Cannes did not used to influence the Oscar race much. That changed in 2019 when Parasite won the Palme d’or and then the Oscar, becoming the first film since Marty to do so. Since then, we’ve seen critics darlings emerge from the international fest and be cradled gently like an egg on through Oscar season. Last year, we saw The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall both win big at Cannes and then win at least one Oscar. What was most surprising was that both films landed in the Producers Guild and Oscar Best Picture lineup. That never happened before.
Things have obviously changed and changed dramatically. This would be partly due to new members the Academy invited in after the #oscarssowhite scandal and the Green Book apocalypse. Most of the new members are international, like the Golden Globes and the BAFTA.
But that doesn’t explain all of it. Why the Producers Guild, for instance? I think it has less to do with international tastes and more to do with the bottleneck of Hollywood of late and why the best movies aren’t being made here. Yes, it’s true that changing tastes among the younger generations have shifted what kinds of movies Oscar voters like (as opposed to what audiences like, and these are not the same things).
Hollywood is facing a crisis, even if no one will admit it, not in the media, not anywhere. An ongoing climate of fear prevents them from hiring good storytellers or telling good stories, problems they don’t have in other countries, not like here. There is very little courage left because activists have them by the balls (there is no other way to say it) and thus, everything Hollywood releases feels like a hostage video, even the major blockbusters. The frozen smiles, ignoring the elephant in the room, truth is on vacation, along with satire and comedy.
This mirrors exactly what happened in the 1950s when “foreign films” drew audiences because they were more interesting and daring than the overly safe, dogmatic films Hollywood was churning out. The entire thing has reversed itself – Left is Right, Right is Left, etc.
At the moment, the movies that did well at Cannes are probably going to be niche movies some people will see. They will do very well in the indie awards race – the Gothams, the Spirits, the LA Film Critics, etc. But they won’t make much of an impact on people beyond the tiny bubble the film awards have become.
Zone of Interest was the one movie that did seem to make it out of the bubble ever so briefly, until it became a pawn in the debate over Israel and Palestine.
Three movies, as far as I can tell, have landed among the critics. The first has to be Sean Baker’s Anora, which has been praised as the best film at the festival. Cannes, like every other film festival, is its own event, so every movie that plays there is compared against everything else. Being seen last can sometimes be an advantage and that appears to be the case with Anora.
Anora looks to be a contender, possibly, for Picture, Director and Actress for Mikey Madison (last seen as Sexy Sadie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood).
You can check out the reviews at Rotten Tomatoes where it enjoys a 100% score, making it the main contender for the Palme d’or. However, there is a problem for them in that there are a lot of women on the jury, led by Greta Gerwig, with Lily Gladstone. Will they go for a movie directed by a male? They might, if it’s good enough. They might also want to do what they did last year and split the difference, making sure the woman wins something.
In that case, they will likely want to award the film that was second most taked about, Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance, what the critics call “body horror.” That’s got 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and probably has a Best Actress nomination for Demi Moore, and a supporting nod for Margaret Qualley.
And then there is Emilia Perez, a film by Jaques Audiard about a mobster who longs to become a woman. That was the buzzy film before these two landed and wiped it off the map, but it still might factor in somewhere.
But Sean Baker’s new film might test this theory as being an American-made film at Cannes that blows the lid off the joint. Only one of them comes from this country and that’s the one that might — might — win the Palme d’or – Sean Baker’s Anora.
Another I’ve heard buzzed about is Armond, starring Renate Reinsve, directed by Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel. But the critics didn’t do handstands over it completely so one never knows where it lands. The people covering the films at Cannes have a very specific kind of taste. It’s a little harder to suss out what is legit enthusiasm and what is “what happens at Cannes stays at Cannes.”
Over at Indiewire, they’re putting Anora all the way at #3, which is kind of strange but okay. Here is their list:
1. “Emilia Pérez”
2. “Bird”
3. “Anora”
4. “The Substance”
5. “Kinds of Kindness”
6. “Caught by the Tides”
7. “Megalopolis”
8. “Grand Tour”
9. “Limonov: The Ballad”
10. “Parthenope”
11. “The Shrouds”
12. “Oh, Canada”
13. “The Girl with the Needle”
14. “Three Kilometers to the End of the World”
15. “Marcello Mio”
16. “The Apprentice”
17. “Wild Diamond”
Emilia Perez is probably among the most ambitious, being a musical and all. Its director is French, so there’s that. And it features a prominent transgender character and that has to count for something.
The ongoing obsession/fascination with the imaginary version of Trump the Left believes exists is immortalized in The Apprentice, which will make anyone who is not inside the fear bunker of the Left laugh loudly, as with the movie Civil War. You can’t really tell stories about people you don’t know, especially not now. If Civil War was LARPing for the ladies of The View, The Apprentice feels like LARPing for Jimmy Kimmel and Bill Maher – or as I like to call it, dog humping leg emoji.
I am not looking forward to the fanaticism and Trump obsession sure to fuel movies for the next 20 years. Gee, you folks ought to get out more.
My dreams of Kevin Costner saving Hollywood were shattered by a bucket of elitist ice water poured all of it. Don’t worry, critics, your cred is still intact.
I am not predicting anything for the Palme. We’ll leave it our beloved Zhuo-Ning Su who is on the ground and seeing movies but I thought I would offer a little Oscar talk.