Best Film
- Oppenheimer
Outstanding British Film
- The Zone of Interest
Leading Actress
- Emma Stone – Poor Things
Leading Actor
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Supporting Actor
- Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
Director
- Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
- Savannah Leaf, Earth Mama
Original Screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay
- American Fiction
Cinematography
- Oppenheimer
Editing
- Oppenheimer
Original Score
- Oppenheimer
Production Design
- Poor Things
Costume Design
- Poor Things
Sound
- The Zone of Interest
Special Visual Effects
- Poor Things
Casting
- The Holdovers
Make-Up and Hair
- Poor Things
Film Not in the English Language
- The Zone of Interest
Documentary
- 20 Days In Mariupol
Animated Film
- The Boy and the Heron
EE Bafta Rising Star Award (voted for by the public)
- Mia McKenna-Bruce
British Short Film
- Jellyfish and Lobster
British Short Animation
- Crab Day
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that does NOT justify history repeating ad nauseum as it has regarding lead on from bafta vs oscar outcomes for wins i thin you know that i quite sure at very least you regard oppie one best films in last decade to you no?
Hi Claudiu,
I have trouble logging into Disqus via Awards Daily, but let’s just say I’m thrilled about Oppenheimer winning and I hope it wins Picture, Director, Lead Actor for Murphy, and all of its remaining favored categories!
But so many people immediately think a win by a person of color is identity politics. Why is that?
I know this has been explained, but Cillian is Irish and we Irish are so happy he won! He gives lovely speeches. I love Emma Stone, but I hated her film, but she is a wonderful actress! I hope to see her on Jeopardy, she applys the normal way, love that about her! I
Ryan, Holdovers only won 2 Baftas, not 3 (subtitle to the post is wrong)
Barbie feels right for that group, indeed – the most popular and widely-seen movie with a huge cast of known names.
Killers winning there would be the biggest plot twist of the season yet.
I think that if Gladstone wins the SAG it’s still a toss-up, just slightly leaning Gladstone. If Stone wins, then of course she’s taking the Oscar too, hence why I feel that her probability is higher. But I do think Gladstone is favoured for the SAG.
If not for the BAFTA snub, I would agree. (Or if Hüller had won here.) As it is, I’m just not sure, even if she wins SAG, that she wins the Oscar. I’ll probably go with Stone, in the end. Makes sense, with the stronger movie and no snubs. But I could easily see it being Gladstone, of course.
If Oppenheimer had a Best Actress candidate, I’d be predicting it to win SAG cast. But as it is, I’m feeling American Fiction or (believe it or not) Killers of the Flower Moon.
It’s going to be an interesting race between Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse and Boy and His Heron leading up to the Oscar’s.
PGA can’t come soon enough to finally give us some decisive evidence 🙂
Haven’t quite decided yet, but I feel like it’s Barbie for SAG Ensemble, with American Fiction as the spoiler.
This is based on feelings more than anything else, I admit. But I imagine the hundreds of theousands of SAG-AFTRA members voting, a body that almost always goes with “woke”, progressive, often POC-led films, and very very populist, and I can’t help but think that they will just go with Barbie. Especially as these are the people that should, in theory, most receptive to the Barbie snub backlash thingy. They did award Idris Elba twice in one year after he was left out of the Oscar slate and we had an #oscarssowhite situation. They like to show off how progressive they are, and Barbie, while mostly white-led, definitely has those progressive credentials.
I still think Oppenheimer‘s gonna win, though.
Oppenheimer, Maestro, Killers of the Flower Moon…
I hope her name adds up to that list man (she’s my favorite this year by far) but the list of people who achieved that isn’t that big and save for Hilary Swank I can’t remember an actress as young scoring two Best Actress Oscar wins so close to them. Emma totally deserves it so I’m so ready for it to happen for her though. She’s a gem as an actor and on a sidenote looks like an absolute lovely human being as well. I’m rooting for her but until she wins SAG I have serious doubts about a potential second Best Actress won for her. Here’s hoping it happens.
And especially looking at the “big upset” years,
Parasite won 2 BAFTAs (Foreign Language and Screenplay)
Green Book won 1 BAFTA (S. Acting)
Moonlight won 0 BAFTAs
Spotlight won 1 BAFTA (Screenplay)
And two others that beat a “big contender” but I wouldn’t consider them upsets:
CODA won 2 BAFTAs (S. Acting and Screenplay)
12 Years a Slave won 2 BAFTAs (Film and Lead Actor)
The thing is, the norm is now that the BP win goes to the kinds of movies that haven’t been winning. So, maybe, in a way, a classic epic winning, which hasn’t happened in ages (and has never happened on the preferential ballot, in the modern era,) is that, this year. 🙂
What do you have at SAG, in ensemble? Officially, I’m going with Barbie. It has the generally required screenplay win (CC) and it has the CC ensemble nomination, which, in the absence of a PGA win, has been required 100% of the time for the SAG Ensemble win. (American Fiction doesn’t have that nomination.)
If I was allowed to predict Oppenheimer for the Oscar for Best Picture and, therefore, the PGA (for which it’s the numbers favorite, by far, of course,) I would go with that 🙂 – no screenplay wins, but that’s beatable and PGA + DGA + 1 SAG acting win (seems locked) + 4 or more total SAG nominations has always lead to an ensemble win. (Also, since the AFTRA merger, 3/3 PGA+DGA winners that were nominated for ensemble won: Argo, Birdman, EEAAO.)
And Oscar’s BP in those previous years won how many BAFTAS?
2023 – 1
2020 – 2
2019 – 0
Like Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Past Lives and Maestro (0); The Holdovers (2); and Anatomy of a Fall and American Fiction (1).
Yep Barbie performed poorly with non-Americans (GG, BAFTA) but well with Americans (CC), We’ll see what Guilds say.
If Stone was a foreign actress then I would have doubts about her winning a second Lead Oscar, since no foreign actress has won two Lead Oscars since Glenda Jackson in 1973.. but since she is American then I can see it happening like all the American actresses that won more than 1 Lead Oscar since the 1970s: Fonda, Field, Foster, Swank, Streep, McDormand.
barbie situation so far is like this – non-Americans blanked it (Globes, BAFTA), Americans showered it with wins (CC). Lets see what Guilds will do.
I did surprisingly well in the techs, which isn’t my forte usually haha.
I got I also went with Giamatti and Poor Things in Actor and Adapted Screenplay, plus I got Foreign Language Film, British Film, British Debut and VFX wrong.
I’m proudest of calling The Zone of Interest in Sound, The Boy and the Heron in Animated, and The Holdovers in Casting!
Yes. PGA win, WGA win, 2 SAG acting wins. Probably needs all of those things, though, so… it’s quite narrow… If Oppenheimer has a total meltdown at SAG and even Downey loses, then WGA + 2 SAG acting wins might be enough.
Oh, it’s good! 🙂 I got 12. 6/8 ATL, at least. (Had Poor Things in adapted and Giamatti in actor, too, when I did these, a while ago. Probably would have picked Murphy, had I bothered to make changes at any point. American Fiction I guess I just didn’t go with to not feel like I’m going too “American”, but I never would have picked Oppenheimer, which is why I went with Poor Things. But, of the BAFTA nominees, American Fiction has been my #1 at the Oscars for ages. If not for the British thing, that’s what I would have picked. Did badly in the techs, as usual.)
Don’t Green Book and CODA beg to differ?
I don’t know… That BAFTA snub might still be a big problem, even then. Even factoring in their biases. Because even the jury didn’t pick her – maybe it means she wasn’t high-enough in the votes to even be eligible. (Top 10, does it have to be?! Don’t remember.) And, even if she was, if the jury, which is placed there for just such things, didn’t pick her, why would we think the BAFTA actors would have placed her 4th or 5th?
Tell that to Green Book, or to a lesser extent CODA.
We obviously never do. We can think it is, in some cases, but this can never be proven. We literally can’t know that any award wins ever have been based on merit.
Lead actresses that have won the Oscar despite not winning either SAG or BAFTA, since BAFTA became an Oscar precursor, in 2001: zero.
Actors that have won the Oscar, in any of the four categories, since 2007, without winning either SAG or BAFTA: one, Regina King. Who won both the Globe and Critics Choice (and everything else of note that season) and wasn’t actually nominated by SAG/BAFTA, so she couldn’t win those. Quite different to Hüller’s situation. I think her performance is fantastic, it’s my current #1 in the category, prior to seeing Poor Things. But she’s not winning.
someone should have told the voters about that before voting closed.
Unfortunately, without Payne as Best Director, the Holdovers won’t win Picture.
I guess it could still win WGA. But why would it?!
Screenplay was never happening. One does actually need precursor wins in ATL categories, completely out-of-the-blue Oscar wins just don’t happen there, not really ever, but definitely not when there is a strong front-runner, like American Fiction. I’m starting to like Murphy’s chances, though.
It is still what I’m thinking. Gladstone has the narrative, the performance. She also has the strength of the SAG Ensemble nod. It is still going to be close, I think.
“Don’t count out BAFTA as it’s still among strong indicators for the Oscar’s.”
I obviously very much agree with this, though.
PGA and ACE will decide the animated race, as usual. Boy winning here was always likely. (Copy/paste of the Globes, as usual… Only 1 winner here in the 10 common categories didn’t also win its Globes race: Anatomy of a Fall in foreign/international film.)
Irish is most definitely NOT the same as British, unless you’re specifically talking about Northern Ireland Protestant residents, because the Catholics there damn sure don’t see themselves as British, but Irish. Given everything the Brits have done to the Irish over the past, oh, 8 or 9 centuries, referring to the good people of the Republic as “Brits” can only be construed as insulting. It’s too long to go into here, but seeing as I’m planning a trip this spring to the entire Emerald Isle, check out the quick-and-dirty history lesson in Rick Steve’s travel guide on Ireland–he gets the point across.
This.
And, evidently, The Holdovers can still win screenplay, too. It seems more likely to be Anatomy, but it’s not clear, by any means. The Holdovers may well beat Barbie at WGA (actually, Past Lives still could, too, but I guess it’s very unlikely) even if we won’t know that in time, and, in that case, it can’t be ruled out, just because Anatomy isn’t eligible there. Beating Barbie in original is not that easy, as Critics Choice confirmed.
It remains a serious possibility that Barbie will also win screenplay. It has only lost to a movie in the other category (due to being placed there itself) and did win the Critics Choice, when that movie wasn’t there. I will probably predict American Fiction, for various reasons, but Barbie is not out of it, by any means.