2025 Oscar Predictions: A Race without a Frontrunner…

The odd thing about this year’s Oscar race is that there is no official frontrunner. Usually by this time of year, one film emerges and must fend off challenges from competing films. But not this year. Did that change after what we’ve seen so far in Telluride and Venice? Not really. It does seem to be a cliffhanger and probably won’t be known until after the November election.

The reason for that is we don’t know where the consensus will take us. We can’t know the mood of Hollywood. Either they will be elated and feel as though they’ve won their (imaginary) war against the second Confederacy and Hitler, or everything comes crashing down like a house of cards. Either outcome could produce a different kind of Best Picture winner. It’s just that we are hovering in the in-between right now.

Then again, The Brutalist is getting the kinds of raves out of Venice that might drive it toward a Best Picture win. Driven by strong performances, check. Deep themes that resonate through the generations check. Reflects the general ethos of the Left right now (at a minimum), check. Epic, check. Can it become a general consensus pick or is it too cerebral for that? Either way, it’s hard to ignore:

best performances in Babygirl and that The Brutalist is one of best and most important films of the year. Take The Times’ Kevin Maher’s five star review:

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He writes:

Seven years in the making and three-and-a-half hours in the watching (including a 15-minute intermission), this majestic historical epic starring Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones is, immediately, the film to beat for the big Venice prizes (and indeed next year’s Oscar statuettes). The movie’s actual subject is, according to its director and co-writer Brady Corbet, “virtual history”. He means that the tale of a Hungarian-born Bauhaus-educated Jewish architect called Laszlo Toth, who flees war-ravaged Europe in 1947 for a chance to sample the American dream, is entirely fictional. It looks and feels like a regal cousin of The Pianist, but it is instead an eerie testimonial to mid-20th century talent unlived, suppressed, or denied by conflict.

The film, classicist to the core, opens with a brief musical overture (later matched by the mid-movie intermission, complete with a countdown clock for anxious time-watching audiences), and a sequence picturing Brody’s Toth on a chaotic below-decks trip to the US. Once stateside, he finds patronage in Guy Pearce’s imperious multi-millionaire dilettante Harrison Lee Van Buren, who commissions the construction of a sprawling hilltop institute that will both commemorate his recently departed mother and celebrate his own greatness.

And as if that wasn’t praise-worthy enough:

There are alluring shades here of previous cinematic standouts, including Citizen Kane (think of Charles Foster’s Xanadu) and the great works of Herzog, especially Fitzcarraldo (Kinski’s steamship is akin to Van Buren’s institute). The building eventually becomes a source of madness for Toth, who obsesses over every detail and, together with his wife Erzsebet (Jones), channels the trauma of their experiences in Buchenwald into every internal geometric line and bunker-like super-structure.

Our very own Zhuo-Ning Su says, “Nothing could have prepared us for The Brutalist, a film so layered in meaning, staggering in craftsmanship and — despite its length and book-like structure — so magically uncluttered, you feel like you’re watching a classic.”

The film has just one negative review so far on Rotten Tomatoes.

At the very least, we have a strong contender is all of the major categories. There is still a way to go, and it is a film that’s over three hours long. That means to run the gauntlet it has to be seen by thousands upon thousands of industry voters.

Joker: Folie a Deux still has to play at Venice for the full assessment of that festival before we move on to Toronto and New York.

Meanwhile, here at the Telluride Film Festival, Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night played like gangbusters, as did Conclave and A Real Pain. They join the already buzzed Anora, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, and Nickel Boys.

We know from the past that it’s rare for more than three Telluride titles to make the cut. In 2016 there were four. Let’s go through the list, starting back in 2009 when the Academy expanded its ballot.

2009 Best Picture nominees from Telluride:
An Education

2010
The King’s Speech (which won Best Picture)

2011
The Artist (which won Best Picture)
The Descendents

2012
Amour
Argo (played as a TBA and won Best Picture

2013
Gravity
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave (played as a surprise screening, won Best Picture)

2014
Birdman (won Best Picture)
The Imitation Game

2015
Spotlight (won Best Picture)

2016
Arrival
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight (won Best Picture)

2017
Darkest Hour
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water

2018
The Favourite
Roma

2019
Ford v. Ferrari
Marriage Story
Parasite

2020
No festival

2021
Belfast
The Power of the Dog

2022
TAR
Women Talking

2023
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Telluride has an impressive track record, or at least it did before COVID, of playing the inevitable Best Picture winner. Things changed dramatically after 2020 in every way, especially in the film industry. Not just because of COVID but the “great awokening” changed how every film in Hollywood is made. Every single film must now be inclusive of some marginalized group.

Years from now, this era of the film will be easily recognizable for that reason. It works sometimes where you need to notice the nervous people behind the scenes, ensuring all are in compliance. But sometimes, it is glaringly obvious and embarrassing for all involved. Either way, things changed in the same way the Hays Code changed Hollywood.

Some of this is depicted in Saturday Night with Standards and Practices going through every potentially offensive word of phrase, “what is golden showers?’ After the Hays Code and up through the 1970s and 1980s, it was Christians who were potentially offended. Now, Christians are depicted as the bad guys and the people who can’t be offended are the progressives on the Left.

Why does that matter to Oscar predictions? Because we are still under the code, even for films that seem to be more universal narratives that anyone can see – like A Real Pain, Conclave, and Saturday Night.

Hollywood was so white and so heterosexual for so long that there will never be a time, at least not in the next 20 years, that art won’t be under pressure to prove they aren’t ever “going back” to the old days. Everyone has to understand it, accept it, and deal with it, per the directive.

This isn’t a problem inside the world of the film industry, certainly not here in the mountains of Colorado where everyone is in lockstep and those who aren’t can’t say so out loud.

There is still a desire within the industry to make change. And that passion will continue to drive more and more contenders into the Oscar race. They will want to have all groups represented. This year will be the year for the transgender actor to make history, per Kyle Buchanan in the New York Times:

Emilia Perez might be the film that reflects 2024 more than any other in almost every way imaginable. You might call it “peak woke,” but that might feel insulting to some. Many critics and audiences have felt deeply moved by the film, like our great friend Scott Mantz:

Emilia Perez seems an easy call for, say, the SAG ensemble and honestly, this could be the “standing ovation” movie. We are always looking for that one movie that will cause the actors to leap to their feet (Parasite, CODA) and this probably it.

Emilia Perez will drive the passion vote, like Anora will, like A real Pain will.  Those seem like fairly easy bets to predict for Best Picture.

Both Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie have earned spots on the Best Actress list out of Venice. Danielle Deadwyler is a strong pick for Supporting Actress out of Telluride.

Here is The Contending‘s Clarence Moye on Angelina Jolie and the performance of the year:

Last year, after Telluride, my Best Picture predictions looked like this:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Barbie
The Holdovers
Maestro
The Color Purple
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
The Killer
Alts: Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers, Air, Saltburn, Rustin, The Boys in the Boat

The only film not on my radar was American Fiction. 

This is a whole different kind of year, though. We don’t have a “frontrunner” or any challenger to the top slot. That consensus has not yet emerged. Film Twitter is all over the place too. Some say Sing Sing. Some say Anora. Some will say The Brutalist. Eventually, though, there will be a consensus and a frontrunner.

Here are my new predictions (I’ve been “benched” at Gold Derby on account of my bad tweets and the Hollywood Reporter hit piece, so you can only get them here for now).

Best Picture
Conclave
The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
Saturday Night
Gladiator II (not yet seen)
Joker Folie a Deux (not yet seen)
Emilia Pérez
Queer
Dune 2

Alts: Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, Inside Out 2, Wicked, The Room Next Door.

Best Director
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Sean Baker, Anora
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Todd Phillips, Joker Folie a Deux
Alt. Ridley Scott, Gladiator; Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux

Alts: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Paul Mescal, Gladiator II; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Alts: Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Alts: Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
Anora
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
Alt. Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Joker Folie a Deux
Nickel Boys

Editing
Conclave
The Brutalist
Saturday Night
Gladiator II
Anora

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune 2
Conclave
Gladiator II
Joker Folie a Deux
Alts: Anora, Saturday Night

Production Design
The Brutalist
Dune 2
Conclave
Gladiator II
Joker Folie a Deux
Alts: Saturday Night, Wicked

Costumes
Joker Folie a Deux
The Brutalist
Wicked
Maria
Gladiator II
Alts: Conclave, Blitz, Nosferatu, Saturday Night

Original Score
Conclave
The Brutalist
Queer
Joker Folie a Deux
Dune 2
Alts: Challengers, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Inside Out 2

And that’s it for me, dear readers.