2024 Oscar Predictions – What the Big Guilds This Weekend Might Tell Us

Oscar ballots have been turned in so nothing that happens over the weekend will move the needle, but it will still be interesting as I wrote about yesterday, with Frontrunners and Challengers. So we decided to put in our predictions heading in, followed by my Oscar predictions this week.

Let’s do this.

The USC Scripter – Saturday, March 2

The nominees:

American Fiction – Stone, Moye, Johnson
Origin – Adams
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer – Flores
Poor Things

The Cinema Audio Society – Saturday, March 2

Live Action
Oppenheimer – Stone, Flores, Moye, Johnson, Adams
Barbie
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon
Ferrari

Animated:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse– Stone, Flores, Moye, Johnson, Adams
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The Super Mario Brothers Movie

Documentary
American Symphony – Flores, Moye, Adams
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour – Stone
32 Sounds – Johnson
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Little Richard: I am Everything

Motion Picture Sound Editors – Sunday, March 3, 2024

Foley:
Oppenheimer – Stone, Flores, Moye, Johnson, Adams
Ferrari
The Killer
John Wick: Chapter 4
Napoleon
Gran Turismo

Dialogue/ADR
Oppenheimer – Stone, Flores, Johnson
Barbie – Moye
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Napoleon

Music
Barbie – Flores, Adams
Oppenheimer – Moye
Maestro – Stone, Johnson
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Wonka
Creed III

Animation
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Stone, Flores, Moye, Johnson, Adams
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Elemental
Migration

Documentary
32 Sounds – Moye, Johnson
American Symphony – Flores, Stone, Adams
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Mourning in Lod

Foreign Film
The Zone of Interest – Stone, Flores Moye, Johnson, Adams
Society of the Snow
Godzilla Minus One
Anatomy of a Fall

American Society of Cinematographers – March 3, 2024

Feature Film
Oppenheimer- Stone, Flores, Moye, Johnson
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things – Adams
Maestro
El Conde

Documentary
Kokomo City – Flores, Moye, Johnson
Coal
Murder in Big Horn – Stone, Adams

Ace Eddie Awards – March 3, 2024

Drama
Oppenheimer – Stone, Flores, Moye, Johnson, Adams
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives

Comedy/Musical
The Holdovers – Flores 
Poor Things – Moye, Johnson
Barbie – Stone
American Fiction – Adams
Air

Onward to predictions.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

1. Oppenheimer 
2. The Holdovers
3. American Fiction
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Maestro
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives

Best Actor

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

Best Actress

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Annette Bening, Nyad
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” – LOCKED
2. Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
4. Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — LOCKED
2. Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
3. Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
4. America Ferrera, “Barbie”
5. Jodie Foster, “Nyad”

Achievement in Directing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan — LOCKED
2. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese
4. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer

Adapted Screenplay

Extremely rare for a single writer to win both screenplay and director.  Barbie and Poor Things likely cancel each other out.

1. “American Fiction,” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
2. “Barbie,” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
3. “Oppenheimer,” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
4. “Poor Things,” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Written by Jonathan Glazer

Original Screenplay

1. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Screenplay — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
2. “The Holdovers,” Written by David Hemingson
3. “Maestro,” Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
4. “May December,” Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
5. “Past Lives,” Written by Celine Song

Achievement in Production Design

1. “Poor Things”
2. “Barbie” 
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Sound

1. “Oppenheimer” 
2. “The Zone of Interest”
3. “The Creator” 
4. “Maestro”
5. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”

Achievement in Visual Effects

1. “Godzilla Minus One”
2. “The Creator”  
3. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
4. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Film Editing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Jennifer Lame
2. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
3. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Laurent Sénéchal
4. “The Holdovers,” Kevin Tent
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Thelma Schoonmaker

Achievement in Cinematography

1. “Oppenheimer,” Hoyte van Hoytema
2. “Poor Things,” Robbie Ryan
3. “El Conde,” Edward Lachman
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Rodrigo Prieto
5. “Maestro,” Matthew Libatique

Achievement in Costume Design

1. “Barbie,” Jacqueline Durran
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jacqueline West
3. “Napoleon,” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
4. “Oppenheimer,” Ellen Mirojnick
5. “Poor Things,” Holly Waddington

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. “20 Days in Mariupol”  
2. “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
3. “The Eternal Memory”
4. “Four Daughters”
5. “To Kill a Tiger”

Best Documentary Short Film

1. “The Last Repair Shop”
2. “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
3. “The ABCs of Book Banning” 
4. “The Barber of Little Rock”
5. “Island in Between”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Robot Dreams”

Best International Feature Film of the Year

1. “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
2. “Perfect Days,” Japan
3. “Society of the Snow,” Spain
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
5. “Io Capitano,” Italy

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

1. “Maestro”
2. “Golda”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Society of the Snow”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

1. “Oppenheimer,” Ludwig Göransson
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Robbie Robertson
3. “Poor Things,” Jerskin Fendrix
4. “American Fiction,” Laura Karpman
5. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” John Williams

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

1. “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
2. “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
3. “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
   Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
4. “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
   Music and Lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
5. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
   Music and Lyrics by Scott George

Best Animated Short Film

1. “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
2. “Letter to a Pig,” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
3. “Ninety-Five Senses,” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
4. “Our Uniform,” Yegane Moghaddam
5. “Pachyderme,” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

Best Live Action Short Film

1. “The After,” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
2. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
3. “Invincible,” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
4. “Knight of Fortune,” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
5. “Red, White and Blue,” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane

Some of these might change after this weekend, but for now, this is all I got.