2025 Oscar Predictions: Let the Downsizing Begin

Today came the news from CNN that Paramount is downsizing, laying off 15% of its staff.

Yesterday, Jeff Sneider posted on his site that Apple was now backing off a theatrical release for the film Wolfs, starring George Clooney and Brad Pitt:

Yesterday, Deadline announced that Apple would pivot on Wolfs, the George Clooney–Brad Pitt movie that had been slated to open in wide release on Sept. 20, but will now open only in select theaters before streaming on Apple TV+ the following week on Sept. 27.

Of course, all of this would come after its premiere at the Venice Film Festival.

A source told Sneider that, “Apple is done with wide theatrical releases for all of its movies outside of the Brad Pitt movie F1, which is the only guaranteed wide release moving forward because one was baked into the deal given its eye-popping expense.”

Deadline is also keeping track of the layoffs so far in 2024:

Did Apple do the right thing pulling Wolfs? Yes, I personally think they did. The last thing anyone needs is to be reminded that George Clooney and Brad Pitt can’t open a movie. Why would they want to invite that level of bad press? Might it make money? I mean, sure. But look at the box office this year. It’s a wasteland compared to previous years. To illustrate what I’m talking about, here is the annual box office takes from Box Office Mojo going back to 2000:

Of course, the strike meant fewer movies made and fewer movies released. We will see the damage done once the year is over. Some big movies might raise the total a bit, like Gladiator II, Joker Folie a Deux, and Wicked. But as you can probably conclude without too much thought, the same thing that happened to Broadway has more or less happened to the movies. The only way to bring people in is if they trust the brand you’re selling. In other words, it is a remake, a sequel, a film based on a brand or a toy or whatever.

I think Big Hollywood will default back, as it did with the new Wolverine movie. They will go back to giving men the testosterone hit they need to make billions for the industry of unwatchable franchise movies. Where does Niche Hollywood go from here?

I’m guessing that it won’t change much in the coming years. There is no need to change since box office and the Oscars do not matter anymore. Maybe next year we’ll get some big movies back in the race. Maybe even this year. Who knows.

Let’s look at some predictions.

Paul Sheehan at Gold Derby put out his list for Best Picture:

Anora (Neon)
Blitz (Apple)
Conclave (Focus)
Dune Part Two (WB)
Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
Gladiator II (Paramount)
Here (Sony)
Joker Folie a Deux (WB)
Nickel Boys (Amazon/MGM)
Nightbitch (Searchlight)
Sing Sing (A24)
Wicked (Universal)

This is a very studio-friendly list, which could be smart, vis-à-vis advertising dollars.  I’m just not sure that will pan out, what with all the thousands of new members who are more BAFTA/Cannes-friendly than the American studio system. But if it went that way, it would certainly be better for the American film industry.

Every week I like to give a shout out to a newbie. I may have already posted these guys on this site but you know, the old brain isn’t working as well as it used to and I’m too lazy to look it up. But I like these guys, whoever they are. Might be a fun watch.

There is a heavy Kieran Culkin vibe at the moment after it was announced that Culkin will star as RICKY ROMA in Glengarry Glen Ross. I’m so excited for that — on Broadway, by the way. Says the New York Times (and note the irritating last paragraph):

The 2025 revival is being produced by Jeffrey Richards, who has worked on every previous Broadway production of “Glengarry” and who often produces Mamet’s work on Broadway, as well as by Rebecca Gold, a frequent Richards collaborator. In 2018, Richards and Gold had plans to stage an all-female production of “Glengarry,” and in 2019, Patti LuPone said she was slated to star, but that production never happened.

Mamet has become a polarizing figure in recent decades — his later plays have not been well-received, and his rightward political turn has alienated some onetime fans. But his early plays remain admired; most recently, “American Buffalo” was revived on Broadway in 2022, and Jesse Green, the chief theater critic for The New York Times, although critical of Mamet, called the production “electric.”

One way to fix Hollywood and fix it now is to dump this thoughtcrime bullshit. Just get over it already. It doesn’t matter if David Mamet, one of the greatest writers who ever lived, is not on board with your groupthink.  What matters is that he wrote Glengarry Glen Ross.

Barring some collective mass hysteria and insane freak-out, the revival should build buzz around Culkin, who already has it anyway and is about to be nominated, very likely, for A Real Pain.

You might notice Here popping up on lists, as I am. I think that’s because the buzz coming out of test screenings, written about in this column by Jordan Ruimy:

Last year, Roth had mentioned to me, a few times, how proud he was about this film. Based on the test reactions, he might be right. Who knows. According to my source, “Here” is one of the highest-scoring films in Sony’s history. It scored a 95 in the top two boxes and an “87 definite recommend”. They’re so confident about this one that they’re positioning it for Oscars this fall.

“Here” is based on Richard McGuire’s graphic novel and covers the events of a single room and its inhabitants spanning from the past to well into the future. Here’s a test reaction that was sent over to me, a few months back …

It’s an ambitious story, just one single perspective with fade ins/fade outs to change the time into the future or past and all about a single space of a living room in one house. Tom Hanks and Robin Wright are de-aged (surprisingly flawless for something still in production) and Hanks is as good and reliable as always. Zemeckis gives all the heavy and emotional moments to Wright here and she delivers a fantastic performance. Paul Bettany and Kelly Reilly are also really good, and both can totally steal a supporting actor nom. This feels like a Best Picture contender for me. It feels like a spiritual cousin to “Forrest Gump” with all the hopping through time and recounting important historical events of everyone who lives through this space and it’s definitely in the same home of films that Hanks used to make in the 90’s and stuff like “Big Fish” and “Life of Pi”; It’s a massive visual marvel.

In “Here,” Zemeckis is, again, attempting to be at the forefront of bleeding-edge technology as the film aims to use deepfake VFX to de-age actors with the help of effects studio Metaphysic. The technology will use “high-resolution photorealistic faceswaps and de-aging effects on top of actors’ performances live and in real-time without the need for further compositing or VFX work.”

I’m sure it will be interesting. I’m not sure about the de-aging stuff, which doesn’t really work in movies. But maybe it will in this one. Who knows. Given that this is not exactly a strong year, there is no harm in predicting it this early.

One of the central themes this year continues to be Boomers’ Last Stand or Last Look Back. They’re saying goodbye after having helped usher in, what I believe to be, the best era of American film. I don’t know if any other generation can touch them, at least not in my lifetime. Whatever the future holds it will never be like it was. It will never be Godfather good or Taxi Driver good or Network good. That would require a system that still believed in producing subversive, daring, truthful films.

What we get now are aspirational. Almost all of them are. They reflect the mood of the people who make movies and at the moment, those people belong to the side with all of the power – cultural, economic, political. Back in the 1970s, the boomers were breaking free from the same sort of alignment of power on the Conservative side. That is why they were the counter culture. Now, they are THE culture. They can’t criticize themselves, after all.

Here is a sentimental look back on the lifespan of the Boomer.
A Complete Unknown – a pivotal moment in the life of your average Boomer.
Megalopolis – a super nova Boomer-splosion
Saturday Night – when the Boomers were cool and launched Saturday Night Live

All of these movies would play well with what we call the “Old Academy,” before they ushered in the new members. They were mostly boomers. They probably still are but it’s not clear how strong their vote will be.

Predictions

Best Picture
Conclave
Gladiator II
Sing Sing
Joker Folie a Deux
Dune: Part Two
Anora
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Wicked
A Complete Unknown

Alts:
Blitz
Here
The Room Next Door
A Real Pain
Hard Truths
Saturday Night
Queer

Best Director
Edward Berger, Conclave
Todd Phillips, Joker Folie a Deux
Sean Baker, Anora
Denis Villenueve, Dune 2
Jaques Audiard, Emelia Perez

Alts. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Best Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie A Deux
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Alts: Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Robin Wright, Here

Best Actor
Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Alts.
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Tom Hanks, Here
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Supporting Actress
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Elle Fanning, a Complete Unknown
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Joker Folie a Deux
The Piano Lesson

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Hard Truths
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain

And that, as they say, is that.