2024 Oscar Predictions — The Calm Before the Storm

The Oscar race has now heard from two major groups heading into January, the month we hear from the big guilds right in the thick of Oscar voting.

The Golden Globe Awards — January 7
The Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild nominations — January 10
Oscar nominations voting begins — January 10
The Producers Guild nominations — January 12
Critics Choice Awards — January 14
Oscar nominations voting ends — January 16
The British Film Academy nominations — January 18
Oscar nominations — January 23

Needless to say, the next few weeks will decide the Oscar race, for better or worse. In looking back over the charts, we can suss out a few things. Considering the voting has changed so dramatically at the Globes, the BAFTAs, and the Oscars, stats data that used to be more reliable can now only take you so far. But we look for patterns regardless.

Let’s go through the major categories to see where we are.

Best Picture

Since the ballot expansion in 2009, these are the years that matched this one, where six titles landed in AFI, NBR, Globes and Critics Choice:

In these cases, all six landed in the Best Picture race. So we know we have six titles that are guaranteed a slot, at least going by precedent. That gives us four more to work with. Looking over the charts, those that made it in without hitting at least one of these groups would be movies like All Quiet on the Western Front, Amour, and Drive My Car, which hit big with BAFTA. Likewise, District 9 came from the PGA.

If they missed NBR but got the other three, they had a strong chance of getting in, but with exceptions, like Moonrise Kingdom above. So that gives us: American Fiction. That’s a total of 7. Now, we have three slots to fill that will likely, give or take, come from one of these four groups.

Neither the Golden Globes nor the Critics Choice have ever 100% matched with the Oscars.  But Critics Choice tends to be more reliable, give or take. So we can probably add Anatomy of a Fall. That gives us 8. The Color Purple, May December, Ferrari are your likely straggler choices. Right now will determine which of them gains momentum.

Best Director

Best Director across two groups where 5/6 matched has happened four times in the era of the preferential ballot. It isn’t that much of a surprise to say all five easily land in Best Picture. CODA, however, breaks the rule of whether the movie can win or not, as Sian Heder was never nominated up to the big night. It also doesn’t matter if you win both, as you still might not win Best Picture.

And it doesn’t matter if you are nominated for Best Director by both the Globes and Critics Choice as to whether you get in for Best Director, as we can see by 2022 and 2018. As a general rule, three of the names get in, sometimes four. Having a DGA nomination helps. Before the BAFTA upended its voting process, having a BAFTA nomination also helped. In the old days of BAFTA, being left off their Best Director list was often a harbinger of a potential Best Director snub.

But until we hear from the DGA, we can’t know which of the three from this year will get in. Though I think it’s fair to say that we know for sure we’re looking at:

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Greta Gerwig, Barbie

These will all likely be on the DGA list and potentially the SAG ensemble list. That leaves us with a last slot, the infamous “fifth slot.” Last year that slot was occupied by Ruben Ostlund for the (truly terrible) Triangle of Sadness. The year before that it was Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. The year before that it was Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, which did not get a Best Picture nomination.

In 2018 it was Cold War (Pawel Palikowski). In 2017, it was Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson). In 2015, it was Room (Lenny Abrahamson). Bennett Miller was in for Foxcatcher in 2014, which also did not receive a Best Picture nomination. In 2012 it was Amour (Michael Haneke), and in 2011, The Tree of Life (Terence Malick).

Other than that, Best Director came from either the Globes, the Critics Choice, or the DGA.

This is all a complicated way of saying that “fifth slot” is a crap shoot. I’ll probably go with Alexander Payne for The Holdovers, though I could see it going to Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest or Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall.

Best Actor

Since 2000, when the Globes and the Critics Choice have 100% matched (four times), all matching names went on to be Oscar-nominated, except once. In 2017, Denzel Washington was nominated for the Globes, not the Critics Choice, but earned a SAG and then an Oscar nod, taking the place of James Franco for The Disaster Artist.

So for this year, we have:

One of those six will have to go. Are there any clues offered up as to who might be dropped? There is no determining factor I can see: not a corresponding Best Picture nomination, not a SAG nomination. But the way things are going now, SAG might be a stronger decider than anything else. And it’s possible this year will break precedent.

These names seem locked to me:

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

The two names that I would imagine are competing for that fifth slot are Colman Domingo for Rustin and Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction. I would lean in Wright’s direction because of the popularity of the film and its likely dominance in the major categories. However, the Obamas are behind Rustin so that might tilt things in Domingo’s favor.

Best Actress

It’s extremely rare to have six matching names in Globes and Critics Choice. Since 2000, it’s only happened twice other than this year. There were two outcomes. One was fairly predictable: SAG agreed with five, all five got in for Best Actress. In 2021, however, two of the actresses were cut, one from SAG was cut, and somehow Penelope Cruz landed in Best Actress.

There were five that matched last year, but it was all thrown in a loop with the Andrea Riseborough story. Penelope Cruz made it in, perhaps doing something similar as a grassroots movement to get her in (who knows), but when that happens, it’s harder to predict.

But ultimately, the nominees, with the exception of Riseborough, came from either the Globes or the Critics Choice.

So here we are again, with six names and SAG nominations on deck. We have not yet heard from the SAG, but we have to figure out which of these will go.

Both Annette Bening and Fantasia Barrino feel like imminent threats to me that could knock out one of the six. It will all depend on how strongly voters feel about Past Lives. If that movie lands in SAG ensemble, there is a good chance Greta Lee makes it in. Otherwise, I’m not sure the performance is strong enough to hold a spot.

Supporting Actor

The same pattern, more or less, plays out with Supporting Actor. When five are matching, they are usually slotted in for Oscar too.

Sometimes the fifth makes it in, sometimes not. It’s hard to tell. But with this year:

We probably have our five already. Do any of these names seem weak? Is there a name pushing through? We might find out when SAG and BAFTA announce.

Best Supporting Actress

Supporting Actress category, for whatever reason, has more examples of five names matching than any of the other major categories.

Once again, we see that the combo of the Globes and the Critics Choice is often stronger than the SAG. In general, it looks like four of the names make it in. That means likely four of the names for this year, maybe five, will also get in.

None of this tells us anything we didn’t already know, but, at least for me, I like putting charts in to see where we are. To that end, here are my predictions for this week.

The thing to keep in mind is that there is no precedent for CODA’s win. None at all. That win, and last year’s big win with the actors, tells us we are in uncharted territory, so take all of this with a grain of salt(burn).

Here are some of the rules I personally follow: a film usually wins either Director OR Screenplay, not both (sometimes they win both if an aspirational factor is at play). A film usually wins Best Picture OR Best Actor — not usually both.

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
Poor Things
The Holdovers
American Fiction
Maestro
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
The Color Purple

Alt: The Zone of Interest (LAFCA), All of Us Strangers

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (LAFCA)

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (NBR)
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
Emma Stone, Poor Things (LAFCA)
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall (LAFCA)

Alt: Annette Bening, Nyad; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (NBR)
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton, May December (NYFCC)

Alt: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (NYFCC, NBR, LAFCA)
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things (NBR)
The Zone of Interest

Alt: The Killer; All of Us Strangers (LAFCA), The Color Purple

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Barbie
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Alt: May December (NYFCC)

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Poor Things (LAFCA)
Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Barbie

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
The Color Purple
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie (LAFCA)
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro

International Feature
The Zone of Interest
20 Days in Mariupol
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
Fallen Leaves

Documentary Feature
American Symphony
20 Days in Mariupol
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (NBR)
The Boy and the Heron (NYFCC)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Poor Things
Indiana Jones: The Dial of Destiny

Song
What Was I made For- Barbie
I’m Just Ken- Barbie
Dance the Night – Barbie
Road to Freedom – Rustin
High Life – Flora and Son

Makeup and Hairstyling
Maestro
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things