2025 Oscars: Frontrunners and Challengers out of Toronto

We don’t know what the Audience Award will be in Toronto. The track record vis a vis Best Picture has been  good. Only once since the Academy expanded the ballot has a film not been nominated or won:

2023-American Fiction (nominated for Best Picture, won Screenplay)
2022-The Fabelmans (nominated for Best Picture)
2021-Belfast (nominated for Best Picture, won Screenplay)
2020-Nomadland (won Best Picture)
2019-Jojo Rabbit (nominated Best Picture)
2018-Green Book (won Best Picture)
2017-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (nominated Best Picture)
2016-La La land (nominated Best Picture)
2015-Room (nominated Best Picture)
2014-The Imitation Game (nominated Best Picture)
2013-12 Years a Slave (won Best Picture)
2012-Silver Linings Playbook (nominated Best Picture)
2011-Where Do We Go Now?
2010-The King’s Speech (won Best Picture)
2009-Precious (nominated Best Picture)

As far as the buzz out of Toronto goes, here is what I’m getting reading the tea leaves.

Anora is the likely Audience Award winner.   

https://twitter.com/Within1Stem/status/1833000515682312591

Emilia Perez is also getting strong reactions:

Wild Robot is getting strong notices out of Toronto across the board.

'The message at the heart of the story is that kindness is a superpower,' Lupita Nyong’o said at the world premiere of her new animated film 'The Wild Robot' https://t.co/4KhpK3wkza #TIFF24 pic.twitter.com/WZmlLLbKds

— Reuters Showbiz (@ReutersShowbiz) September 9, 2024

A horror film called Heretic with Hugh Grant is a surprising hit:

Wow, #Heretic was absolutely BRILLIANT! One of the most intelligent horror films I’ve seen. The film breezes along, with the suspense hooking you from the beginning & not letting go. I can’t imagine anyone other than Hugh Grant in a role that was seemingly made for him. #TIFF2024 pic.twitter.com/lkJUgyNgAJ

— Lauren Bradshaw (@flickchickdc) September 9, 2024

Amy Adams and Nightbitch are getting middling reactions, mixed on the film, and praise for her work, but not quite on the level of Oscar buzz. There is fan love for her but not a strong bounce from TIFF for the film.

Pamela Anderson is getting some love for her performance in The Last Showgirl:

Pamela Anderson says she’s been preparing her whole life for her role in Gia Coppola’s THE LAST SHOWGIRL. #TIFF2024 pic.twitter.com/lN5WcrgF51

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) September 6, 2024

#TIFF2024: THE SUBSTANCE is a nasty satire of beauty, aging, and the age-old fairytale of success, and a Faustian take on Hollywood glamor.https://t.co/wOi58hhg4b

— FilmObsessive (@FilmObsessive_) September 9, 2024

It looks like Ron Howard’s Eden will not go the distance. The reviews aren’t good. Whether this is because the hive mind continues to punish for Hillbilly Elegy or whether it’s the movie itself (I have no idea, I haven’t seen it), inside the tiny world of the Oscar game, it does not sound promising. Says Owen Gleiberman:

“Eden,” which is based on events that unfolded 100 years ago on one of the Galápagós Islands, is a difficult movie to characterize. It’s been labeled as a “thriller,” but I would describe it as a misanthropic survivalist “Robinson Crusoe” meets “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” with deranged footnotes by Friedrich Nietzsche. For Howard, the film sure is different (it has sex, murder, and animal slaughter). Yet there’s another word for it — the word is terrible. While there’s no denying that Howard has made the ultimate movie that’s not in his wheelhouse, what’s most different about it isn’t the eccentric subject matter. It’s that Howard got so immersed in the subject, so possessed by it, so lost in it that he forgot to do what he can usually do in his sleep: tell a relatable story.

I have to admit it’s kind of a great review, even if it ends the Oscar story for Eden, if there was one.

So, if Anora wins the Audience Award in Toronto, does that make it “THE FRONTRUNNER”? It might be. As I was compiling all of these movies onto a chart I had to put Anora at the top, not just because the bloggers think so, but just because it is the most liked, and passionately liked, of the movies “in the conversation” so far.

Then, I thought about the acting categories. If Danielle Deadwyler is a strong contender to win Best Supporting Actress (for example), does it make The Piano Lesson a potential Best Picture contender? Yes, I believe it does. Here is how things have shaken out with acting wins and Best Picture:

2023-Oppenheimer-Best Actor
2022-Everything Everywhere All At Once -Actress, Supporting Actor & Supporting Actress
2021-CODA-Supporting Actor
2020-Nomadland-Best Actress
2019-Parasite-none (but won Ensemble at SAG)
2018-Green Book-Supporting Actor
2017-The Shape of Water-none
2016-Moonlight-Supporting Actor
2015-Spotlight-none
2014-Birdman-none
2013-12 Years a Slave-Supporting Actress
2012-Argo-none
2011-The Artist-Best Actor
2010-The King’s Speech-Best Actor
2009-The Hurt Locker-none

Acting wins do drive Best Picture wins, but they also drive Best Picture nominations, especially Best Actor. Let’s look at that category since 2009:

2009–2/5 (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart not nominated for Best Picture)
2010-4/5 (Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2011-3/5 (Jean DuJardin, The Artist)
2012-3/5 (Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln)
2013-5/5 (Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club)
2014-4/5 (Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
2015-2/5 (Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant)
2016-4/5 (Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea)
2017-4/5 (Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour)
2018-4/5 (Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody)
2019-3/5 (Joaquin Phoenix, Joker)
2020-4/5 (Anthony Hopkins, The Father)
2021-2/5 (Will Smith, King Richard)
2022-2/5 (Brendan Fraser, The Whale)
2023-4/5 (Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer)

Only twice has the Best Actor winner not been nominated for Best Picture. Whatever actor you predict will win will likely be a Best Picture nominee. If that’s Daniel Craig for Queer, then that movie will be nominated. If it’s Coleman Domingo for Sing Sing, ditto.

Right now, this is how I see the Frontrunners and the Challengers ahead of the Audience Award.

Best Picture
Frontrunner: Anora
Challengers: Conclave, Emilia Perez, maybe Gladiator if it’s good.

Best Director
Frontrunner: Sean Baker, Anora
Challengers: Edward Berger, Conclave, Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Best Actor
Frontrunner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Challengers: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing

Best Actress
Frontrunner: Mikey Madison, Anora
Challengers: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths, Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez; Angelina Jolie, Maria

Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Challengers: Stanley Tucci, Conclave; Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunner: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Challengers: Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux; Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Original Screenplay
Frontrunner: The Brutalist
Challengers: Anora, A Real Pain, Hard Truths

Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunner: Conclave
Challengers: The Piano Lesson, Nickel Boys

Here is how I have ranked the Best Picture contenders. I have The Apprentice making it in because it’s an election year and it will likely follow the trajectory of Vice. How can they not vote for it? They are obsessed with all things Trump.

I don’t know how things will go, of course, but you never go wrong if you stick with the actors, since they rule the Academy. Obviously directors and writers can drive a Best Picture contender too. There are some question marks for me about some of these films. I still don’t know how Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night will play. I have been disappointed with how they have cut the trailers, but maybe that won’t make a difference.

I think the last row – Nickel Boys, Joker Folie a Deux, Saturday Night, The Piano Lesson and Queer are “maybes.” If any of the last row, Blitz, Wicked, Gladiator II and A Complete Unknown is really good, they will have to bump those in the top ten, obviously.

That’s how I see it as of today. My predictions for the Audience Award are:

Anora
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot