2024 Oscar Predictions — The Gravitational Pull of Barbenheimer

Despite the potential narratives that might emerge for other movies in 2023, it does seem like there is a pressure point of two movies competing for the top prizes. I don’t know if this is right or not, but the buzz is starting to build. This is especially so for Greta Gerwig and Barbie. Like, this latest interview with Jim Cameron. Usually these Variety things are mostly people on par with each other. But not for this:

He’s not the first director to step in as a mentor for Gerwig. Remember when Steven Spielberg wanted to sit next to her at the Academy luncheon? They get what a big deal she is. She’s always been, but bringing in the year’s highest-grossing film is a whole different thing for her and women in general.

All of this to say that Gerwig could have been paired with any other director this year, e.g., one that is also up for Best Director this year. But she’s been paired with Jim Cameron. This elevates her status in the race. And that makes me wonder about what we’re watching here. Gerwig also became the first American female director to be named the President of the Cannes jury. The buzz is rising.

Meanwhile, speaking of kings, Steven Spielberg interviewed Bradley Cooper, which is also a bit of a status booster:

Are we about to live through a season where Barbie sweeps, as many of us suggested might happen months ago? The Magic Eight Ball says it’s quite possible, even probable.

Watching the Oscar race and attempting to predict what a consensus will do is only possible if you know the overall objective of the consensus and if you can sense the mood. The mood is usually apparent walking into any Hollywood party. When I walked into the Dolby Theater in 2020, it was obvious Parasite would be the night’s big winner. Buzz is just something you FEEL. And sense.

As we know from the past few years, it isn’t a sober, cerebral experience. If it were about that, CODA would never have beaten The Power of the Dog or Belfast. Instead, catching that wave of emotion at just the right time, before people had time to talk about it, was the key to CODA’s win. Credit the publicists for that one. They held it back, kept it mostly out of sight so it wouldn’t be deconstructed within an inch of its life, and allowed it to be the COUNTER to The Power of the Dog.

A frontrunner has to be formidable week after agonizing week. Nomadland was one of those, which had nothing to do with the film itself. It was good enough. What mattered more that year, the year of the “Great Awokening,” was that a woman won. Not just a woman, but a woman of color. We all remember that year, though one of us should probably write a book about it (maybe I’ll be that someone) so that we don’t forget everything that happened because it mattered. It changed Hollywood.

Since then, voters have chased “the rapture” to keep things moving with firsts. You see it all around you now. It is no big surprise. Intersectionality means the Marxist ideal of equality. It means the white men who rule all industries must be sidelined to allow for a presentation of women and marginalized groups in the spotlight. It has never seemed like a legitimate power swap to me, just an artificial one, but an artificial one inside the bubble of Hollywood is good enough. Just make us look good.

I have been writing about this since 2020 (much to the horror of my readers) with the question always hovering in the air: are we still in it? Have we moved past it? My guess is that we’re very much still in it. And what wins this year will have to still satisfy the needs of the community to make the change they want to see with film awards — whether or not it actually does change things.

I go back and forth on Best Picture, both in terms of what will win and what should win. I can’t argue against a Barbie win, not after making the case for Top Gun: Maverick last year. I prefer the days of the Oscar race when the number one movies did win Best Picture. That was good for Hollywood and good for the Oscars. It signaled a healthy industry, rather than what so much of it is now: to quote Laurie Anderson, “A perfect little world that doesn’t really need you.”

And therein lies the problem. The majority of pundits have Oppenheimer still holding first place to win Best Picture. All or most have Christopher Nolan to win Best Director. But for that to happen would mean Hollywood has finally passed through the period that requires they vote for anyone but a white male to be anointed in a given year.

I’m not so sure about that. I feel the tension and the need for a reversed hierarchy is still in Hollywood. Oppenheimer is such a brilliant film and it just gets better as it goes along. It has the gravitas necessary for a Best Picture winner but it is also being set up, I fear, to be taken down by a “scrappy underdog that could” as we round the bases. These people need (actors mostly but most in the industry) to feel HIGH. They need to feel like what they’re doing has some meaning beyond just handing out awards.

So I ask you, what do you think that movie is? What movie will make them leap to their feet and feel the rapture? What will make them feel transformed? What win will GET THEM HIGH?

I would love to say they all sit down and look at their ballots and think, we have to vote for the highest achievement in 2023. But I don’t think they do. They would ask, by what measure? Both Oppenheimer and Barbie are blockbusters. A measure of strong box office is as good a reason as any other for a film to be named best of the year.

Heading into the Golden Globes, both Barbie and Oppenheimer could win. Then it comes down to the Critics Choice. Then, at long last, the guilds will decide, where thousands of people vote, not just hundreds. Will they want to see Christopher Nolan take the stage again and again to be rewarded for his masterful achievement? Or will they want to Greta Gerwig, our Taylor Swift for the season, win? I know the answer to that. It’s a no-brainer.

Are there any other movies that can steal focus from Barbenheimer? As the season wears on, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Hollywood has lost its audience. They will want to reward the two movies that reminded everyone the body was still breathing.

From BoxOfficeMojo.com:

If you compare it to last year, there is a massive drop in revenue.

Yes, part of it was the strike. Maybe a lot of it was the strike. But it’s also the turn toward what some would refer to as “woke identity politics choking the life out of art.” But you can see whatever you want to see.

I guess in the end, Jim Cameron might not be a bad place to start. We learned from that year, 2009, what happened when he went up against his ex, Kathryn Bigelow. Cameron kept saying, “Give Kathy Best Director, and we’ll take Best Picture,” but that was never going to be good enough. To live through that moment when history was made, the voters wanted the whole enchilada.

Films like CODA, Parasite, and Everything Everywhere All at Once all had the support of THE SURGE, which was the actors throwing their full weight behind a movie they loved. These movies were all “firsts” in one way or another, films they were proud to have represent them on, say, their Instagram. Is Oppenheimer that movie? Is Barbie that movie? Is Killers of the Flower Moon that movie?

I guess we’ll see, but I get a funny feeling that there is an opportunity presented that voters won’t pass up. I have no choice, though except to keep Oppenheimer at the top, even knowing it has been placed there not because it’s a masterpiece (it is), not because it deserves to win Best Picture (it does), but because it’s the perfect statue to knock down to make the HIGH even more intense.

Too paranoid? Too cynical? Perhaps. But by now, it’s hard to see it any other way.

Erik has updated his Best Picture and Best Director predictions. He has:

BEST PICTURE

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
3. Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
4. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
6. American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
8. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG
9. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG
10. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – GG

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
4. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
5. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
6. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – GG
7. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA
8. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) – GG
9. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
10. Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)

After briefly flirting with American Fiction as the top prize, Scott Feinberg has:

Picture
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. Poor Things (Searchlight)
5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. Past Lives (A24)
8. The Holdovers (Focus)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

Director
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

I think both of them have interesting arguments but I gotta lean in Scott’s direction on this. It IS Barbenheimer’s to lose.

The difference between them and me is that I’m not quite ready to give up on The Color Purple. So let’s do this.

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
American Fiction
The Holdovers
Maestro
Poor Things
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
The Color Purple

Alt: The Zone of Interest (LAFCA), All of Us Strangers

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (LAFCA)

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Actor
(I go back and forth here between the top three. And any of them could win. But I have a sense that Paul Giamatti will take it, partly because of the kind of role he plays but also because he’s so overdue. Just a hunch.)
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (NBR)
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (NYFCC, NBR)
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: Annette Bening, Nyad; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (NBR)
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton, May December (NYFCC)
Alt: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (NYFCC, NBR)
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things (NBR)
The Zone of Interest
Alt:The Killer; All of Us Strangers (LAFCA), The Color Purple

Original Screenplay
Barbie
The Holdovers (NBR)
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
Alt: May December (NYFCC)

Editing
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer (NYFCC)
Killers of the Flower Moon (NBR)
Poor Things (LAFCA)
Maestro
Barbie

Costumes
Barbie
Poor Things
The Color Purple
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (NBR)
The Boy and the Heron (NYFCC)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Killer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse