Berlin Dispatch – Will Win / Should Win

All 20 films in competition at the 74th Berlin Film Festival have screened, it’s time for guesswork.

The Berlinale has not had much luck with its juries lately. The last two years in a row, the juries of M. Night Shyamalan and Kristen Stewart have chosen some very questionable winners (we don’t forget). These kinds of decisions not only hurt the great films that could have used the boost, they do the festival a disservice as well. This year’s jury is chaired by Lupita Nyong’o and includes filmmakers like Christian Petzold and Albert Serra whose sensibilities cannot be more different. It’s hard to picture this group arriving at any kind of consensus, so there may be some major surprises/shocks waiting to happen.

With that in mind, here are my best guesses at who will go home with a bear tomorrow night:

Outstanding Artistic Contribution
Will win: Evgueni Galperine (music of Architecton)
Should win: Evgueni Galperine (music of Architecton)

This is always an impossible category to predict because the jury could single out any technical aspect of any competition film and this year, there is no obvious choice like legendary DP Hélène Louvart from the last edition. My hunch is they’d want to recognize Victor Kossakovsky’s highly experimental film in some form and this may be it.

Architecton is a documentary about cement (no joke). For the majority of its runtime, it’s just narration-free shots of rocks and buildings. The message of sustainability and architecturally-conscious urban planning delivered at the very end is thought-provoking, but how one responds to the rest of the film will vary greatly. Having said that, there’s no denying the film is beautifully shot and splendidly – often surprisingly – scored. Instead of words, the music composed by Evgueni Galperine is often all there is that guides the viewer through the images. And those electric beats set to footage of pebbles bouncing off a conveyor belt are truly entrancing.

Other possibilities I can think of include the DP’s Ben Bernhard (Architecton), Aziz Zhambakiev (Shambhala), Martin Gschlacht (The Devil’s Bath), Joséphine Drouin-Viallard (Dahomey), Vincent Gonneville (Who Do I Belong To) for their camerawork, Davide Pavanello & Margherita Vicario for the music of Gloria!, Tom Swash for the editing of Pepe.

Best Screenplay
Will win: A Different Man
Should win: Who Do I Belong To

I’m not fully onboard with Aaron Schimberg’s slippery, slightly sinister film but its screenplay is a striking one. Considering the tendency of festival juries to spread the wealth, I’m thinking it could triumph over other contenders here like Dying, Who Do I Belong To, My Favourite Cake, The Devil’s Bath. By the same logic, any of these could win if Adam Pearson gets the Supporting Performance prize for A Different Man as some suspect he will.

Best Supporting Performance
Will win: Esmaeel Mehrabi (My Favourite Cake)
Should win: Corinna Harfouch (Dying)

In my humble opinion, there has not been one good winner in this category since it was created in 2021. Could Lupita’s jury finally buck the trend and pick someone worthy?

My vote this year would go to Corinna Harfouch for her portrayal of the chronically ill, irredeemably bitter mother in Dying. The kitchen table scene she shares with on-screen son Lars Eidinger is one for the ages. Her competition comes in the form of her on-screen daughter Lilith Stangenberg (Dying), the already mentioned Adam Pearson (A Different Man), Emily Watson (Small Things Like These) and especially Esmaeel Mehrabi who delivered a tremendous performance in My Favourite Cake.

My Favourite Cake is easily one of the best films of the competition and stands a good chance of winning the bear. But I secretly suspect it might be a bit too… pleasant/audience-friendly for this jury to earn top honors. They might, however, show their appreciation in the form of awarding Mehrabi along with…

Best Lead Performance
Will win: Lili Farhadpour (My Favourite Cake)
Should win: Lili Farhadpour (My Favourite Cake)

… his co-star Farhadpour who is every bit as warm, charismatic and heartbreaking in the film. The lead acting category is pretty competitive this year, though. There is Anja Plaschg from the period horror film The Devil’s Bath, who portrays a woman slowly wasting away and driven to the depths of madness in 18th century Austria with frightening rigor. Seeing that Lupita herself would probably know to appreciate a good horror performance, a win for Plaschg seems likely.

Then we also have Sidse Babett Knudsen for the intense prison drama Sons, Isabelle Huppert for Hong Sang Soo’s latest whimsical tale A Traveler’s Needs, Cillian Murphy for Small Things Like These, Lars Eidinger for Dying and Salha Nasraoui for Who Do I Belong To.

Best Director
Will win: Nelson Carlo de Los Santos Arias (Pepe)
Should win: Meryam Joobeur (Who Do I Belong To)

This year’s lineup features quite a few fairly out-there, challenging films and I’d expect the jury to recognize that with some of their prizes. In addition to Architecton, we have Pepe, a narrative-documentary hybrid with the ghost of one of Pablo Escobar’s hippos as its protagonist. It’s a truly bizarre film that kind of does everything all at once. Love it or hate it, the direction is unique to say the least and can stand out for that reason. Same goes for French absurdist director Bruno Dumont, whose anti-sci-fi comedy The Empire is very much an acquired taste but may just find big fans in this jury.

Jury Prize
Will win: The Devil’s Bath
Should win: My Favourite Cake

The Devil’s Bath is a handsomely made film that deals with a horrendous subject matter. It is among the best reviewed titles of the festival and I think it won’t go home empty-handed. If it loses the lead performance prize, watch out for either director (Severin Fiala & Veronika Franz) or one of the biggies.

Grand Jury Prize
Will win: Dahomey
Should win: Dahomey

Running barely more than an hour, Mati Diop’s documentary would surely be one of the shortest Berlinale winners ever. But it’s a pristine piece of cinema crafted by someone at the height of their creative prowess. It would be a real shame if it doesn’t pick up some serious hardware tomorrow.

Golden Bear
Will win: Who Do I Belong To
Should win: Who Do I Belong To

Will the jury chaired by a black person for the first time in Berlinale history award the top two prizes to films by (female) directors of African heritage? Well, I certainly hope so. Identity politics aside, Who Do I Belong To and Dahomey are simply two of this comp lineup’s very best. Honoring them would not only be deserved but help remind festival programmers (as well as audiences) everywhere just how much untapped filmmaking talent, how many untold stories the continent has to offer. I’ve been burned so many times by placing my faith in festival juries but I’m doing it again. Lupita, you got this.

Alternatively, a win for My Favourite Cake, which would be a more conservative but no less solid choice, would also make me happy. Making The Devil’s Bath the Golden Bear winner would be quite something but certainly a bold statement that gives horror its due. Pepe would be an even wilder but I guess still conceivable pick. Any other winner I’d consider a shock.

The awards for the 74th Berlinale will be handed out tomorrow night at 7pm local time.