Screen Actors Guild Preview and Predictions

Tomorrow morning bright and early the SAG/AFTRA nominations will be announced. They are on Netflix this year and they will announce them live on their Instagram and on SAG-AFTRA’s Instagram live.

https://youtu.be/Zk2TDBDb9HQ?si=tAh6xJ_HhNKLhxR9

I have no doubt it’s all going to be a hot mess. But hey. I like that their teaser is that famous see-through dress for Jennifer Aniston. Look, if it brings eyeballs people…

What to make of the SAG-AFTRA awards of late? Namely that they’re not just SAG anymore; the TV and other media people are in the house, flinging their pedestrian choices hither and thither. Oh I kid, I kid.

What if anything does the SAG mean to us now? Well, it’s become kind of a big deal because the standing ovation movie is usually the movie that wins now, ever since Parasite. Will that happen this year? Will the actors snatch our hopes and dreams from us once again to chase a momentary high that can’t possibly stand the test of time (just kidding, Parasite will)?

Yes, that’s it. That’s our “deus ex machina” in reverse. Just when you thought the right movie was about to win the Oscar, along comes the actors chasing their rapture. And here we go again. What movie will capture their minds and hearts this year? We don’t watch the SAG awards. We ENDURE THEM. We SURVIVE them.

Okay, so it’s not that bad. It IS THAT BAD. This is me scribbling down on a piece of paper HELP ME and taping it to the bathroom mirror when the car stops to get gas. This is the note in a bottle found on the shore that says HELP ME SAVE THEM FROM THEMSELVES!

No, come on. How can it be that bad? It’s that bad, people. It’s that bad.

So what horrors await when at long last they announce their nominees tomorrow? What awful stink bomb will be tossed into the otherwise pristine utopia, courtesy of the ACTORS? I’m hoping not any but you NEVER KNOW. They “randomly” select 2,000 some-odd people for the nomination committee. Could be the guy who had one line in a Lifetime movie, “here’s your pizza.” Or it could be Robert De Niro. We just don’t know.

I am told it is just the film branch doing the nominating, and that those AFTRA people (THOSE AFTRA PEOPLE) aren’t making the decisions. You tell me:

The nominees for the Screen Actors Guild Awards® for outstanding performances in television and motion pictures were selected by two separate film and television nominating panels. each composed of 2,200 SAG-AFTRA members in good standing from across the United States. Nominating committee members are randomly selected annually in the spring and must opt-in to serve. SAG-AFTRA members may not be drawn for the samecommittee again until eight years have passed.

I think the AFTRA PEOPLE are involved here, so all bets are off. We can only they’ve been reading Awards Daily (I am really only kidding around — sort of)

Best Actor

Here are what we have so far — the Globes and Critics Choice for Best Actor:

And the years prior:

Looking back over their history, a 4/5 match-up with the Oscars is fairly solid. As you can see, though, we have six matching. One will have to go. Which one do you think will be dropped? Tough call, right?

Our Predictions:

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — Sasha Stone, Clarence Moye, Mark Johnson, Marshall Flores
Bradley Cooper, Maestro — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon — Moye, Stone, Flores
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers — Johnson, Adams
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn — Adams

Best Actress

Here are the two together:

We have six matching, one will have to go.

The last few years looks like this:

Predictions:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Emma Stone, Poor Things — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Carey Mulligan, Maestro — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Margot Robbie, Barbie — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Annette Bening, Nyad — Moye, Johnson, Flores
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple — Stone
Natalie Portman, May December — Adams

Best Supporting Actor

This is what it looks like right now:

And the past few years:

This category doesn’t line up as neatly as the lead categories. So it’s hard to know how these will go down. It is really a crap shoot.

Predictions:

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Ryan Gosling, Barbie — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Charles Melton, May December — Johnson
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers — Moye
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction — Stone, Flores
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers — Adams

Best Supporting Actress

What it looks like now:

And the past few years:

Recently, there hasn’t been a huge overlap between Globes/Critics Choice and SAG. Three or four seem to cross-over. I’ll guess we’ll see how close they will be.

Predictions:

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
America Ferrera, Barbie — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Julianne Moore, May December — Stone, Moye, Johnson
Jodie Foster, Nyad — Moye, Johnson, Flores
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple — Stone, Moye, Flores
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer – Stone, Johnson, Flores
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn — Adams

Ensemble

How it looks now:

And how it’s lined up over the past few years, keeping in mind that these are different randomly chosen members:

You really just never know how things end up. Minari, for instance, was very popular but not exactly a BIG movie. Can Past Lives become a movie that surprises everyone by landing in the DGA and the SAG ensemble? Maybe. And no, not because they’re both Asian movies. I’m just saying.

Our predictions, for better or worse.

Oppenheimer — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Barbie — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Killers of the Flower Moon — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
Poor Things — Stone, Moye, Johnson, Flores
American Fiction — Stone, Johnson, Flores
The Holdovers – Moye
Saltburn — Adams

I personally had trouble deciding between American Fiction, The Holdovers, and The Color Purple. I went with American Fiction on a hunch but plenty of people think Air could get in too.

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