2024 Oscar Predictions: The Strike Is Over, The Season Is Back

The good news is that the long, agonizing nightmare of an actors strike heading into Oscar season is over. The bad news is they have about a month and a half to catch up on all of the publicity — something that would seem a lot less frenzied and desperate if they had more time. Events with big names are being announced: virtual press conferences, parties, meet and greets, all to keep a name or a movie at top of mind so that when Oscar voters get their ballots at long last, they know how they should vote.

It isn’t that different from a political election season with lobbyists and influencers, money and power. Oscar season is all of those things because at the end of the day it’s about a consensus vote. What makes it all worth it is the period at the end of a long sentence: validation at long last.

David Fincher’s The Killer has announced its presence with authority, landing on Netflix today. No film this year, other than Barbie and Oppenheimer along with Killers of the Flower Moon, has generated this level of excitement. Yet the pundits seem to still be unsure as to whether it’s what they consider Oscar-y enough. But here’s the thing: whether a movie is Oscar-y enough depends on how many people will vote for that movie as the best of the year. Can a few hundred people say that The Killer is the best film of the year? I think so.

It’s not a tough call naming The Killer as one of the year’s best. It’s just that the game is like a clogged drain. It feels fixed, even now, in November, still several months away from voting. That’s because of how Oscar contenders are mounted. They’re like political candidates. Each comes with its own team of lobbyists, influencers, deep pockets, and studio support. These are the films that usually have the first shot at a nomination and perhaps a win. It’s harder for an outsider to break through, especially one that isn’t considered an Oscar contender.

The specific history of Fincher and the Oscars usually means they reject his darker films like Gone Girl and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo but embrace films that are more “in their wheelhouse,” like Mank, The Social Network, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. They’ve completely overlooked his previous masterpieces like Zodiac, Fight Club, and Se7en, which is of course embarrassing for them in retrospect.

One of the problems with the Oscars is that they only go for one type of movie. Gaming them requires understanding what that specific type of movie is. For a long time it was period films, small character dramas, Holocaust movies. Now, it seems to be movies about identity and “wokeness,” however you want to define that. A movie like The Killer is just great filmmaking across all categories, from writing to directing to acting to score, cinematography to editing and production design. It is what the Academy says it rewards, “high achievement in filmmaking.”

The movies that get chosen this year will probably feel right for this moment. But looking back on them ten years from now will tell us exactly who the industry was at a given point in time. They seem kind of easy to predict, though we’re still waiting on a few late-breakers, like The Color Purple, Napoleon, and The Boys in the Boat.

Revisiting last year’s Best Picture race, here is what I had around November 18, 2022:

I was allergic to Triangle of Sadness and could not believe it would get in (it did). I did have All Quiet on my alts. Otherwise, I had Till and Babylon wrong.

Joyce Eng and Anne Thompson of Gold Derby had:

Joyce Eng 9/10 of the lineup, with Babylon as the exception. She even had the Best Pic winner closer to the top. Anne only predicts films she’s seen, so by that point, these were the films she thought had the best shot. Avatar was a late-breaker, for instance, so that would not have been on Anne’s list.

Neither had All Quiet on the Western Front on their predictions.

Erik Anderson, exactly one year ago, had the following:

(Missing: Elvis, Avatar, Top Gun: Maverick, All Quiet on the Western Front)

4/4 of us had:

The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Banshees of Inisherin
TAR

3/4 of us had:

Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar
Elvis
Babylon

We all missed All Quiet on the Western Front.

So, for the fun of it, let’s check in on our three pundits now.

Anne has not seen The Color Purple and, as usual, is not listing it (neither has Joyce but she is predicting it):

Erik does not yet have a November prediction for Best Picture, so we can use his October list:

And here is what my predictions today look like:

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Killer
Maestro
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest

Now, let’s see which films are on 4/4 of our lists:

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Maestro

The stragglers are:

The Killer
Past Lives
The Color Purple
Anatomy of a Fall
All of Us Strangers

So we’ll see whether or not we managed to nail these.

It’s going to be an intense couple of months as the stars are out in force pushing their films. That means the needle is likely to shift in different directions. Who knows where it might go. This is, as always, a best guess.

Here are my full predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Killer
Maestro
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest

Alt: Anatomy of a Fall, All of Us Strangers, Rustin, Nyad, The Boys in the Boat, The Color Purple

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
David Fincher, The Killer

Alt: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening, Nyad
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alt: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Alt: Juliet Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Killer
Alt: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Editing
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse