2024 Oscar Predictions — The BAFTA Long Lists and Pre-Globes Quick Take

While a reliable Oscar prediction list should wait until after Sunday’s Golden Globes, I wanted to analyze the BAFTA long list and what, if anything, it could mean.

They’ve been releasing their long lists since 2020 (after taking a break from doing so), the same year they completely upended their voting to bring in special committees to ensure their picks were equitable. Although they’ve eased up a bit on that, the shadow still looms large in the Best Director category, where they mandate “gender parity.”

I, for one, can’t imagine being a woman chosen on that list, especially this year. We have all of these films by strong directors like Greta Gerwig, Emerald Fennell, Celine Song, and Justine Triet, so you don’t need any help. Yet, the assist lingers on. Their policy:

16 films will advance in the Director category. Members of the Directing chapter vote for their top 16 to determine the longlist, of which the top female, male, and directors who identify as non-binary (within the voting results range of the top 10 female/male directors) will be longlisted to a max of 11, with female/male gender parity upheld, and of which the top two are nominated regardless of gender. A longlisting jury selects the final places from the next 8 placed female, male & non-binary directors (placed within this voting results range). A nominating jury selects four Directors from the longlist to make-up a nominee list of six Directors. In the final round all film voting members vote to determine the winning film. 206 eligible films were submitted for consideration.

They’re doing it in the acting categories too:

10 performances will advance in the Leading Actress category. Members of the Acting chapter vote to determine the longlist (of which the top three are nominated). A longlisting jury selects a further three performances to create a longlist of 10. A nominating jury then selects three performances from the longlist to make-up a nominee list of six performances. In the final round all film voting members vote to determine the winning performance. 94 performances were submitted for consideration.

They select, though, based on identity rather than quality, even if they’ll never admit it. Why even have awards at all? Why not just hand out certificates of achievement? Wouldn’t that save everyone a lot of time? Is there any honor in being “selected” as opposed to chosen? I don’t know. If you believe the awards voters to be irretrievably racist and sexist, whose bias obliterates their taste and judgment, then why have awards at all?

Anyway, the same is true for all acting and directing categories. I didn’t build charts for all of the long list and final nominees and winners, but I did for Best Picture and Best Director for the past three years. This is how it’s worked out.

What can we conclude? For starters, at least in 2020, having both picture and director on the long list doesn’t guarantee a spot in the Best Picture race.

In 2021, eight out of the eventual nine nominees had both.

In 2022, six out of the final 10 had both Picture and Director. All of the Best Picture nominees were in one or the other of the Picture and Director categories.

The whole BAFTA longlist looks like this:

And how it’s all shaping up so far for Best Picture:

The Critics Choice and the PGA are what I consider to be the most reliable and usually miss just one or two. That makes me think The Color Purple is very much in it and that Saltburn could still upset.

We do have an extraordinary consensus building. Ten movies landed in both Picture and Director. In a sense, we’re going through the motions here with very little wiggle room. The Globes might shake this up. Here are Steve Pond’s Globe predictions: some of them would shake up the race, like Sandra Huller winning in Best Actress.

But the Globes alone won’t necessarily shift consensus because of what they’ve been through over the past three years. It’s just one of those things. We have to see where things go after the big guilds announce next week.

If you’d like a jump on our guild predictions contests, you can enter the SAG contest here and the DGA contest here. We will be doing a preview and predictions for those next week, in addition to the PGA. It’s all happening!

Just very quickly, here are where my predictions for the Oscar nominations stand as of today:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Maestro
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
American Fiction
The Color Purple — I still think this film has a shot based on the people involved and the passion. It would only take one SAG ensemble nom and PGA nom to put it in play. Maybe it gets there, maybe not. If not, then it’s either The Zone of Interest or All of us Strangers in that slot. 

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alt: Colman Domingo, Rustin; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

Alt: Annette Bening, Nyad; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton, May December

Alt: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
America Ferrara, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Alt: Jodie Foster, Nyad; Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things; Julianne Moore, May December; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
All of Us Strangers
Alt: Barbie, The Zone of Interest, The Killer, The Color Purple

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
May December

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Barbie
Maestro
Alt: The Killer

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
The Zone of Interest

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Ferrari
Maestro

Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro

International Feature
The Zone of Interest
20 Days in Mariupol
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
Fallen Leaves

Documentary Feature
American Symphony
20 Days in Mariupol
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters

Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (NBR)
The Boy and the Heron (NYFCC)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish

Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Poor Things
Indiana Jones: The Dial of Destiny

Song
“What Was I Made For,” Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
“Road to Freedom,” Rustin
“High Life,” Flora and Son
“The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot

Makeup and Hairstyling
Maestro
Poor Things
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer