2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress is a Barn Burner

To my mind, the two strongest performances for the Best Actress win are Mikey Madison in Anora and Angelina Jolie in Maria. But that doesn’t mean that will be how it all turns out. It’s just that those are the two strongest performances after Telluride and Venice.

Madison, I think, has a slight edge over Jolie because the film itself is such a strong contender, having won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. We’re overdue for analyzing the Best Actress to Best Picture relationship. For years, it was non-existent. But things changed over time. The industry changed. They made an effort to push more films by and about women, and that has had an impact on the Oscar race.

But let’s look at the relationship between Best Actress winners and Best Picture starting in 2000.

2000-Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich*
2001-Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
2002-Nicole Kidman, The Hours*
2003-Charlize Theron, Monster
2004-Hillary Swank, Million Dollar Baby+
2005-Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2006-Helen Mirren, The Queen*
2007-Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2008-Kate Winslet, The Reader*
Best Picture ballot expands
2009-Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side*
2010-Natalie Portman, Black Swan*
2011-Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012-Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
2013-Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014-Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015-Brie Larson, Room*
2016-Emma Stone, La La Land*
2017-Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2018-Olivia Colman, The Favourite*
2019-Renee Zellweger, Judy
2020-Frances McDormand, Nomadland+
2021-Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2022-Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once+
2023-Emma Stone, Poor Things*

3/23 times the Best Actress winner was in a Best Picture winner.
12/23 times the Best Actress winner was in a Best Picture nominee.

In that same time, the Best Actress to Best Picture ratio went like this:

2000-2/5
2001-2/5
2002-2/5
2003-0/5
2004-1/5
2005-0/5
2006-1/5
2007-1/5
2008-1/5
Expanded ballot
2009-3/10
2010-3/10
2011-1/9
2012-4/9
2013-3/9
2014-1/8
2015-2/8
2016-1/9
2017-5/9
2018-3/8
2019-2/9
2020-2/8
2021-0/10
2022-3/10
2023-4/10

The take-away is that there are more films in the Best Picture race with a Best Actress contender. But, of course, we know it’s always been true that more films nominated for Best Picture have a Best Actor contender in them. But that is neither here nor there for today.

The key point here is that Anora has more Best Picture heat than Maria at the moment. Of the contenders for Best Actress now that are “in the conversation,” these are the films that also have Best Picture heat:

Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Tilda Swinton and/or Julianne Moore for The Room Next Door

The rest of them are not, at least at the moment per “the discourse” coming in with Best Picture heat.

Clayton Davis at Variety predicts:

Angelina Jolie ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Erik Anderson of AwardsWatch predicts (for August, not yet September):

1. Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (TBA)
3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
4. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON)
5. Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
7. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24)
8. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)
9. Salma Hayek – Without Blood (Fremantle)
10. Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)

Unless things change, or some other film becomes a strong Best Picture contender, we’re looking at a year with 2 or 3 of the Best Actress nominees coming from the Best Picture race. And, as you can see from the list above, having a Best Picture nomination helps. It’s not everything, but it helps.

The only way an actress can win without a Best Picture nomination is if they are very much overdue and their performance is unequivocal. That might be Angelina Jolie, but it might not be. Maria is a Netflix movie, which means Jolie competes with Karla Sofia Gascon’s history-making nomination in Emilia Perez. That makes it slightly harder for Jolie to run the table since Gascon will get a lot of votes just for making history alone, and Emilia Perez is coming in with Best Picture heat. Of the two, I would predict Perez. But I’m leaning toward Mikey Madison in Anora for the win, at least until I see Hard Truths. Nicole Kidman is also coming on strong in Baby Girl, but this isn’t a film that has Best Picture heat, at least not as far as I can tell.

And then there is Cynthia Erivo and Wicked. Universal would have to play their cards right to build the necessary prestige to get Wicked in for Best Picture and multiple nominations. Hard to say right now, as there is not a lot of buzz. A late-breaker has a harder time crashing the party, but box office this year has been so disappointing all around that if Wicked can do great box office there is a chance for both the film and Erivo to make it in, along with many tech nods.

Do I think that’s likely to happen? Maybe. It depends on how the conversation around the awards rolls out. If there is still the need to make the Oscars about big studio films then yes, Wicked should do very well. But if the conversation is about critically acclaimed films, a return to form after Oppenheimer’s win last year, then Wicked will be seen as too commercial to crack the nominations.

I remain intrigued and fascinated by Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s work, potentially, in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. The newly released trailer depicts a grumpy old woman who hates people. Mama can relate. Just the trailer alone makes me think she has a real shot at a nod.

Ron Howard’s film Eden could have a contender or two, whether it’s Ana De Armas or Sydney Sweeney. But it’s too soon to know for sure.

Here are my predictions for this week. I am still benched on Gold Derby as I appear to have been “canceled” by the industry. What fun! So you can’t get my predicitons anywhere else. For what it’s worth.

Best Picture
Conclave
Sing Sing
Emilia Perez
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
Gladiator II (not yet seen)
Dune 2
Wicked
Saturday Night
Alts: Hard Truths, Queer, The Piano Lesson, Nickel Boys, The Substance

Best Director
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Sean Baker, Anora
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Alt. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Alts: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; Paul Mescal, Gladiator II; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Alts: Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (unless actor?)
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Alts: Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
A Real Pain
Anora
The Brutalist
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
Alt. Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Joker Folie a Deux

Editing
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Saturday Night
Gladiator II

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune 2
Conclave
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
Alts: Anora

Production Design
The Brutalist
Dune 2
Conclave
Gladiator II
Wicked
Alts: Saturday Night, Joker Folie a Deux

Costumes
The Brutalist
Wicked
Maria
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Alts: Conclave, Blitz, Saturday Night

Original Score
Conclave
The Brutalist
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2
Alts: Challengers, Joker Folie a Deux, The Piano Lesson, Inside Out 2

And that was all she wrote. Hope you have a nice weekend.