2024 Oscar Predictions — Final Nominations Are Upon Us (UPDATED)

We’re heading into an unusual Oscar race, at least if recent history is to be considered. Since 2020, or even before that, the Academy and the industry overall have been attempting to boost those deemed marginalized: women, people of color, etc. And in so doing, they have sidelined films by white men. It’s okay if one of the directing team is white — as we saw with last year’s big winner — but the long history of Best Picture and Best Director being dominated by men seemed like a thing of the past, or at least as long as the mass hysteria ripped through the town.

At any rate, this year it looks like two films are rising to the top, and it’s not Barbenheimer, as I assumed it would be for months now. No, it’s Oppenheimer and The Holdovers, which are two great movies but represent two very different kinds of films. We’re setting ourselves up for a situation that could look like years in the past where a movie strong on tech and a visionary director (Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land, Avatar, Roma) loses to an intimate character drama (12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Moonlight, The Hurt Locker, Green Book).

What makes it slightly unusual is that The Holdovers was written by, directed by, and mostly stars white men. This is unheard post-Great-Awokening (2020), yet here we are, defying recent history. Now, most people (on the Left) would balk at this discussion — poor white men, they would say. They aren’t the ones who need to be winning awards, they would think. And yet, turning film awards, and Hollywood in general, into a kind of social service to right the wrongs of society has all but destroyed its value in American culture except in the ways the Woketopians want. Make change, make history, etc.

Currently, there isn’t another movie that can unseat either of those two. Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner and its win would have to be unprecedented in this era. Movies like that do not win Best Picture. Movies that win Best Picture usually win a small amount of Oscars, the average being three or four. But here, we have a situation where Oppenheimer is going to charge into the race with lots of nominations and will join Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, and maybe Poor Things with 10, 11, 12, or maybe 13 Oscar nominations.

We are headed into uncharted territory with the state of things. On the one hand, Hollywood is collapsing. The box office is dying and the broader public is tuning out an industry that has become too insular, too concerned with its own utopian diorama to produce genuinely great movies, not like they used to. But here we have bonafide hits with Barbie and Oppenheimer, and with The Holdovers we have a good old fashioned movie that is well-written and delivers the kind of necessary catharsis we turn to the cinema for in the first place.

This would be a good year to just have five Best Picture contenders. But we have ten. So let’s see how they might fill it.

These predictions are based on a combination of factors, the above-mentioned sea change in voting is just one of them. I’m also looking for signs of a pendulum shift which may or may not be reflected on Tuesday.

I will probably change a few of these around in the coming days.

Predictions for the 96th Academy Awards Nominations

The Producers Guild always misses at one, especially in the era of the expanded ballot. What makes the difference? DNA — specifically, the actors and BAFTA voters in the Academy. That both Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall made it in to the PGA is compelling. You might pick those two and then drop something else. Last year, the two films that got into Best Picture that weren’t on the PGA list were BAFTA nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness. The same thing happened in 2020 when The Father got in but wasn’t on the PGA. However, this year, like last year, the Oscars have an even 10 nominees, instead of a random number. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn’t. But if we look at 2009 and 2010, two years where they also had an even 10, Winter’s Bone and The Blind Side got in, where Invictus and The Town were left off. How to make that call? I do not know.

Nearly every single pundit at Gold Derby is going with the PGA 10. So if you get that right, you’ll be joined by many other people, including Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch. I feel there is a bit of a last-minute push for Ava DuVernay’s Origin, which could cut into The Color Purple some, but I’m still going with it based on the acting branch. I guess we’ll see.

You have to go with your gut or go with the PGA10 and miss one. Or two. Here are mine:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
American Fiction
Poor Things
Maestro
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest

Alt: The Color Purple, All of Us Strangers

Here are the charts — click them to see a larger image.

Best Director
Here, I will go with the DGA Five, even if I know that it’s likely not to match.

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Alt: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

Alt: Annette Bening, Nyad; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Alt: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things ; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest

Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; America Ferrara, Barbie; Julianne Moore, May December

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Barbie

Alt: The Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
Maestro
May December

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
The Zone of Interest

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer

Production Design
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest

International Feature
The Zone of Interest
20 Days in Mariupol
The Taste of Things
20 Days in Mariupol
The Monk and the Gun

Documentary Feature
American Symphony
20 Days in Mariupol
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Poor Things
Indiana Jones: The Dial of Destiny

Song
What Was I made For — Barbie
I’m Just Ken — Barbie
The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot
Road to Freedom – Rustin
It Never Went Away – American Symphony

Makeup and Hairstyling
Maestro
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Golda

Sound
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon
Ferrari
The Zone of Interest

Visual Effects
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 3
The Creator
Poor Things
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Animated Short (tentative)
Once Upon a Studio
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Humo
Boom
I’m Hip

Documentary Short
Camp Courage
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
The Last Song from Kabul
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó
The ABCs of Book Banning

Live Action Short
The After
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
The Anne Frank Gift Shop
Strange Way of Life
One Note Man