Oscars 2024: New York Film Critics Preview, Predictions, Contest!

Tonight are the Gotham Awards. They have the opportunity to platform only two or three winners. Their choice to go “gender neutral” is probably the dumbest thing (like a Christopher Guest self-parody by this point) I’ve seen an awards body do in genuflecting their virtue. That means two winners are whittled down to one in lead and supporting categories. YAWN.

I’m guessing Past Lives will take Feature, because why wouldn’t it? I’m also guessing Ryan Gosling will win in the Supporting category. Lead non-gender actor could go to Geoffrey Wright (though I doubt it, but you never know). All of Us Strangers could get a boost. There will be Film Twittergasms as this thing unfolds.

The far more influential awards will be handed out on the 30th, when the New York Film Critics announce their winners in real time. We know that they have a strange way of choosing their winners, with rounds of voting, influential voices in the room, etc. They, too, should be taken with a grain of salt vis a vis the Oscar race. But it’s always fun to predict how they will go. Generally speaking, predicting them can often lead to a small backlash that all but guarantees they vote the other way (but maybe that’s just paranoia).

Of all the NYFCC winners last year, only Ke Huy Quan went on to win at the Oscars. Best Film went to TAR while director went to S. S. Rajamouli for RRR. The year before, Drive My Car won Best Picture, Jane Campion won for Director, and the creme de la creme, wait for it … Lady Gaga won for Best Actress in House of Gucci.

Their entire awards database is here.

Now, on to our predictions.

Best Film
American Fiction — Ryan Adams
Anatomy of a Fall — Marshall Flores
Killers of the Flower Moon — Clarence Moye
Past Lives — Sasha Stone
The Zone of Interest — Mark Johnson

Best Director
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things — Flores
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer — Adams, Johnson
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon — Moye, Stone

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro — Flores
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers — Moye, Johnson
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — Adams
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers — Stone

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon — Moye
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall — Flores, Johnson
Margot Robbie, Barbie — Stone
Emma Stone, Poor Things — Adams

Supporting Actor
Ryan Gosling, Barbie — Moye
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer — Flores, Johnson
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers — Adams
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things — Stone

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer — Stone
Julianne Moore, May December — Johnson
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — Moye, Flores, Adams

Screenplay
American Fiction — Flores
Barbie — Stone
The Holdovers — Johnson
Saltburn — Adams

Cinematography
The Killer — Stone
Killers of the Flower Moon — Flores
Oppenheimer — Moye, Johnson, Adams

Foreign Language Film
The Taste of Things — Flores, Adams
The Zone of Interest — Moye, Johnson, Stone

First Film
Past Lives — Flores, Adams, Moye, Johnson, Stone

And here’s our first contest of the season! Happy predicting!