Oscars 2024: Frontrunners and Challengers

As we head into the last gasp of Oscars 2024, there are still a few awards left to hand out before the big night. There is nothing anyone can say or do to change the outcome. We’re either headed for an unprecedented Oppenheimer sweep or the actors in the Academy might see things differently. It’s hard to know these days which way the wind blows. Film Twitter can sometimes obscure the reality, or it can sometimes reveal it.

Coming up this weekend – the following awards:

Cinema Audio Society – March 2, 2024
Scripter Awards – March 2, 2024
American Cinema Editors – March 3, 2024
American Society of Cinematographers – March 3, 2024
Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards (MPSE) – March 3, 2024
Guild of Music Supervisors – March 3, 204

Each of these awards will only tell us so much. The entire Academy votes on the winners, meaning a healthy share of actors vote on categories they might not fully understand (just like the rest of us out here in the dark). We know that editing hardly ever goes to the best-edited film; it goes to the movie they like the most. Sound often goes to the loudest. Cinematography to the prettiest. That’s how the founding fathers and mothers of the Academy set it up and how it has remained these 96 long years.

Since the Oscar ballots have already been turned in, nothing that happens at these remaining guild awards will affect the outcome. But the guilds can give us a final lens through which we can peer at how the nominees’ peers are thinking. Getting the timing of these precursors just right is sometimes the key to bringing in winners on Oscar Night. But there are still things we might be able to discern from these late-dropping awards.

Like — just how popular is Oppenheimer around town anyway? More often than not, in a typical Oscar year, the “frontrunner” is taken down by the “scrappy underdog” in the home stretch. That seems to have never happened this season. In its own quiet way, Oppenheimer flew somewhat under the radar, even if people were predicting it to win. They might not have been predicting a massive sweep, but no “scrappy underdog” ever emerged. Poor Things might be loved by some, but it’s hated by just as many. Barbie might be loved, but maybe also lowkey hated, as well. Both of these films are, at their core, about female empowerment, which can only take you so far in an industry (dominated by men) that needs more THERE there — meaning, somewhat universal stories.

That’s not all there is to it, or else The Holdovers would have been that “scrappy underdog” that took down the frontrunner. If, in the parlance of our times, the current sentiment revolves somehow about oppression, then a beautifully made movie about a young man in need of guidance and finding just the right mentor at just the right time doesn’t resonate as powerfully to the collective at this particular moment in history. Nevertheless, Payne’s quiet masterpiece will be remembered well and beloved my many forever.

The Oscars have never been about awarding the “best” in any year because it’s impossible to know until decades later whether the winners will survive the test of time. Some do, most don’t. But all are mostly good movies. Even Crash is a good movie.

There was never a backlash against Oppenheimer, and that’s likely due to Cillian Murphy and Christopher Nolan being somewhat humble fellows. There was no desire to poke at them the way we sometimes see during Oscar season. The question now isn’t whether Oppenheimer will win Best Picture. We know it will. The question is how many down-ballot Oscars it will win.

Some of the awards this weekend might hold the key to that question. Then again, unless the guilds replicate the same attitude about nominees at the Oscars, we might not get the full picture until the big night.

So let’s go through the categories and see where we are. I’m bouncing off the general consensus here, not my own predictions.

Best Picture
Frontrunner – Oppenheimer
Challenger – none

Best Director
Frontrunner – Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Challenger – none

Best Actor
Frontrunner – Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Challenger – Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
The question is how many voters waited until after the SAG awards to vote. It still might have been Murphy, but it’s possible we see Giamatti take it.

Best Actress
Frontrunner – Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Challenger – Emma Stone, Poor Things
If a significant number of Oscar voters waited to fill out their ballots until after the SAG awards, Gladstone can’t lose. If they didn’t, and the last buzz they felt was for Emma Stone, then it will be an awkward night at the Oscars, especially since they’ve decided to bring back former winners to give a tribute to each of the acting nominees before the envelopes are opened. Presumably, part of the reasoning for that lovely ritual would be to wring maximum emotion from the history-making moment of Gladstone’s win. But it could be awkward, like when Anthony Hopkins beat Chadwick Boseman. They had set it up as the night’s last award, expecting it to bring the house down. Hopkins didn’t even attend the ceremony, he was so certain he would not win. It’s things like this that make me miss Damien Bona and his annual chapter of analysis in his Inside Oscar books.

Supporting Actress
Frontrunner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Challenger: None

Supporting Actor
Frontrunner: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Challenger: None

Original Screenplay
Frontrunner: Anatomy of a Fall
Challenger: Probably none, but if The Holdovers wins here, then that could indicate a Giamatti win is imminent.

Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunner: American Fiction
Challenger: Probably none (otherwise Oppie would have won the BAFTA), but the USC Scripter on March 2 might help us out here. If American fiction doesn’t win and Oppie does, then that indicates a broader sweep is afoot. I do not think that will happen but you never know.

Editing
Frontrunner: Oppenheimer
Challenger: None
Should Oppie lose at the Ace Editors Guild to something else, then it’s time to think about it losing this award. It deserves it and it should win.

Cinematography
Frontrunner: Oppenheimer
Challengers: Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon
Again, watch for the ASC to clarify this one. Rodrigo Prieto, Robbie Ryan, and Hoyte Van Hoytema are each closely associated with their respective directors. Killers is Rodrigo Prieto’s 4th Oscar nomination and 5th ACS nomination without a win. But Oppie should take it.

Production Design
Frontrunner: Poor Things
Challenger: Barbie
We just can’t know how this will flip. Two films about female empowerment that are both strong on the crafts. I think Poor Things takes it but Barbie could win in the crafts to show gratitude for the movie that helped saved Hollywood.

Sound
Frontrunner: The Zone of Interest
Challenger: Oppenheimer
It’s funny to call Oppenheimer the challenger, but this is one of those that could go either way. The problem, as with the ASC, Zone isn’t up against Oppie at the CAS, so we can’t gauge how the industry feels about it. But one way to tell is whether Oppenheiemr wins the CAS. If it takes ACE, CAS, dominates MPSE, and ASC — it’s hard to see it not winning Sound at the Oscars. I will be predicting it, personally.

Visual Effects
Frontrunner: The Creator (but it’s not a stable frontrunner by any means)
Challenger: Probably Godzilla Minus One but any of the other four could take it.

Costumes
Frontrunner: Poor Things
Challenger: Barbie
As with Production Design, here is one that could flip either way. I think, personally, it will depend on how much love or hate there is for either film.

Animated Feature
Frontrunner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Challenger: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary Feature
Frontrunner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Challenger: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

International Feature
Frontrunner: The Zone of Interest
Challenger: None

Makeup and Hair
Frontrunner: Maestro
Challenger: Poor Things, or Oppie in a sweep

Score
Frontrunner: Oppenheimer
Challenger: None but in this case, if we see something else win, that could be a sign that it’s not going to be the sweep we expected.

Song
Frontrunner: What Was I Made For, Barbie
Challenger: I’m Just Ken, Barbie
If these two split the vote, then Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) (Killers of the Flower Moon) could win.

Doc Short
Frontrunner: The ABCs of Book Banning
Challenger: The Last Repair Shop, or Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Both of the challengers are better than the frontrunner, so this is a tough category to call.

Animated Short
Frontrunner: War Is Over
Challenger: Ninety-Five Senses

Live Action Short
Frontrunner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Challenger: The After
The After is better and should win but you never know.

Let’s see what the weekend brings.