2025 Oscar Predictions – The Oscars in a Time of Political Crisis

I try really hard not to “get political” on this site, although I have in the past. Too much by now. Ultimately, I would love for there to be no political divide and for things to be “back to normal.” But they’re never going to be. The internet and social media has changed the game for the human race, for politics and for the Oscars. There’s no going back. There is only survival.

But be that as it may, things have taken a dramatic turn ever since Joe Biden debated Donald Trump and was exposed as far more cognitively impaired than anyone thought. Why didn’t they think that? Because his condition was shielded from the American public by the Democrats in power and by the legacy press that has worked more or less as state propaganda for the Democrats since 2016.

The Biden presidency, and the modern-day Left in general, have reminded me of Woody Allen’s Sleeper.

Sleeper is about a two-tiered society much like what we’ve built for ourselves, thanks to the internet. I got online in 1994 and was here way before social media. I should have known the basics about human beings. We build tribes and we fight wars. We fight wars largely over territory. Right now, the war is over the new territory online – who will control it? What will the rules be? Before Trump, the Left had near-complete dominance of the new America online. That’s partly why he’s such a big threat.

But it’s also the idea that came upon the Left only in the past decade, that there are “good” people and “bad” people and only the “good” people” are allowed inside. That seems to be what Sleeper (or 1984 if you prefer) is about. The best scene is when Diane Keaton – a famous poet – reads her bad poem. She can’t write because she’s cut off from the basic reality of everyday life.

In Sleeper, the underground are Marxists or socialists. But the reverse is true. The power in this country are closer to that ideology that what might be the “underground” now.

In the film, Woody Allen’s character kidnaps Diane Keaton and deprograms her just by speaking the truth. She’s been living with a carefully managed reality for so long, basic truths are shocking. Then, Woody Allen’s character is taken and brainwashed, and Diane Keaton must rescue him and deprogram him. It’s a silly film meant for laughs but I’ve never seen anything, apart of 1984, that reminds me of what has become of so much of our culture now. There are exceptions. Every so often, something great manages to slip through even with the strident rules and mind-numbing conformity of thought.

The best thing that could happen to the Left and to the Democrats is a Trump win. It would pierce the ongoing mass hysteria (they will see that democracy didn’t, in fact end, and Project 25 isn’t the law of the land as they feared it would be). It would give the Democrats a chance to find new blood and a new direction. And it would give Hollywood a chance to thaw out from their Great War against half the country. If the Democrats prevail, they postpone the collapse. What they’ve built is not sustainable. They can’t sell only fear and expect to remain in power for long.

What this country needs is to end the Cold Civil War, to make friends, to see one another as just people again. I don’t know if that’s possible in the 1984-like reality of right now, but I hope it one day will be.

If i’m right and we are in the midst of a pendulum swing, we might see that reflected in the Oscar picks, especially Best Picture. Wouldn’t it be funny if Gladiator 2 won?

As of now, the Oscars still very much exist inside the bubble. They have had one singular obsession for almost ten years – their named enemy, Donald Trump. They lost their minds trying to destroy him. Not only haven’t they been able to destroy him, but they’ve destroyed themselves in the process.  And yet, as I write this, I have no idea how the election will play out. We don’t know if Biden will still be on the ticket or how it will go.

But, if it goes the way it looks like it will, as of today, that’s a landslide win for Trump. That means he’ll be sworn in in January, right in the middle of Oscar voting. In that case, we might see the kind of deep impact we saw in 2016.

Let’s go over it again:

La La Land was deemed “racist” and lost to Moonlight.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was also deemed “racist,” and The Shape of Water won.
Green Book was like the second Trump win all over again. There was massive upheaval in the Oscar race. Fury raged for weeks and months. The Oscars have never been the same. Thus began the Great White Man Panic, which finally ended last year when Christopher Nolan won for Oppenheimer.

Already, there are two Trump-related films in the Oscar race this year: Alex Garland’s Civil War, which I thought came from entirely inside the bubble of the Left, and The Apprentice. Both of these films resonate with film critics, and several pundits are already predicting the film for multiple nominations, including Best Actor.

I am not sure, right now, how this political drama is going to play out. I do wish the Left would calm down and stop saying we’re about to lose our “democracy” with, you know, democracy.

Depending on how things turn out, the films in the race will take on a different kind of resonance, like La La Land vs. Moonlight. I could see, for instance, the movie Joker: Folie a Deux resonating. But I could also see Sing Sing resonating for different reasons.

Clayton Davis put out his Oscar predictions, which I found refreshing. They aren’t status quo at all.  Here is how he sees Best Picture:

My only quibble is that Inside Out 2 is probably the animated film that will land in the top ten if any will. The box office is in dire straights. All save one:

Meanwhile, over at Gold Derby’s Youtube, we have Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen spitballing:

Timestamps: Intro and 2024 so far
(0:00)
Best Picture (8:11)
Best Director (24:38)
Best Actor (38:27)
Best Actress  (46:10)
Best Supporting Actor (56:45)
Best Supporting Actress (1:07:22)
Best Adapted Screenplay (1:12:30)
Best Original Screenplay (1:14:07)
Other thoughts (1:16:05)

I like where they’re going with this, especially Christopher Rosen’s choice of Wicked. They discuss Wicked being released at the same time as Gladiator 2. Maybe that will ignite the box office as Barbenheimer did. You never know. I can sort of see that working out—hyper-masculine vs. hyper-feminine. It works.

The Film Drunk put out July Oscar predictions on Youtube also, with Sing Sing at the top:

Here are this week’s sure to be useless predictions.

Best Picture
Sing Sing
Gladiator II
Joker: Folie a Deux
Wicked
Anora
Blitz
Emelia Perez
Conclave
Dune 2
Inside Out 2

Alts
Hard Truths
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Queer
The Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Todd Phillips, Joker Folie a Deux
Ridley Scott, Gladiator 2
Jaques Audiard, Emelia Perez

Alts
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Actor
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux
Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II (is he lead?) or Paul Mescal
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Alt. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez (unless supporting)
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Alts
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

That’s about it for now. Hopefully we’ll have some intel of where this is all going soon.