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, is just one of those movies that has a slot and that is that. It makes people feel good to award it, to vote for it, to nominate it. Emotions drive the Oscar race. They always have, they always will. And right now, the emotion in the film industry (and in the left half of America) is rooted in social justice, equity, etc.

I would also go so far as to say that I am not sure a large portion of the Gen Z audience that the film industry is catering to even knows what a good story is or a good movie is, separate from seeing it through the prism of identity and social hierarchies, which is why it’s an equally tough sell to go the colorblind route and pretend there isn’t a constant obsession with racial dynamics. The moral panic of our time is being an “ist” or a “phobe.” So if you cast a Black woman in a movie up against a white male, for instance, to not discuss the dynamics is to try to put one over on audiences.

Many in Gen Z have been conditioned to see things like a box of crayons where every single type is represented, and, if they aren’t. there will be hell to pay. The world is not right. The world is wrong and incorrect. I actually saw criticism by people online that called the March for Israel in DC “too white,” and the suggestion was there was something wrong with that.

All of this is to say that a well-rounded Best Picture lineup is now why the ten Best Picture nominee lineup exists at all. I made this case years ago when I was pushing for more inclusion and diversity in the Oscar race. There were so many complaints that it was all white men all the time that the only way to solve that problem was to ensure ten nominees, so that voters had the ability (in the form of extra nomination slots) to showcase movies by and about the marginalized groups.

But it was all meant to be an organic evolution, not the strident Soviet-style mandate it has become. Regardless, the Academy will be proud, the actors will be proud, the entire industry will be proud if their Best Picture lineup looks like the Barbies in Barbie World (except for the Kens): we’re all here, we’re all doing well, everything is fine … (do you ever think about death?)

This is the cynic’s view, of course. What a lineup like this ensures is no screeching, no agonizing think-pieces about how terrible everyone is, no protests. I’m sure those will erupt anyway as the race begins to tighten, but for now, it’s looking like the options for the 6-10 slots are wide open, which means The Color Purple is in.

The Color Purple, along with American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, and maybe Past Lives is the kind of diverse Best Picture slate people like me used to dream about years ago when all of the films in the lineup were about white characters and only white characters. So, even though I complain a lot about what has happened to the film industry (art is dead, long live dogma), I think it is worth taking a look at that kind of full circle moment from the last time The Color Purple hit the Oscar race.

Here are a couple of choice paragraphs from a NY Times article written by Aljean Harmetz on March 22, 1986. Keep in mind the Oscars were held in late March back then. But just read:

The most talked-about aspect of this year’s race is the effect that the snubbing of Mr. Spielberg by the director’s branch of the Academy will have on the awards. ”The Color Purple,” which got mixed reviews, was expected to win a lot of nominations – including best director – but few Oscars. However, the chances of ”The Color Purple” for best picture and of Whoopi Goldberg for best actress zoomed when Mr. Spielberg was snubbed. There are more than 1,000 actors in the Academy, and almost every one wants to be in a Spielberg movie. Mr. Spielberg was given the Directors Guild trophy the weekend before Academy ballots were sent out. Will Academy members get on the bandwagon or will they feel the director has been adequately comforted? Allegiance to Director

In the golden era of the studio system, Academy members spent their careers at a single studio and tended to vote for the movies made by that studio. Today, when film editors, actors and costume designers move from Paramount to Columbia at the rip of a contract, allegiances are to directors – a Sydney Pollack production, for example – rather than to studios. One likely factor in the uncertainty this year is that the nominated directors involved have no enemies. Even Mr. Huston, a controversial figure during his feistier days, is, at this point, without foes. By virtue of age, he has become revered.

This is the first year that video cassettes have had an effect – if not on the Oscar race, then certainly on the financial prospects of the Oscar winners. Because the producer of ”Prizzi’s Honor,” ABC Motion Pictures, was going out of business, cassette rights to the movie were sold last summer. Since the movie is already available in video cassette stores, none of the major theater chains will play it, even if it wins as best picture. 20th Century-Fox, the distributor of ”Prizzi’s Honor,” managed to get approximately 100 independent theaters and smaller chains to play the movie after it was nominated. The results, says Tom Sherak, president of distribution at Fox, were, ”at best, fair.” Usually, a best-picture Oscar can mean anywhere from $5 million to $15 million to the movie’s distributor from extra film rentals. A combination of acting and directing awards brings $1 million to $5 million.

(Oh “video cassette stores,” how I miss you.)

It was shocking that Steven Spielberg was, as they said, “snubbed” that year for his epic. I remember at the time Spielberg was mocked as someone who was pandering or suffering from “white guilt,” an accusation that would haunt his early career. He was also attacked from the other side, as gay rights activists came after him for “straight-washing” the movie. He was also attacked by Black activists for something, I can’t remember what exactly. Despite how the movie has stood the test of time, Spielberg was put through the ringer, which is why I think he missed out on a director nomination that year.

The Color Purple hit the Oscars with 11 nominations and infamously went home with zero:

Geraldine Page beat Whoopi Goldberg
Anjelica Huston beat Oprah Winfrey
Sydney Pollack and Out of Africa won for Picture and Director

And, as I’ve written here many times, long before I was swarmed and bullied on Twitter and called a “white supremacist” for some reason by some wild-eyed Gen Z types (and no, I will never forget that), there would not be another film with an all-Black cast nominated until Precious in 2009.

Something about the reaction to The Color Purple freaked people out in the industry, but it’s not something you hear many people write about. Either way, coming back now after having been reimagined as a successful Broadway show, with an inclusive slate in front of and behind the camera, shows just how far Hollywood has come since 1985.

The reaction to The Color Purple at last night’s screening was mostly positive, with some zeroing in on Danielle Brooks:

A thing to notice here would be the dogs who aren’t barking. Whatever negative reactions there may be, no one wanted to tweet them and make themselves the villain of the day, though Greg Ellwood did kind of go there:

But again, I don’t think it matters that much what people think of the movie ultimately. It’s really more about how they feel about voting for the movie. And in this case, I think they will feel highly enthusiastic.

So now, it looks like a scenario emerging that puts Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers directly in competition with Danielle Brooks in Supporting Actress. We have to think about the SAG, standing ovations, the rapture, etc. What is going to make people feel like mortal gods? What makes them feel GOOD when voting for someone and why.

Here are the names Joyce Eng of Gold Derby has right now:

Two actresses from the same film always run the risk of canceling each other out. Ultimately, I think, this could come down to what movie they want to see “win something.” This was the tried and true Dave Karger rule that had him predicting Tilda Swinton to win for Michael Clayton. They wanted to give the movie something. I didn’t buy it at the time and got it wrong, but it was a lesson I never forgot.

But if they want to give The Color Purple “something,” which of the two will they choose?

Since I’m on a road trip, I’ll keep this short. Here are this week’s predictions, folding in The Color Purple:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Maestro
Poor Things
The Color Purple
The Killer
Past Lives
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers, Rustin, Nyad, The Boys in the Boat, The Color Purple

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
David Fincher, The Killer

Alt: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening, Nyad
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alt: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Alt: Tilda Swinton, The Killer,  Juliet Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Killer
Alt: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Editing
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse