Maybe it’s residual sleepiness from Thanksgiving turkey. Maybe people are being extra cautious. Or maybe we just haven’t had enough evidence yet. Whatever the cause, the first Oscar Squad rankings after Thanksgiving and after the first major critics group (New York Film Critics Circle) seem like a pretty sleepy affair. Our leaders on the last post remain the leaders today, but we are seeing a narrowing of contenders in the Supporting Actor race with four contenders falling out of predictions. That’s accompanied by an expansion of the Supporting Actress race with the inclusion of May December’s Julianne Moore.
The most significant change seems to be in the Best Actress race. As the Oscar Squad starts to take in The Color Purple, Fantasia Barrino creeps up the ranking, cracking the top five just ahead of Barbie’s Margot Robbie. We’re also seeing Sandra Huller start to slowly fall out of favor with some Squad members. What does this mean for the final five? We’ll find out in January.
We’re also seeing American Fiction’s Jeffrey Wright sneak into the top five for Best Actor. He knocks Rustin’s Colman Domingo down into sixth place. Certainly, Domingo’s early buzz seems to have faded. He’ll need recognition from Critics Choice or the Golden Globes (both of whom nominate next week) to regain his early presence in the race.
Otherwise, it’s pretty much business as usual. Over the next week, however, we’ll start seeing reason for massive shifts as more critics groups (National Board of Review, Chicago, LA, Boston) as well as the Golden Globes and Critics Choice announce their nominees and winners. In two weeks, this could be a totally different race, although it’s going to take Oppenheimer missing out on some key nominations, particularly in the guilds, for it to lose pole position in Picture and Director.
Right now, in the categories we’re tracking, the Oscar Squad predicts Christopher Nolan’s historic epic to take home at least 7 Oscars.
Somewhere, Mark Johnson is smiling.
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Animated Feature
Costume Design
Production Design
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They’re a saying and fact it applies with academy awards outcomes in majority of last decade plus , is Def not compliment to thrm and big fat slap in the face to most us ..namely common sense crowd Oscar the guilds largely forgotten about.
IF ONLY NOLANS MASTERPIECE FOR THE AGES in Oppenheimer would won 7 Oscars that LEAST it deserves.
But saying it up against is this ( disturbingly:) I elect to play devils advocate to try to cushion my inevitable ( disappointment in most key awards indicators ) when I say :
” IF IT TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE USUALLY IT MEANS IT IS…”
A Nolan film that never win director and picture or Screenplay n picture ? Like cmon it just a cop out to say that a director/wroter/ producer is films are ‘too brilliant ‘ cinematic achicemebt to win big Oscars gimne a break .
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I think excuses are wearing thin in broader public as underwhelming ratings reflect as more pple not less or same or similar turn their backs on Oscars.. the rationale lame duck insult slsp in face excuse that a the most gifted ‘ put film goers first..snd take critics with him and the industry ‘ typefilmmsker like Nolan and other filmmskers past that certain filmmskers are ‘ too good’ for Oscar how long will Oscar expect puic or those in broader industry to embrace this absolute cop put cock up mentality?
I ultra user sceptical and u better believe it it Guilds and Oscars decisions thst have generated my unprecedented level scepticism