The SAG/AFTRA awards have released their calendar for this year. Here is how it shakes out, vis a vis the Oscars. It’s a hit and miss prospect, whether the Oscars will match the SAG awards. Last year, Lily Gladstone won the SAG and lost the Oscar to Emma Stone, on account of the Oscars mirroring the BAFTAs almost exactly. It makes sense if you imagine voters voting as soon as they got their ballots and not waiting out the SAG awards to catch any sort of wave of enthusiasm. The window was tight this past year. Would they have still picked Emma Stone? Ya. You don’t get that naked in a movie and have that much sex and give a great performance on top of that without pulling in the gold statue (ladies, take note).
But you never know. I am saving more in-depth analysis of the Oscars for a column coming in a bit, so I won’t go into detail too much except to say that this season, it really won’t matter who wins the SAG/AFTRA unless there is just one solid consensus all the way through – which does sometimes happen. Awards shows can be influential if people watch them and they help shape consensus.
Now that the SAG awards are exclusively on Netflix, does that mean more people watch or less? Or are people so checked out they only watched Poor Things, Barbie and Oppenheimer? Who knows. Either way, it won’t make much of a difference now. But, FYI.
2024
November 26th – Ballots sent to voters (Golden Globes)
December 4 – Ballots due (Golden Globes)
December 9 – Nominations announced (Golden Globes)
December 9th – preliminary voting begins (Oscars)
December 13th – Final ballots mailed (Golden Globes)
December 13th – preliminary voting ends (Oscars)
December 16th – Voting starts (Screen Actors Guild)
2025
January 1 – Final ballots due (Golden Globes)
January 5 – 82nd Annual Golden Globes
January 5 – Voting closes (Screen Actors Guild)
January 8 – Nominations Announced (Screen Actors Guild)
January 8 – Nominations voting begins 9 a.m. PT (Oscars)
January 12 – Nominations voting ends 5 p.m. PT, Sunday (Oscars)
January 15 – Final voting starts (Screen Actors Guild)
January 17 – Oscars Nominations
February 11 – Finals voting begins 9 a.m. PT (Oscars)
February 18 – Finals voting ends 5 p.m. PT (Oscars)
February 21 – Final voting closes (Screen Actors Guild)
February 23 – Screen Actors Guild Awards
March 2 – 97th Oscars
Working on it.
clearly, there are issues, I hope.
I don’t see how anyone watches True Grit and decides that Steinfeld is supporting lol. AMPAS is crazy.
You asked nicely to considerable extent I concur but it not something I insist I ask you as a question : don’t you think perception of Oscars success or not with ratings ( it is fact it used to be evrn in beginning of digital streaming age 30-35 million viewers granted even with small ratings improvement wirh Oppenheimer compared to last few years , and also BEFORE the pref ballot amendments occurred).
But why you say oscar ratings don’t matter ? In interview with Hollywood reporter ( was some time ago but you more thsn capable finding thst link ) I think was back whrn he was appointed in 2021 as Academy CEO Bill Kramer acknowledged ( note this is an adapted quote from my memory but relative similar to concept of what he getting at ) ” Just cos we have increase in accommodating streaming channels and audiences doesn’t mean we don’t regard appeal of our show through traditional broadcast means is any less important …the Academy has always had it associations and appeal driven by appeal through the abc broadcast it a important part of the Academy’s ability to honor it broader appeal …hence ratings are considerable consideration..”
Now before you go telling me I putting words in ceo Kramer’s mouth . .. if you see that exclusive interview he did….is my interpretation NOT that dissimilar in principle and intent and goals to what Academy Ceo said upon his appointment in that interview ?
Yes..ratings not be all and end all BUT you can’t dismiss importance of ability of Academy to remain relevant to more pple ..isn’t that what you want too ?
I cross reference to recent topics that Sasha introduced I in strong agreement : it NOT about any issue at all (i DONT have either) of different cultures or ethnicities or gender ot ABOUT telling stories that have appeal beyond their core targeted demographic. ..stories that captivate considerable parts of mainstream..it CAN be done with characters of different rave, ethnicity etc issue is where the stories are SOURCED from can they key into things broadly that broader audience can relate to ? Rather thsn specific targeted limited appeal?
There IS a way it can be done dear Ryan… and key IS important role of I be more specific tying in yo what Academy ceo Bill Kramer conceded in his interview upon his appintm4nt as ceo president:” we don’t want give any oscar watcher the impression we don’t take seriously Academy green in our history cos we consider the traditional broadcast viewership ” been with us for long time …” ( again I can’t remember quote exactly as was few yrs ago but again it consistent to idea and interpretation what he said at time)..
Guess what u be shocked to learn that films won oscar like Parasite and EEAAO is step in right direction for trying to connect broader audience e to more thematically targeted specific matters and issues in both films stories? I actually never said neither Parasite nor EEAAO did not hope I never did of I did I happy u piint out i did say that I admit happily I was wrong say that .. bit I don’t believe I ever doubted they were a hit …I just don’t agree with way words like ‘ phrnomena’ too generously applied or that all major Oscars should gone to both those films – given abdolute quality other contenders but that doesn’t mean I don’t admire they sought to considerable degree both these films resonate to broader base thrn their primary demographic I admire they did … yes thst includes eeaao. ( I remember describing Parasite as excellent but not as great as some made it out to be .. )
But just to assure you so as per above hopefully Ryan you see I believer in rhis day and age there way to BUILD on originsl bold stories where more specific thematic focus represent a minority culture or community etc can speak and reach out to a broader cinematic mainstream ..I DO desoute my reservations if EXTRNT of Oscar love going one way to both eso in EEAO ‘s year I still salute BOTH Parasite and EEAAO for setting NEW PRECEDENT of more acquired taste film speaking to broader audience than predecessor similar type films did.. well it first step ..not in wrong track there qt all …
But on matter of ‘ perception ‘ I taking care not to lsmbast the guilds I trying be constructive… minus my now I hope I shoeing it past bile and abler what piint ? I know oscar won’t listen…( I wish )..
But perception : maybe your right maybe it more bout perception of Oscars successive mishits as to what wins what get nominated va ehat they HOPE prefer to one from year before that perception of misfires and m8shits to majority disillusioned former oscar watchers ( it sTILL is despite ratings u pint out last few years whopping lost 8 million down whwt it was before the pref ballot changes era)… but your right it prob less Guilds scheduling than it is perception of Oscar outcome winners that at odds with broader audience sentiment of prior year there been nominations..
HOWEVER I myself don’t see point of SAG being literally 2 days before oscar ceremony and not wanting be counted as having input as PART of AMPAS voting like isn’t it compliment yo power I resoect come to of SAG that given ‘ actors rule ‘ and the sheer number of SAG members part of that guild wouldn’t they want have degree of reasonable influence on oscar votes in acting categories? How that achievable as should be when SAG just 2 days before oscar AFTER ballots finalised for Oscars?
Isn’t it comment suggest too that SAG voting should occur BEFORE bafta?
When Oscars have the brains to create long overdue stun ensemble category at Oscars…people been calling on Oscars to present this category for some time u gotta wonder why oscar won’t listen..not just to me surely in Hollywood some stun organisations and representatives must get really frustrated for numerous decades that highest risk film role are in fsct the stunt men and women and they get total lack of recognition by NOT having their own oscar category yet they very much HEART AND SOUL of what breathes realism and memorability in Hollywood’s most unforgettable action sequences in truly remarkable action films isn’t it well past time there stunt ensemble pscar category ? It inexcusable how that make those stun men and women who put their lives on the line time and again and for whwt ? Actually I ask mire broadly as well to you whwt u all think that ??
Omg that soooo true… given it impact on our culture combined with it success of BOTH movies but way deadpool was subversive and CHALLENGING to debunk tride and true ( at times) tiresome formulaic nature of genre movies namely NOT playing it ‘ safe’ which Deadpool soo did not ( thankfully)…and interesting to note it stands alone in marvel or comic book franchise as only big studio comic book adaptation was not only arguably totally true to it source material , but ij doing do did not soften anything brutal or ultra violent which was what fans and non fans of deadpool esp existing fans would expect to be shown for story to be told as close to comics of his origin story as much as possible..it was THE TRUE genre boundary breaker that year ey?
And it still is for calibre..and quality for big studio film best all Leitch’s assured direction made it as entertaining and funny albeit at times in truly darkly comic way as possible but endlessly engaging.
Maybe it ‘ our fault’ as a film loving society we suckers to ultra violence and sex but here the caveat: specifically when filmmaker does not seek to placate group think and go their OWN way and in addition to NOT compromise on integrity of source adored Screenplay out fear being different to mainstream…yet deadpool was bold type ‘ new mainstream ‘ timely you raise this my friend. ..here…cos is any coincidence as part of steps I hope to mcu regeneration makeover , that ” deadpool and wolverine ” is first film in new reworked mcu?
Plus they simply HAD have deadpool MSN crush on wolverine all built up in his love- hate relationship in deadpools prior films so heavily referenced bring back Hugh Hackman as wolverine in the fold ey ?
This proves thanx for reminding me how seriously watered down that same oscar year’s competition to EEAAo really was u make absolutely relevant point thst puts what WASNT SHOULDVE been nominated into perspective…ey?
Our Fascist movement and their philosophy grew slowly from the 1920 for 15 years. Then it grew in confidence when our neighbors Spain and France also attracted the poor people to become Fascists. Yes even in France, if you know about the Croix de Feu, Cross of Fire in France? They too were young lowerclass men attracted to fascism. Listen to me please. If it happened even in France 100 years ago, the USA should not doubt it can happen to America too in modern times. Believe me on this. We here look toward America’s Trump party as slow horror movie happening. Please stop them.
You get A- from me on your essay, Ryan. Yes too, even the homosexual mentality is much written about, because the Blackshirts they were haters of women. We learn some of this already in our early years of schooling. The director Bertolucci, he is not inventing it for his movie. It is much discussed by students of history.
In our early years of school here, we do not learn any one thing ever at about American history, not until college. Then when we are mature we can see the connections. I will make a wager nobody in their teenage years in America knows any one thing about Italy’s history either. You should be teaching them.
You got it all about 90% correct, Ryan. I would grade you with A-
Where I would mark you down. The men that became the Squadrismo Blackshirts started to group in 1920s before Mussolini in 1930s. Before them they were Squadre d’Azione, the Squad of Action. They were always bullies and not so much the innocents looking to be accepted. They only cared to accepted each other. Before the 1930s they already became armed with guns as militia. Yes it is true, the formally Fascists also were proud to be bullies. They all would wear their Black shirts to make known their common beliefs they held together. They the Fascist men, and most of them younger generation, began as gangs. The gangs became more organized to become Italy’s national militia. They killed anyone that opposed them with little consequence.
Where you are correct is how the way they became unified as the bundle of reeds, it was all propaganda to make so many of the lower economic class men believe they had greater individual power if they bonded together.
The militia Fascists lied to the poor people, the poor young men, that had economic struggle they desired to escape. Then the propaganda became national policy when Mussolini rose up to power. He would tell the lower class anything they wanted to hear. Mussolini had his appeal to young men when he made them believe he had macho/machismo. All he really was doing is teach young men to be bullies. Very much same as we here now see your Trump tries to do. Same propaganda. we see the Trump Party tell the lowerclass and the ones with no education that can be the powerful ones. They tell them that lie. Then these young men wanted to believe it. It was all a lie in 1930s. Same today in USA, same lie.
Josh has that weird look.
I don’t find him particularly attractive, though. I just think he’s a stellar actor. One that needs to be added to the growing list of stellar actors of this generation.
I will always believe that 2,3,4 were very close. And maybe even American Fiction at 5.
At the very least it would have made it a more interesting race.
Sandra Huller might have benefitted bigtime. I could see her taking on Stone in the category and possibly winning since Anatomy was probably better loved and she was Anatomy, pretty much.
yeah, now that I actually do some thinking, I once knew that one can nominate in either category and all of the votes count but you get nominated in the category you get the most votes in.
I should have been more precise and sad “Campaigned” – I was thinking of the Emmys, I think.
Wasn’t that her fifth nomination? I think that makes a difference.
Not sure of the competition that year either. I remember it being pretty poor. That also makes a difference.
I knew nothing of the “plot” going in and was a little thrown that suddenly we seemed to be in the ww2 era. I will tackle it later. My mind seems most awake for such far in the 9PM to 11PM slot – but on Wednesday that’s Survivor and The Amazing Race, which I kind of need to watch as it happens otherwise they will likely be spoiled for me. But overall yesterday, I just had a weak mental health day. It happens from time to time. But thanks to the marvels of buproprion it usually only lasts a day! (I am forever grateful my depression is truly manageable)
—-
Have the day off (as I do most days anymore, hooray for rich parents!) so I was looking through the Kino library. It’s total crap! Well, at last to me. 90% looks like second rate Euro Art House that time has forgotten. And the other 10% looks like festival films that couldn’t get distribution. That may appeal to some people, not me, not so much. Couldn’t find any gay films.
But I did discover a film called “The End of the World” I instantly had to watch. It ‘s a 1938 flick from Michael Powell that takes place on a dying Scottish isle (due to lack of economic forces) and it’s also a romantic drama – it starts with a derring-do cliff climbing race!
I find it fascinating because it so readily needs to be compared to the Banshees of Inisherin. There’s even a super old woman! At only 75 minutes it was worth the time, but I would never rank it on the best of all time list. Maybe on the best of 1938 list, but only because I doubt I’ve even seen ten films from 1938. The Island is beautiful, even with shoddy 1938 cinematography.
wet sweaty Zendaya > dry sandy Zendaya
I don’t think anyone can pick anything as “surefire” until at least Cannes and the Summer Blockbuster season is upon us.
There will be a Dune 3 from what I am gathering. So fencesitters may wait.
Dune, as everyone should be reminded came out during the pandemic. 2021 wasn’t as weak as 2020, but in the overall scheme of things, it was pretty piss poor.
If 2024 ends up being as strong a year as 2023, Dune 2 could get left off the list.
I think you’re right.
We can’t know for sure until they both get nominated for going nude the same year. A plan that I happily endorse.
You’re right.
I thought I could get away with simplifying it by saying the wording was “officially changed” — which is true.
But individual producers each year can do whatever they want and nobody is going to arrest them.
For some reason, I don’t think Emma Stone is many straight men’s idea of a hot woman. They probably picture somebody who has Margot Robbie’s body, not Emma’s.
Hailee Steinfeld was being pushed for Lead in True Grit.
BAFTA nominated her in Lead.
AMPAS nominated her in Supporting
Critics Choice nominated her as “Best Young Performer” in 2011 and 2016, even when she insisted she was plenty old enough.
[Full Disclosure: I interviewed her the year of True Grit, and she was mean to me, so I never even typed up the fucking transcript to post it.]
The orange monster is absolutely delusional… Nothing new. I hope the media will forget about him (and I know it won’t happen). This is what he thrives on.
But the editorial fact-check is flawed. The last time the phrase “And the winner is…” was used officially was in 2010, 14 years ago. The producers changed it, and of all presenters, only Kate Winslet didn’t give up on “And the Oscar goes to…” when she presented Best Actor.
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas) had campaigned in Lead, and got nominated in supporting alongside Oscar winner Daniel Kaluuya.
Tom Hanks wasn’t allowed to get a kiss from his own lover in Philadelphia.
(His character, I mean, not Tom himself.)
How can we say that the year is weak before essentially seeing any of the films?
You’re right bringing up both Dune 2 and Challengers as already significant contenders. But both of those were supposed to be fall/Oscar releases. Now they are in the race already in April and we’ll get the usual slate of fall/Oscar releases later. If anything, that means that this could be a pretty strong year.
I think you’re right, Sammy.
Doesn’t matter what the actor/actress wants.
Doesn’t matter the studio or publicist wants.
The category placement is 100% decided by the voters on their nominations ballots.
Those ballots are not multiple-choice questions. They are blank lines.
actor wasnt that close
McConaughey was always the favorite that season. That was such an Oscar bait role.
I have to add “quasi” because we used to have a warning on this site that calling people “racists” would cross the line.
That’s why I can only say things like this on twitter:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1780977886322708794
I don’t think The Holdovers was a distant #2. It was on the verge of winning both Original Screenplay and Best Actor.
Kate Winslet had campaigned in supporting (won SAG and GG in supporting for The Reader) – yet both BAFTA and AMPAS put her in LEAD for The Reader – and awarded her in that category.
Oscar ratings 2023: 18.8 million
Oscar ratings 2024: 19.5 million
700k more
Yes, we realize that a lot people were eager to pretend that their incessant demand to give all the Oscars to a blockbuster to “save the Oscars” had come true.
Yes, we also realize that the numbers don’t actually verify or prove that incessant demand at all.
CODA made about 75 cents at the box-office and virtually the same number of people watched the Oscars that year as the number who tuned in for the $1,000,000,00 movie.
Here’s the only ratings metric that matters to networks and advertisers.
There Is No Non-Sports Program that EVER Gets Higher Ratings than the Oscars.
That’s why it’s still a hugely important money-machine for ABC.
yeah, that too. They don’t even try to hide it. If he lives (Chalamet in CMBYN) no Oscar.
Also, Hollywood straight male voters really really like gay characters whose lives end in horrible tragedy.
Philadelphia, Monster, Dallas Buyer’s Club, The Whale.
This is nothing new.
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Agreed.
Some. Oppenheimer win was by a large margin.
I do think it was very close between CODA and Dune. TPOTD was disliked and Dune took #2. And given the biggest number of wins it must have been close. I bet that Actors saved CODA but non-acting voters went for Dune.
Nah, Biden will win and AMPAS won’t have any reason to nominate it. Biden win saved the Oscars from Borat 2 embarrassment. They don’t get (stupidly) edgy with their choices if there’s no reason for defiance.
Josh made me go wait, Prince Charles is hot?
Precisely.
it’s going to be a hit in theatrical too cause, unlike Saltburn, it doesn’t have a platform release that couldn’t reach the right audience.
Leo should have won for WOWS but he had the misfortune that media and industry fell in love with McConaissance whose stars couldn’t have lined up better:
True Detective peaking at the right time? Check (he basically won for it)
McConaissance narrative upstaging Leo’s Oscar? check
Scene stealing scene in WOWS itself? Check
all that on top of weight loss + illness/disability which AMPAS loves as much as historical figures (Oh wait apparently that box was checked too!)
Eh seeing how Randolph steamrolled Supporting, I don’t think Gladstonewould have won in that category over her. Pay attention to what Sammy sais. Oppenheimer didn’t have a challenger so technically no #2 yet the very distant next in line was The Holdovers. Hence my bet that Randolph would have swept Gladstone or not.
Since AMPAS consists of 10K people, many don’t vote for history and that’s fine. Also, one has to put history in the context and it mostly means From American POV. With increase in internaitonal membership, the interest in that is understandably down. I think that historical wins happen because people were in the right movies or made right movies not because of the historical narrative. and KOTFM simply wasn’t that.
How is Dune 2 not strong enough for freakin Top 10? The year is weak. It got stronger reviews than the first movie. It made much more money than the first movie. Big directors are already hailing it and Villeneuve whose snub for the first movie was ridiculous. Challengers looks like another potential Picture nominee and first nom for Zendaya.
Can you please leave Jerm alone?
Jerm understands what’s going on and he doesn’t need you to lecture him.
Wrong. the 2020 Oscars had 23.6 million viewers.
This year the Oscars had 19.5 million viewers.
(it ticked up to 21 million when they counted viewers who watched recordings of the broadcast.)
Can you please go a week without setting your hair on fire about how how the guilds need to line up like obedient little soldiers in order to not upset your wacky theories that the guilds are “experimenting” and ruining everyone’s interest in the Oscars?
You will be shocked to discover that 7.9 billion people do not give the slightest fuck whether the WGA awards take place in February or April or never.
It’s bizarre to me that you think you can magically fix the Oscar ratings if you could control what night the guilds have their awards.
It’s also bizarre that you or anyone else can waste so much time worrying about the Oscar ratings.
(Hope you didn’t start reading all that before I edited and rewrote it 5 times.)
Man, my head wasn’t in it. I got 30 minutes into the conformist and realized I hadn’t a clue.
I was almost going to advise that you be aware the movie is structured in layers of flashbacks.
But I’m sure everyone feels disoriented in the first 30 minutes, so I think the disorientation is deliberate, as part of its impact.
Now that you see that, it’s not going to diminish that impact to talk about it. Just a little.
In the opening shot of Marcello in the hotel room (Jean-Louis Trintignant), we are in the present moment. During the opening credits, in the red blinking red light of the hotel sign, we see him contemplating. This is to be a fateful day for him. He’s thinking what he’s gotten himself into, and at what cost. The driver who picks him up is not a good guy. He’s Marcello’s handler. They take off on their early morning journey, and as he rides along, Marcello recalls everything that led him to this day, every bad decision that led him down this path. So everything else we see over the next 90 minutes are his memories. His memories are then revealed in the movie in pretty much chronological order.
I think it’s also okay to know that the movie is about how an average man in the comfort of 1930s Italy could allow himself to get swept up in the Fascist movement. For Marcello it’s all tangled up in his own psychosexual need to be accepted, to conform. And in his desire to do the right thing, we see how a few wrong choices ruin everything.
===
This next part is not about you or me! It’s just another general observation I want to make.
A mistake in misunderstanding 1930s terminology that I see so many otherwise smart people make today: Since we all now accept that “Fascism” is a moral and political horror show, we forget how it was originally simply the name given a movement to attract adherents into the fold.
People who were Fascists in 1930s Italy were proud to say so. Just like the Nazis were proud to be called that.
Fascist meant “bundle of reeds,” to signify the way the common man was stronger if he bonded with his like-minded buddies.
There are otherwise smart people I see on twitter who try to claim that the bundle represents “all the powerful forces bundled together against the people.”
— It’s stunning to me that they get this so wrong. It means exactly the opposite. It’s the screwiest interpretation I’ve ever seen.
To be Fascista was a rallying cry to attract disaffected young men into the movement — (and Bertolucci loved to throw the homosexual impulse to bond with other men into his anti-fascist movies)
The “bundle” of Fascists in 1930s were these young Italian men seeking acceptance and shared brotherhood. Fascism did not mean “a bundle of corporations and media consolidating power to beat down the citizens” as some wrongheaded people today try to claim.
But you can’t tell those people anything, because they think they know everything.
Sorry if I’ve stated the obvious, but I wanted to keep this on a top-level surface explanation The Conformist without giving anything away.
You would’ve easily figured all this out on your own as you got deeper into the movie. And you will, whenever you feel like tackling it again.
I don’t think Dune 2 is strong enough to be a guarantee, or even a near guarantee. I have no clue if there will be blockbusters that are better this year. Or how strong the year will be.
I give it a 50/50 shot.
The film with the best shot at a nomination right now appears to be Challengers.
It would be really tough for it to get nominated for anything other than Stunt Ensemble at the Oscars.
It’s been a long time since a similar film got nominated for BP. Did Romancing the Stone make the cut? I forget.
Ryan Gosling is riding high and I feel like his next competitive performance he will be the clear front runner. His Oscar performance is legendary and will remain so. He has built up a lot of good will.
But his schtick here (at least in the trailer) is fairly straightforward. There is nothing to pull this towards nomination territory even if it hits a billion worldwide.
It’s a solvable riddle only if you dig very very deep. I made sure no one could figure it out. I didn’t want anyone coming along and suing me for saying they enjoy my scat videos. Not that anyone would admit it!
(Oh, dear, I have sunk to a new low)
But it’s not a Gosling movie. Think of the post as a horror movie with a really bad twist. Enough to make a king go mad.
Man, my head wasn’t in it. I got 30 minutes into the conformist and realized I hadn’t a clue. Went to watch my 4th episode of Don’t Hate the Player instead, it’s a trashy new Netflix French reality show. I can rationalize watching it because it’s French. At least some of the participants have a sense of social responsibility.
And I have to say, it’s only watchable because it is French. If you put tawdry Americans into this situation it would be a nightmare.
But that’s where my head’s been at lately. I can binge American Horror Story, but I look at titles like Shogun and Ripley with dread.
yes, I agree, I need to.
I figured I would wait until streaming. I also am looking forward to La Chimera, which I am hoping either plays locally or goes to streaming soon.
Ugly men will get turned on by Poor Things. Look, that ugly guy is banging Hot Emma. Wow. LOL!
the blockbuster spot is Dune II already. Unsure if this will last all throughout the Awards season…
Deadpool deserved to be nominated at the Oscars, including Best Picture and Lead Actor and Adapted Screenplay (at least… Make Up and Film Editing should have been in order as well), but it was just too much for the average AMPAS member. But I think that without Deadpool being snubbed (or The LEGO Movie, for the matter) and the backlash on the AMPAS for not daring to go for those films, probably the EEAAO sweep wouldn’t have happened.
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Fall guy for Oscars? Why not lot brilliant talking points this film David Veitch been formidable fascinating director some time .deadpool anyone ??
Despite your claim oacar returned best ratings in 5 years plus…. debunks the ‘ myth’ that :
A) big studio big films made very well that resonate and are hugely critically acclaimed DONT make a difference and
B) THAT SAG shouldn’t have influence more than BAFTA on oscar outcomes…well sorry SAG been intertwined is much bigger part of Oscars and academy than BAFTA is. ..overall…
Guilds are AMERICAN Hollywood based whereas reality is while there are some AMPAS m3nbers who derive from BAFTA that Brirish Academy has reinforced hy it juries other voting systems that it indeed overall separate entity to the Avademy with it own voting systems and approach and culture as they the BRITISH academy NOT Hollywood Academy!
Hence it totally untrue that anyone should be cheering for mire of same ‘unpredictability’ that has all but diminished and drastically profoundly reduced Oscars broader appeal ..last year not withstanding.
In fact it factually true BEFORE the pref ballot system was any coincidence that Oscars ratings were higher when SAG in fact did foretell the outcome?? In respective acting awards?
It is NOT insult and big complement of guild choices be reflected in Oscars outcome it says how powerful organisation is and no it does not convey the other myth that AMPAS can vote independently of SAG but Guilds part their role is they a precursor that way they Bern for MOST of time while qt same time doing great things to represent their constituencies of nest and brightest of creative minds we all celebrate .
But one- two unison betwen Guilds and oscar not all time MOST of time is under threat by ‘ experimentation ‘ by SAG to be less relevant as a precursor by allowing BAFTA to be main influencing outcome. This is wrong.. and constant date change year to year will only end of frustrating putting off more potential people to tune into Oscars they will be MORE NOT less likely to remain disillusioned eith oscar ..I realky disappointed after last year SAG started earn my trust back and number of pples by retaining their traditional scheduled slot despite the strike I commended them cos they stuck as close to their schedule and wanted to be counted as part of Oscars voting pattern .
I have no idea as most pple why as saying is ‘ of ot ain’t broke don’t fix it ‘ it not good look to numbernpple I hoped this wouldn’t happen in inspiring confidence or reason have mire faith SAG sees itself as important indicator to Oscars as should be MORE important in pecking order rhan BAFTA. Schedule changes is what jeopardises flow and stability in way eventual oacar outcomes occur … this seems a concerning step backwards based on proposed or set timelines rhis years Oscars rhis will only make Oscars ratings go backwards…it very true perception esp in 2 months leading to award season of publicity what Guilds do timing they do it DOES make.. or break Oscars ratings increase or decline
Go watch Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s About Dry Grasses – if you haven’t done so….
You needed a script. Compare it to Salvador and it pales.
Liable rapist says what?
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Quasi???
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God, that was soooo hot.
Daffy is too. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d983c67224a2397e1cce8e4932e7fffe41d01580dca3c22acf8481cba8e7904.gif
Wells is too strange.
I can’t think of words vulgar enough to describe him.
I think the only one I have seen is Two for the Road.
Fantastic!
I felt for sure that you might have seen half of them. But I couldn’t not take a chance.
Maybe I left off The Conversation because I knew you must have seen it? But no, I just forgot.
With The Conformist, get ready to soak your eyeballs in the most lustrous, vividly rich cinematography ever.
I hope you can find a great HD restoration.
Images is Altman’s riff on Don’t Look Now.
Vilmos Zsigmond shot Images.
Look what else he did: !!
McCabe & Mrs. Miller (1971)
Images (1972)
Deliverance (1972)
The Long Goodbye (1973)
Scarecrow (1973)
Cinderella Liberty (1973)
The Sugarland Express (1974)
Obsession (1976)
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977)
The Deer Hunter (1978)
The Rose (1979)
Heaven’s Gate (1980)
Coppola got a 35mm print of The Conformist and made it available 24/7 at Zoetrope Studio for the cast and crew during the filming of The Conversation.
Have fun!
I’m coming up empty on this royal riddle challenge you’ve given me…
Gosling is a baby goose.
The Ryan in Winter …?
The Ryan, the Witch, and the Wardrobe …?
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I am overloaded, thanks – I will have to cut and paste your post!
As for Ripley, I don’t know. I am just not in the mood. I am currently struggling to get through some Hulu fare like Shogun and We Were the Lucky Ones. I haven’t been in the mood to be too cerebral beyond that. I will get there though.
Of all those listed, I think the only one I have seen is Two for the Road.
Wondering why you didn’t mention The Conversation in the paranoid thrillers?
I think I am going to go with The Conformist as that’s always been near the top of the Films I Should Watch (La Dolce Vita being the other one you mentioned.)
I am a big Altman fan, but I’ve actually seen very few. From the early 70’s I think I’ve only seen Nashville, McCabe and Mrs Miller and MASH. Never even heard of Images!
But you’ve just opened up new worlds for me!
Also heard Wells just picked on Gladstone’s size because he’s got this weird hangup on looks.
Likewise how he kept saying Cillian shouldn’t win because “he looks like a space alien.”
First thing that springs to mind is Victim (1961)– another posh gay-themed brit-grit classic with Dirk Bogard.
Sunday Bloody Sunday (1971) ?
I’ll think some more.
Not dived into Ripley yet?
===
k, I’m back.
Two for the Road (1967) sophisticated af
Room at the Top (1959)
The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone (1961)
Butterfield 8 (1960)
… many months ago you and I talked about this:
Some Came Running (1958)
Harper (1965)
thing about all of these, they all have a dash of “soap opera” — classy but tawdry,
(are all of these too old?)
(something 1970s?)
Have you seen Altman’s
Images (1972)
California Split (1974)
I guess for absolute sure you’ve see all the 1970s paranoid thrillers.
Parallax View (1974) *****
Klute (1971)
Night Moves (1975)
Cutter’s Way (1982) !! omg
I’m veering way away from “movies like Darling” — except the common thread among all these is : good-looking rich people and their tangled webs they weave.
….. or that clueless Italian family movie.
k, let me get back on track
You. know at times I felt that Schlesinger was doing a riff on this:
La Dolce Vita (1961)
Rocco and His Brothers (1960)
The Damned (1969)
The Night Porter (1974)
Investigation of a Citizen Above Suspicion (1970) ***** !!!
The Conformist (1970) ***** one of my top 5 favorite movies of all time.
Ryan, if you see this, I need a movie to watch tonight. (Not something current) but something that fills a hole I have. You know, something like Darling or that clueless Italian family movie.
Going to watch Amazing Race, I’ll be back.
look at our own results this year. A couple of categories were statistically tied.
there’s a reason fat guy porn exists, it’s because some consumers need to feel relevant. I am sure the Academy is filled with such people who felt some nostalgia for the Good Ol Days.
This message from Trump makes me feel bad for Al Pacino.
I make videos for at least five of them! Hint: One of them has the same name as a certain baby animal.
(I’ll give you a hint – he was in a BP nominee that was about a member of a royal family)
This is the surreal nonsense trump spews every day, Renzo.
The more stupidly embarrassing and disgracefully unstable the rumor you hear about him, the more likely it is to be true.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/17/politics/fact-check-donald-trump-jimmy-kimmel-al-pacino/index.html
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100% real.
hugo was that long ago?
damn
His last two films were huge O-fers.
Even worse!
The Wolf of Wall Street (2013) — 5 Oscar nominations, 0 wins.
The Silence (2016) — 1 nomination, 0 wins
The Irishman (2019) – 10 nominations, 0 wins
Killers of the Flower Moon – 10 nominations, 0 wins
No Scorsese movie has won an Oscar since Hugo won 5 mostly visual awards in 2011.
plus, I think the Academy is aware of over-maneuvering one’s position in the race. I bet there are a certain number of voters who resent her being moved to leading when it looked like she was going to steamroll through the awards season.
What’s the rule? It’s OK to want to win the Oscar, you just have to appear to not look overzealous. For someone like RDJ who has an entire industry backing him, he can get away with it. But Gladstone could not. Most didn’t even know her name until KIllers came out. She doesn’t get the same leeway even if it was some publicist from the Studio who made the decision. But the truth is, she had to go along with it. Doesn’t the actor themselves have to submit their names (or at least sign off)
I believe Sasha’s position is that she thinks the Academy are “hypocrites” for pretending to care about inclusivity, but then they never take the opportunity to act on their “virtue signaling.”
I have said on the podcast more than once that it’s probably not a good idea to bank on the Academy wanting “to make history” — because they simply never do.
I do know what you mean about Jeff Wells. He was disgusting all year long in his crude quasi-racist whining, every time Lily Gladstone won anything, claiming it was only because of “woke guilt” or whateverthefuck. He’s mentally unwell.
But Wells has always been a quasi-racist prick, many many years before “woke” entered the cultural lexicon.
Sasha is a Scorsese groupie though. He’s one of a few directors she idolizes more than she probably should come Oscar time and it clouds her judgment. He’s certainly one of the greats, but Oscar doesn’t seem that interested in giving him more than he already has. His last two films were huge O-fers. Funny that a fairly recent film of his, though, was Hugo which overperformed pretty much at every step. So maybe it’s not Scorsese that they are tired of, maybe they are just tired of traditional Scorsese.
I can’t copy paste that caption. Something about a hairy tongue? (How dare you!) ha.
You and Tom Ripley make me want to learn some Italian.
Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied at the PGA.
I offer this fact to support my long held belief that award winners often win by a scant handful of votes.
Because I’ve had to listen to too many people who claim that Best Picture winners win by huge margins.
That’s a strange simple-minded fantasy that rarely materializes in the real world.
hmmm. what makes you think those 2 movies tied?
The dynamics of the campaign are different every year
Michelle Yeoh didn’t show off in EEAAO and Chastain too busy buried in makeup as Tammy Faye to doff it.
To Sasha’s credit, she praised Gladstone and thought she would win on performance unlike certain friends of hers ranting on how her likely win was due to “woke culture” etc.
I remember Steve Martin’s joke about it when hosting “as Heaven forbid, we think this is a competition.”
I wish I could answer.
Yes, you see eye to eye with my own feelings. My friends I took with me on my second trip to see it. One of my friends, a boy from my class in economics, he covered his eyes for some of the sex. He likes girls well enough. He could not bear to watch the comedy sex. It was some of it too ugly for him, just as you say. Sex scenes that a man covers his eyes? That is not what the author says it is.
I am eaten alive with envy.
You fall in love with your own words, we all know this. LOL
You are all this —>
I miei migliori professori
Well, they’re different but not completely different. That’s why we can predict. Because we expect certain things about the race to hold true over different years.
I plan now to watch Women On the Verge of Nervous Breakdown finally today. To clear my head from everything I see here lately that has confused me.
have you seen yet, Nacho Vigalondo’s “Colossal” (2017), with Anne Hathaway, Jason Sudeikis, Dan Stevens and Tim Blake Nelson? I’d say it is the most underrated film of the century and my personal Best Picture/Director/Original Screenplay of that year. That’s a tragedy, that such an engaging, defying, original masterpiece is so unseen. To say anything about it, is to spoil part of the fun. My recommendation is to even avoid the trailers (even if they keep some of the film’s best secrets, hidden)
True true. And we can never know for certain how many men in the Academy get off on scat. I’m very sure the number is not zero.
I’ve said this before (mostly spoken to myself, silently, in my own head, because I already have quite enough to worry about in my life than to bicker about whether the sex is Poor Things is intended to induce arousal.)
But I would seriously worry about the mental heath of any male human that would be “turned on” by watching the total of 2 minutes of sex in Poor Things.
With a single fleeting exception, there is only one male partner that Bella beds who comes across as anything but a clumsy, crude, slovenly, oafish pig.
Nothing against pigs. Pigs are wonderful beings, smart and adorable. But it’s not hot to see a woman fucked by one.
As for the presumed variety of sex Bella had. What NC-17 cut of this movie did these people see? All I saw that Bella ever does is climb on top of the lazy grotesque men and bounce around on their weird little dicks.
With just one exception, all her male clients are the ugliest specimens of ogres, beasts, and gargoyles.
How fucked up in his depraved mind would an actual male moviegoer need to be in order to find that sexy to watch?
It’s a cinematic miracle that Yorgos and Emma made it hilarious instead of horrifying.
Besides, if a real man wants to see actual wild naughty sexy delicious sex, there are only about 20 million gorgeous women online from all around the world available to watch, for far less than the price of a movie ticket.
The single solitary attractive male partner Bella has is one who left her in awe of his handsome, lean, well-endowed sexual prowess — and, brilliantly, he was a priest.
One last thing: It’s one of the thousands of genius visual delights in Poor Things that the brothel appears to provide a grand gothic buttress to support the church right next door.
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Plus the ratings were higher, not lower
it’s almost…and sit down before I say this…it’s almost…this will blow your mind people…it’s almost as if every Oscar year is completely different than the previous one with completely different campaign dynamics.
McDormand did do brief full frontal in Nomadland, so maybe that’s why she won?
It’s particularly weird that she implies that “this is the way for actresses to appeal to Oscar voters”, which is not really true: the list of best actress winners in the past 10 or 15 years for who this would apply is extremely short. It feels like she’s just repeating an Oscar mantra from some other point in time (I feel like Tom O’Neil used to repeat this and the corresponding “slap the stud syndrome” in the early 2010s in a way that felt outdated even at that point). And even when this was more discussed, I wonder how much of the interest in this narrative was merely a veiled way of shaming the actresses involved and discrediting their Oscar wins and the performances for which they won because they had sex or were naked in those films.
Is it just me, or is someone here very weirdly obsessed with how much sex Emma Stone had in Poor Things?…
It was an amazing year.
Looking back over the most recent 10 or 15 years, true movie-lovers have been blessed with an incredible range of cinema riches — and every year, some of the very best of those movies never even make it Oscars at all.
(and so what? I would be depressed af if I thought my own taste and my own preferences had to line up with the Oscars.)
I sincerely pity anybody who tries to claim there are no writers and no directors who know how to make good movies anymore. What a grim, bitter, incurious life they must lead.
it’s odd because that year there were at least 5 films equally deserving of winning Best Picture: Parasite, 1917, Pain & Glory, The Irishman and Jojo Rabbit. And they nominated 4 of them for Best Picture!
Uh oh! A certain person whose name rhymes with “Masha Bone” will accuse you of having Trump Derangement Syndrome!
Josh kinda already outdid Saltburn in God’s Own Country when he put his entire arm into, well, I won’t say it.
Of course this is done on farms all the time, but still. As an actor he out Barry’d even Barry Keoghan.
I tried to say the same thing. yesterday, Ferdinand, but you’re approach is much more elegant.
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2024/04/14/the-holdovers-and-american-fiction-win-at-the-wga/#comment-6436855408
I will study your style so that someday I might be more succinct and less of a dick. (“someday,” but probably not someday soon.)
They never did. Correlation and order of occurrence does not imply causation, beware of confounders (in this case the massive one of “general industry preference”). Also, it’s funny how last year no one trusted BAFTA because they went 0/8 in the above the line categories at the Oscars and now SAG doesn’t matter “because their name isn’t BAFTA”
Editorial fact check:
This trump guy claims Kimmel “forgot to say the famous and mandatory line, “AND THE WINNER IS.””
In truth, the Oscars changed the wording a little while ago…
The last time that phrase was used officially was for the 60th Academy Awards in 1988, when “The Last Emperor” won for best picture.
“The wording was changed in 1989 to “And the Oscar goes to ….”
Because to speak about winners implies that all the other brilliant nominees are “losers”
I would imagine Trump has fragile tender feelings about being a loser.
Hey guys. I trash-talk Trump a lot. I feel bad.
In the interest of fairness, I’ll share a message that Trump wrote last night.
It’s wrong for me to paraphrase. Let’s hear him express himself in his own dignified and well-informed manner.
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I think I would prefer it this way. The predictability of how things play out can make the hike to Oscars fill long and loathsome.
The past few years I’ve been annoyed at how the awards shows have been spread out from January to March, instead of January and February. However, I’ve noticed that in some cases it makes some categories more unpredictable because of the time it gives people to consider things and such—or is that just a silly hunch? I don’t know, to me, having it spaced out and the groups giving awards just going their own way just makes things more interesting. I like the idea that what wins at SAG won’t influence Oscar—it shouldn’t. It should always be about performance, and we all know it never is, but having it be like this makes it more difficult for a narrative and more likely a true favorite to win.
My only true hope for the upcoming season of Oscars, is that we can put to bed the idea that BIG movies nominated bring people to watch the Oscars. They don’t care, and nothing will make them care, not even the host. Let’s try our best to remember that, because that convo this year was exhausting.
I just watched Challengers. What a riot, fun, film. Enjoyed it more than I was expecting. Josh O’Connor was the standout, though they were all great. The cinema was full and the audience was lapping every minute of it, oohing and aahring, giggling, you name it. Once it hits streaming, it will be the next Saltburn for Gen Z. And what a great score by Trent Reznor.
It could be somewhat simpler than that. (Or somewhat more complex, depending on how you might regard my own theory of “upsets”)
Have we not learned from political elections all our lives about the razor-thin margins that can lead to a slim victory?
Then we factor in the really obvious wild card:
How many international voters are members of the Producers Guild of America?
Now how many international voters are AMPAS members? (esp. after they sought diversity and recruited brilliant filmmakers from around the world.)
As for the razor-thin element — I recall in our own inhouse AD ballot that year, Parasite and 1917 were neck and neck. We all loved both those movies.
(whenever someone is skeptical when I say one 5 or 10 votes can be the difference in winning or losing an Oscar. I gently remind them that Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied. Then when they say: “Well they probably ‘rigged‘ that tie because …”, I tune them out, because I don’t waste time arguing with racist imbeciles.)
So the much larger faction of international voters in the Academy than exists in the PGA is (to me) the most obvious reason Parasite won.
(this by the way, is the reason MAGA wants to be sure that non-white people have more trouble voting — because they know it’s not just about how many people vote, it’s more about controlling what type of people can vote.)
And I don’t discount a tangential reason: Maybe the international filmmakers in the AMPAS got fuckin sick of hearing how, “Parasite can’t win Best Picture because it has it’s own little ghetto category.”
I agree that your belief is also a factor, SunnyD — there are certainly voters who just get bored with the same movie or filmmaker winning everything.
All I’m saying is that I think it’s ludicrous for anyone to say “The Academy shifted their opinion and they all wanted Parasite to win.”
That’s so dumb. It only takes 50% +1 of the Academy voters to choose Best Picture.
Dumb hunches are fun to imagine. But when I get serious about finding explanations, I like to rely on some basic 3rd math.
When the Academy throws an unexpected curve ball, it only take a handful of voters to tip the balance.
No.
McDormand produced Nomadland
Chastain produced Eyes of Tammy Faye
Stone produced Poor Things
Thus, three out of the last four Best Actress winners
SAG will have a major impact in the nomination phase. The Golden Globe ceremony (5 January) and the SAG nominations announcement (8 January) just as Oscar nomination voting begins (8 January) will pack a punch. (I wonder how the BAFTA nominations will figure into this.)
Michelle Yeoh produced EEAOO?
I think there gets to be a little backlash, like people see 1917 winning too often and they’re like, let’s do something different.
Which is why you might as well have them all vote at once so the backlash effect never takes effect
I discussed this with a friend:
https://sophomorecritic.blogspot.com/2024/03/movie-dialogue-poor-things.html
I’m not sure there’s a good definition of porn. There are sex scenes in films where they don’t show much that do more for me than “porn” videos. I don’t think “porn” videos are universally considered more effective at arousing the subject. I think the supreme court says “you know it when you see it” so I assume it’s stylistic and is it a good or bad thing? I’d say it’s ineffective most of the time for me.
That being said, I believe Poor Things was designed to be ugly sex, right?
Exactly. There was tension the last few years in Best Actress thanks to some splits and such.
I was curious from some older viewers about what the Weinstein era was like with the Oscars.
How unfair of an advantage did they have? Was their campaigning like other film’s campaigns? I thought Cider House Rules and Chicago are fantastic films actaully
Agree!
I’m more like why does SAG even need awards? Yes, a lot of oscar buzzers love more awards, but it kind of ruins Oscar night and it exhausts the talent to have all these precursors. The SAG is a union, they should have more important things to do
If we’re right, you’re going to see an avalanche of actresses putting on producers’ hats. It will help their potential Oscar campaigns as well as get them better parts
BTW, is it really such a bad thing if some of the guild awards are out of sync with the Oscar calendar?
One of the single biggest problems Oscar has isn’t culture war stuff, but that the results are utterly unsurprising because of all the guild precursors. Putting a sliver of unpredictability into Oscar would be a GOOD thing.
Zendaya VS Gaga. One of them will win Best Actress.
I’m not fully sold on its Oscar chances either – but it’s well made and got good enough reviews (75 MC) for a divisive film of this scale. If it makes decent money at BO then it might end up as the main A24 horse for the upcoming Oscar race.
I don’t think it’s gonna be an Oscar player at all except maybe in Sound or something.
Off topic:
I have recently seen Alex Garland’s Civil War (A24, 4.12.24) starring Kirsten Dunst in the leading role.
Overall Grade: B+ (83/100)
It’s a well made war/action flick with A-grade ensemble acting and timely subject matter. The screenplay didn’t reveal much but it didn’t bother me. I think the film effectively conveyed the director’s vision.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it joins the Oscar race in a number of categories including Best Director and Best Actress.
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I agree with you. I do not know why this is not accepted by everyone. What was the boring thing to me in the 2024 movie awards? The same supporting actress, the same supporting actor won 100 times. I like them. But in my gut I was full of them. Qualcosa di troppo.
Troppo di qualsiasi cosa fa ammalare. The sick feeling of excess. More variety is more fun is more interesting too.
I still never saw Holdovers. tbh, I saw enough of that woman for a lifetime already, with her 100 awards.
This is a good sign for the future Oscars 2025. Very smart for you to think of it.
I disagree that any Award actually influents the Oscar beyond the speech of the winner and the reaction of those who lost. Ke Huy Quan became unstoppable because of the iterations of the same speech he made throughout the Awards season (I think he only lost BAFTA and that was mostly because Brits tend to vote British / Irish rather than foreign)… but no AMPAS members would think, “Oh, I have to vote for Quan because he’s sweeping so he should be the only logical outcome!”, more on the contrary, if he would have appeared as anything but humble and genuinely surprised of his comeback, he would have lost the Oscar. All throughout the season, I had the sensation that the whole EEAAO Oscar sweep was built over the shoulder of Quan’s narrative, which made him a clear option to win Supporting Actor (excellent, multilayered and multifaceted performance that was the heart and soul and moral/ethical center of the film, plus his personal background that generated both complete empathy and a sense of nostalgia that his marketing team exploited to perfection, specially at the Loki Season 2 panel and the reunion with Harrison Ford which became viral… I think that was the turning point in which Quan was unavoidable and unbeatable and EEAAO’s marketing team started building over that… with the collateral consequence that the nostalgia factor also helped Jamie Lee Curtis to win SAG and Oscar as well)
Good. Every awards body should do their own thing.
Three of the last four Best Actress winners produced the films they won for. How many perceived actress contenders fit that bill in this year’s field. Zendaya comes to mind (and it won’t hurt her case that Dune II will get a lot of eyeballs from AMPAS). The AFTRA part of SAG-AFTRA kind of muddies SAG as a one to one precursor. But PGA on the other hand.
Edit: Gaga is a producer on the Joker sequel as well.