2024 Oscar Predictions: Two Realities, Two Industries, Two Americas

The Oscar race, the interest in film awards, has never been smaller than it is right now. It just seems to shrink every year, even with the blockbusters that defy the transition of movies in theaters to movies on streaming platforms. The future seems inevitable. With streaming, it is possible to exist inside an insulated, isolated bubble.

Netflix offers the only shared experience for movie watchers now, as almost everyone has Netflix. They default to the app when they want to “watch something.” Despite how the Academy has shut them out year after year, they are the future. The offer on the table is this: you can have the movies you want by the directors you like and you will never have to worry about the box office ever again.

The only major downside is that the Oscars become, as Laurie Anderson once described, a “perfect little world that doesn’t really need you.” I have found this incredibly shrinking industry to have reached a creative bottleneck. When you isolate yourselves from the day-to-day struggles of real life, you simply can’t tell stories that matter anymore. Yes they still matter, but only to the bubble dwellers. There is a whole big country out there with so many stories to tell. But to tell them requires not just escaping the bubble, but learning to forgive those you’ve become so cut off from they seem almost like a different species of American.

For one shining moment, there was Barbenheimer. It bridged the gap between the two worlds as, somehow, everyone felt invited in. Barbie was criticized for being “anti-men.” But it isn’t until you watch the movie and listen more closely that you realize it’s not sending that message at all. If anything, it’s satirizing it, albeit on a subtle level. But it became the year’s highest-grossing film, with Oppenheimer nipping at its heels. It almost seemed like things were back to normal. But they weren’t. It was a mirage. The actors and writers went on strike, and Hollywood nosedived. Again.

If you only see one America, if you only tell the story of one America, it’s easy to get sucked into the insular world that the Oscars have become. I’ve been driving across this country for the past two weeks. I know if anyone asked me what I did for a living, anyone in any state, and I told them I wrote about the movies, they would ask me what was good. What should they see? That is impossible to answer now. The movies up for the Oscars are so weird, so disturbing to most people that you can’t just go around recommending them.

I know the routine by now. I’ve gone through it so many times over the past 20 years as the Oscars have been shrinking to suit this tiny community online. If you mention the title of most of the films, you will get a blank stare back. The brand of Hollywood and the Oscars is so bad, it takes hardcore convincing to get people to agree to get into their cars, drive to the movie theater, pay the money, and sit there for a couple of hours. Most of them think their reward for this will be a lecture by their “social betters” on how they should think about themselves, their country, etc. That, for most people, is like going to the dentist.

But there is another story to tell about this year in film. And that is the Sound of Freedom beating Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning to become one of the top ten highest-grossing films of the year, per Box Office Mojo:

As bedazzled as I am by Barbie’s miraculous total and Oppenheimer’s shocking take, I am equally awed by the Sound of Freedom because it got no support from anyone inside the bubble, but look at what it did. I dare any critics group to name this film in its top ten. They never will. Because that is what it’s like to be living through this cold civil war that has fractured this country in two.

Why are people so afraid? We’re watching that answer play out right now on Twitter/X as a mass hysteria swarm around Elon Musk ended with major advertisers pulling their ads and potentially ending the platform at long last, which has been their goal since Musk bought the platform. By “they” I mean the fascist-like alignment of power on the Left, which includes government, corporations, culture, and Big Tech.

They concocted a scheme wherein they tried to prove Musk was allowing actual Nazis to post tweets alongside their ads. Buy a Macbook, hate the Jews. It was all 100% hot steaming BS, but it doesn’t really matter because the goal is to get Musk. The way they get him doesn’t matter — they know the media will never question it. Those in the bubble will cheer.

Despite whatever problems you might have with him, Musk has put his entire reputation and fortune on the line to fight for free speech when he bought Twitter. The Hollywood I used to know, the Left I grew up with, would see Musk as the hero. The New Left, however, sides with the corporations, the FBI, and the speech censors, and are cheering on Musk’s demise.

Instead, they’re once again sending a strong message to the other America that they’re perfectly willing to destroy Twitter, per the directive from on high. The response will be yet more alienation from them. Why should they bother turning out for Hollywood if Hollywood has turned on them?

When Musk said, in no uncertain terms, that the deep-pocketed advertisers should go ahead and pull the plug and help crush Twitter, he was also making an important point about how history will judge those with all the money who use that money to pressure companies to adhere to the party line.

Musk’s statement was not “anti-semitic,” certainly not more than the majority of those on the hard Left who are defending Hamas. But telling them all to go fuck themselves just isn’t done. It is, however, exactly what the Old Left would have applauded. Not the good soldiers of the New Left, however. They are compliant thought-robots, all of them. Everyone is afraid. So everyone stays silent. The end result, however, is stagnation — a creative bottleneck with too many rules and too much fear.

The same is true in the Oscar race. Most of those who cover the awards (including this site) are paid by the studios who hop on board as advertisers. For those of us who run our own business and aren’t, say, part of the Penske empire, the money is the most important part of our job. We aren’t rich enough to tell Disney to fuck off. We have to play by the rules or they will pull their ads.

Despite my controversial takes of late, studios are still advertising here, so if you see those ads you know they are not afraid of activists. These studios are not playing the game of punishing writers for thought-crimes and contributing to a hellscape of unreadable, bland content. But there is a studio — I won’t say which — that has stopped advertising on Awards Daily, and I can only assume it’s to punish me for wrong-think. On the other hand, Jeff Wells has been completely shut out of ad money, save for one or two brave studios who care more about free speech than mandating the status quo.

If I had a million dollars, I would advertise on Twitter all day long. I would brag about it. I would stand tall so as not to be part of the history that will eventually condemn this regressive culture of convicting people in the court of public opinion over what they called in Salem in 1692 “Spectral Evidence.” No one really believes Musk is an “anti-semite;” moreover, most of those accusing him now remained completely and utterly silent when obvious, blatant antisemitism presented itself. Twitter has always been a toxic cesspool. I have the tweets of how often and how badly I was bullied on Twitter long before Musk bought the platform. I’ve been on Twitter since 2007 — I know where the bodies are buried.

This kind of punishment is bad for speech, art, science, comedy — and yes, the Oscars. Musk is right: the idea is you better follow the rules or you’ll be wished into the cornfield to be consumed by He Who Walks Behind the Rows. As I’ve said many times, you never want to be on the side of the witch hunters. If history has told us anything, it has told us that.

Orwell warned us about the very thing we’re living in now. Once someone is a named enemy, everyone goes along with it. And anything goes. Anything. There is no bottom. It’s like Goldstein in 1984. SHOUT OUT HIS NAME.

If they crush Twitter because of a mass hysteria event as we’ve seen so often in the past several years, history will not be kind. What we all saw as “cancel culture” has gotten much bigger and infected the highest reaches of power. The old Left, the artists, and the rabble-rousers would not have gone along with any of this. But that Left doesn’t exist anymore.

Writing about the Oscars requires taking a macro view of the two Americas: the one on the inside and the one banished to the outer region. To predict the Oscars, however, one must take the micro view.

Critics Choice, Golden Globes Voting Starting NOW

The Critics Choice just sent out their ballots, which are due on December 8. The Golden Globes’ ballots are due on December 6th. This week is a big one, at least where these two groups are concerned. They both are more influential than they are predictive and thus, they’re worth paying attention to.

On December 6th, the National Board of Review will announce their winners, though they won’t impact the Globes as their ballots have already been turned in. Over the coming weeks, the major groups like SAG, DGA, and BAFTA will send out their ballots. December is the pivotal month for banking the necessary nominations.

Charles Melton Rising

Every time a movie or an actor wins a prize, the pundits flutter around and change their predictions. Right now, one pundit over at Gold Derby put Killers of the Flower Moon to win Best Picture because it just won New York. It might. We don’t know yet. Another pundit has placed Charles Melton from May December to win in the supporting category based on his two recent wins from the Gothams and NYFCC.

The critics have influence now, probably more than they ever have, but it’s still wise to be somewhat skeptical about what orbits around in the insular bubble of Film Twitter. We just don’t know what is going to happen or how things will shift.

The Gothams are meaningless to me, but they did clarify one thing. They chose Charles Melton in May December over all other contenders for Supporting. That appears to have caused a ripple effect because Charles Melton also won the New York Film Critics Award. That’s how it works with critics awards (they are only human). When a winner feels right, they repeat it. That makes me think Melton is likely going to ride the momentum all the way to his first Oscar nomination. And I expect he’ll continue to win the support of the critics.

He’s going up against some heavy hitters. Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer, for starters. But also Ryan Gosling in Barbie, Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things, and Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. Can he get in? Absolutely. All four of those contenders are white males — I doubt there will be any all-white Oscar categories. But Melton is genuinely appealing and has become a beloved contender on Film Twitter. So it’s more than just about his identity, obviously.

That Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer won Picture and Director at the New York Film Critics is interesting, especially considering Oppenheimer’s status as a major blockbuster. They chose TAR last year, which unfortunately was shut out of wins at the Oscars (though it should not have been).

However, Jane Campion won Best Director the previous year, Chloe Zhao the year before. They have a decent track record when it comes to precursors. Because of that, I think Oppenheimer might win at least Best Director for Christopher Nolan.

Andrew Brennan of Sportsbook Review has opened up betting for the Oscars, which is one way to expand the bubble outward. They obviously have Oppenheimer to win the whole thing (and honestly, why shouldn’t it).

But what I love about their odds is that they have David Fincher’s The Killer — easily one of the best films of the year — in their odds-making pool. That is kind of awesome.

Then again, for some inexplicable reason, Lee is in there. Maestro is not. It will be in the coming weeks, without a doubt, but it’s not there yet. For Best Director, they break my heart with no David Fincher:

He’s on there but lower down the list.

The thing about betting on the Oscars, or anything really, is that you always want the long shot win. You’re not going to win any money if you bet on the favorite and the favorite wins. But if you take a chance and it pays off — well, you win big.

Herewith, my predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC)
Barbie
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Maestro
Poor Things
The Color Purple
The Killer
The Zone of Interest
Alt: Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, All of Us Strangers, Rustin, Nyad, The Boys in the Boat, The Color Purple

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
David Fincher, The Killer

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC)
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening, Nyad
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton, May December (NYFCC)
Alt: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (NYFCC)
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Killer
Alt: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
Alt: May December (NYFCC)

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Barbie
Poor Things
The Color Purple
Napoleon
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse