Tony Award Nomination Predictions! Why Not!

Last year was the first time that I predicted the Tony Award nominations, and I did…all right. In March of last year, I saw eventual Best Musical winner, Kimberly Akimbo, as well as revivals contenders Parade and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street. I haven’t made it back to Broadway since that, so we are flying blind this time, people! Let’s just dive right in!

Best Musical
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs

Watch out for: Water for Elephants, Here Lies Love, Lempicka

There are a whopping 15 musicals eligible for this category, the most since 2014 where 12 musicals duked it out. How many surprises might there be?

Best Play
Jaja’s African Hair Play
Mary Jane
Mother Play
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic

Watch out for: The Shark is Broken, Patriots

Best Revival of a Musical
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Gutenberg! The Musical!
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who’s Tommy

Watch out for: The Wiz

After receiving 7 Olivier Awards in the West End, it was a bit surprising how mixed the reaction was to Cabaret. Does it stumble in other categories? Audiences had fun with Andrew Rannells and Josh reuniting. Merrily is poised to be the darling of the night.

Best Revival of a Play
Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious

There are only 2 other revivals this season–Doubt and Uncle Vanya. Can one of them surprise and swap in?

Best Actress in a Musical 
Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Shaina Taub, Suffs

Watch out for: Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook

Best Actor in a Musical
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Who’s Tommy
Brian d’Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Chip Zien, Harmony

Watch out for: Jeremy Jordan, The Great Gatsby, Andrew Rannells, Gutenberg!

Best Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt

Watch out for: Betsy Aidem, Prayer for the French Republic

Best Actor in a Play
Steve Carell, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious
Liev Schreiber, Doubt
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

Watch out for: Erick McCormack, The Cottage, William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya, Paul Sparks, Grey House

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Shoshana Bean, Hell’s Kitchen
Jenn Colella, Suffs
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Beuwirth, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot

Watch out for: Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen, Nikki M. James, Suffs

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Paul Alexander Nolan, Water for Elephants
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Conrad Ricamora, Here Lies Love
Steven Skybell, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Ricky Ubeda, Illinoise

Watch out for: Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell’s Kitchen

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic
Celia Kenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

Watch out for: Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic, Lucy DeVito, I Feel That

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli, An Enemy of the People
Will Keen, Patriots
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

Watch out for: Alfred Molina, Uncle Vanya, Jim Parsons, Mother Play

Best Book of a Musical
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Lempicka
The Outsiders
Suffs

Watch out for: Here Lies Love, Illinoise

Best Direction of a Musical
Rebecca Frecknali, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Greif, Hell’s Kitchen
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Alex Timbers, Here Lies Love

Watch out for: Leigh Silverman, Suffs

Best Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
Sam Gold, An Enemy of the People
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate

Watch out for: Whitney White, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding, Tina Landau, Mother Play

Best Original Score
Days of Wine and Roses
Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Suffs
Stereophonic

Watch out for: The Notebook, Lempicka

I probably shouldn’t be including Stereophonic with such a robust possibility of musicals, but, hey…why not?

Best Choreography
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Illinoise
The Outsiders
The Who’s Tommy
The Wiz

Watch out for: Hell’s Kitchen