2024 Oscar Predictions: The Final Oscar Squad Rankings Before Next Week’s Nominations

If the 2024 Academy Awards were decided completely by the Oscar Squad, then Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have a very good night.

With voting now closed, all that’s left is the counting of the ballots. Nominations will be announced next Tuesday, January 23, and the Oscar Squad weighs in with our final(ish) predictions in 20 categories. Sorry, we just haven’t seen enough of the shorts yet to make informed predictions. But of the 20 categories we’re predicting before the nominations, Oppenheimer would take home 9 Oscars (out of 13 nominations) including Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and a bevy of crafts.

That would be unheard of in the realm of the preferential ballot, but that’s where the Squad stands ahead of nominations based on recent guild nominations and critics awards. And it’s not without some precedent. Oppenheimer did over-perform at the recent Golden Globe and Critics Choice ceremonies. But we’ll see how things land once nominations come out.

Elsewhere on the ballot, the Squad mostly centers on the Producers Guild nominees, inclusive of two foreign films: The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall. There are a handful of outlier predictions as well, most notably Sasha’s inclusion of Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) in the Best Actress race. It’s the kind of film and performance that likely appeals to specific groups within the Academy, much like last year’s grass roots nomination for To Leslie’s Andrea Riseborough.

And when you’re looking at predictions for Original Song, please remember that an Academy rule prevents a single film from receiving more than two nominations for Song. Most, but not all, are centering on “What Was I Made For” and “I’m Just Ken” over “Dance the Night.”

At any rate, this where the Oscar Squad thinks things stand following the recent onslaught of awards and guild nominations. Where are we going wrong? Feel free to sound off in the comments.

We’ll next update following the January 23 nominations.

Catch you then.