2024 Oscar Predictions — Killers of the Flower Moon Becomes the Best Picture Frontrunner

Predicting the Oscars is not about finding the best — it is about finding the consensus. If you can predict the consensus, you can predict the Oscars. This is especially true now in the era of the preferential ballot, which implements a ranked choice method to count Best Picture. That excludes things like vote splitting (Reds + On Golden Pond = Chariots of Fire). Sometimes a consensus is easy to spot. Other times, it’s buried in places we can’t see. For instance, who would have ever thought that Jason Reitman would not win Adapted Screenplay for Up in the Air? It went to Geofrey Fletcher for Precious instead, in an awards race that had Precious winning Supporting Actress too. The year was 2009: the expanded ballot was just put in place and it was the first year of Barack Obama’s presidency.

Looking back on it now, it’s easy to see how that might have happened, given what we know about what the film industry, and Hollywood writ large, transformed into under the Obama presidency: nothing less than a full blown religion. Having a collective sense of purpose, seeing themselves as good people doing good things has changed the awards race in so many different ways, from inducting thousands of new voters chosen solely to diversify the membership, to changing how the awards are voted on (“gender neutral” acting categories and the BAFTAs bringing in committees to select correct nominees). Thus, figuring out a consensus vote now is harder than it used to be.

One thing that isn’t difficult, however, is predicting the consensus from critics. Part of that has to do with the same voters voting on many of the same awards (the Gothams, New York, National Society, AFI, etc) and part of it is they are all part of the same organism, the same kinds of people who frequent the same kinds of places. There are outsiders, like Richard Brody or Armond White, but for the most part the voters in these groups are kind of what the Academy used to be: an easily analyzed key demographic.

The Academy, however, like the Golden Globes now, is much harder to predict because they have changed up their membership to become more diverse. We have no idea who these people are or what they like or how they vote, so it can be a crap shoot. Last year’s haul for Everything Everywhere All at Once made history because no other film has any film won that many acting awards along with Picture, Director, and Screenplay.

While the number of overall trophies has stayed fairly consistent with Best Picture winners in the era of the expanded ballot (films don’t really sweep anymore), it’s still unusual to have that many acting winners in any Best Picture winner. In fact, until last year, no Best Picture winner in the expanded ballot era had won more than ONE acting award:

The King’s Speech — Actor
The Artist — Actor
12 Years a Slave — Supporting Actress
Moonlight — Supporting Actor
Green Book — Supporting Actor
Nomadland — Actress
CODA — Supporting Actress
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

That tells you things have changed enough that they could break precedent if a film meets the moment easily. The key about new Hollywood in the post-Obama era is understanding what meets the moment and what doesn’t.

The movie that seems to be hitting the sweet spot right this moment is Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which just won the NBR, the NYFCC, and topped Sight and Sound’s list.

Films that have been nominated for Best Picture have landed at the top of the Sight and Sound list, like The Social Network, Boyhood, Roma, and Get Out, but none have gone on to win Best Picture, at least since the preferential ballot has been in place. But times have changed. Tastes have changed. Understanding what has changed is now the key to predicting the whole game.

When you put together the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics, these are the movies that won both and then went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars:

As you can see, no movie in the era of the preferential ballot has managed to top all three. These are the films that won both groups but lost Best Picture:

We don’t know if Killers of the Flower Moon will prevail, but we know it is, right at this moment, the Best Picture frontrunner. Most of the pundits who have recently updated at Gold Derby still have Oppenheimer in the number one spot, but I wonder how many of them will swap over to Killers after the recent award wins.

The consensus is what we need to figure out, and we won’t know what is until we hear from the big guilds in January. Lately, it seems that the actors have a disproportionate influence on the Oscars. That is because the big guilds changed the order of how they roll out. For a long while, the order went like this:

1. The Golden Globes anoint their winner
2. The Producers Guild announces their winner and it either agrees or it contradicts what the Globes say (Avatar for The Hurt Locker, or Argo winning both)
3. The SAG Awards were the same weekend and they picked their ensemble winner
4. Finally, the DGA was the last award to be handed down and often that was the most influential of the big guilds

You can see how this has shaken out by looking at the films that won these awards since 2009:

2009
Globes — Avatar
PGA — The Hurt Locker
SAG — Inglourious Basterds
DGA — The Hurt Locker
Oscars — The Hurt Locker

2010
Globes — The Social Network
PGA — The King’s Speech
SAG — The King’s Speech
DGA — The King’s Speech
Oscar — The King’s Speech

2011
Globes — The Descendents / The Artist
PGA — The Artist
SAG — The Help
DGA — The Artist
Oscar — The Artist

2012
Globes — Argo
PGA —Argo
SAG — Argo
DGA — Argo
Oscar — Argo (Life of Pi — Director)

2013
Globes — 12 Years a Slave
PGA — 12 Years a Slave / Gravity
DGA — Gravity
SAG — American Hustle
Oscar — 12 Years a Slave (Gravity — Director)

2014
Globes — Boyhood
PGA — Birdman
SAG — Birdman
DGA — Birdman
Oscar — Birdman

2015
Globes — The Revenant
PGA — The Big Short
SAG — Spotlight
Oscar — Spotlight (The Revenant — Director)

2016
Globes — La La Land / Moonlight
PGA — La La Land
SAG — Hidden Figures
DGA — La La Land
Oscar — Moonlight (La La Land — Director)

2017
Globes — Three Billboards
PGA — The Shape of Water
SAG — Three Billboards
DGA-The Shape of Water
Oscar — The Shape of Water

2018
Globes — Green Book
PGA — Green Book
SAG — Black Panther
DGA — Roma
Oscar — Green Book (Roma — Director)

2019
Globes — 1917
PGA — 1917
SAG — Parasite
DGA — 1917
Oscars — Parasite

2020
Globes — Nomadland
PGA — Nomadland
SAG — Chicago 7
DGA — Nomadland
Oscar — Nomadland

(Date change: SAG, PGA move to a later date, DGA goes first)

2021
Globes — The Power of the Dog
DGA — The Power of the Dog
SAG — CODA
PGA — CODA
Oscar — CODA

2022
Globes — Banshees of Inisherin / The Fablemans
DGA — Everything Everywhere
PGA — Everything Everywhere
SAG — Everything Everywhere
Oscar — Everything Everywhere

What this tells me is that, in going later, the SAG Awards have more influence on what wins Best Picture than they used to. The question then becomes what film will win the SAG this year? There are quite a few contenders out of the gate. The key thing to know about Killers of the Flower Moon is that it will have what CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once had: it will be making history for indigenous actors. I don’t know how you top that.

What Killers has going for it is that it will be a chance for the industry, actors especially, to honor a group that has been ignored for far too long, was used in ways that Hollywood is now ashamed of throughout our past. This includes the Marlon Brando/Sacheen Littlefeather appearance at the Oscars to protests the treatment of Native Americans. Needless to say, this fits into the oppressor/oppressed mindset that has overtaken so much of the Left and Hollywood especially.

Martin Scorsese has also become such a legend in film, it goes without saying, and he’s only won one Oscar for The Departed in 2006. He deserves to join the ranks of the greatest filmmakers ever, many of whom have already won two, like Steven Spielberg, Clint Eastwood and Ang Lee. In a way, it’s a no-brainer, picking this movie.

But there is also a quiet war going on in Hollywood that pits the streamers (Apple, Netflix) against die-hard theatrical (Barbie, Oppenheimer). So that war will work itself out one way or another. Here’s what we know: Apple has already broken the seal, as it were, when it won for CODA. Things have evolved since then in a variety of ways: the panic over box office has intensified, there was a strike that had to do with streamers, and Hollywood is hanging on by a thread.

All of these are narratives that will play into the background of this year’s Best Picture race. But I think it’s safe to say we do have a consensus frontrunner at the moment in Killers of the Flower Moon. If the film is to win Best Picture, that might mean Cillian Murphy has a better chance to win Best Actor, as those awards generally split. It would seem crazy to give Killers Best Picture and not give Best Director to Scorsese. It makes more sense to see, say, a Barbenheimer split with Christopher Nolan taking Director and Barbie taking Picture, or something along those lines. At the moment, though, there would have to be a major narrative shift for these films to unseat Killers of the Flower Moon.

Monday we will hear from the new Golden Globes, as opposed to the old Golden Globes. I expect that what we’ll see is a dominance of Killers of the Flower Moon, along with Poor Things and Oppenheimer (we will be posting our predictions either tonight or tomorrow).

In the meantime, here are my predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
Oppenheimer
Barbie
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Maestro
Poor Things
The Color Purple
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall

Alt: The Killer, The Zone of Interest, Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, All of Us Strangers, Rustin, Nyad, The Boys in the Boat

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Alt: David Fincher, The Killer; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat; Celine Song, Past Lives.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (NBR)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening, Nyad
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (NBR)
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton, May December (NYFCC)
Alt: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (NYFCC, NBR)
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things (NBR)
The Killer
Alt: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers (NBR)
Barbie
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
Alt: May December (NYFCC)

Editing
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Barbie
Poor Things
The Color Purple
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (NBR)
The Boy and the Heron (NYFCC)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse