An undefinable Oscar season in the midst of a turbulent political time period

AD has a new writer. I’ve known him from Twitter for some time. He’s politically to the Right, but not disagreeable about it. Here is his first column:

Title: An undefinable Oscar season in the midst of a Turbulent Political Time Period

                                                            By: Scott Kernen

If there is one aspect of the Oscar race, or Hollywood in general, that one truly cannot ignore, it is the influence of politics and what is occurring in the world that will shape how industry voters and the public in general will feel. This influence is especially felt during years of presidential elections, where deep polarization takes center stage, and any other topic or event becomes secondary to that until it is over, if it ever is.

On the one hand, this type of environment can make the awards race more unique in terms of the type of films that resonate with the voting body. However, it seems relatively clear that not only is the Oscar race secondary to the politics of 2024, it feels more nonexistent than it has for quite some time. Despite the industry seemingly finding its footing back in 2023 with the presence of Barbenheimer after a few years of healing from the Covid pandemic (in addition to Top Gun Maverick/Avatar 2, etc.), the sense of conversation around the season seems rather quiet right now, even compared to other years. This will most likely be the case until the November election takes place. Once that is “settled,” there might be more clarity regarding what will resonate the most with critics, audiences, and industry voters.

However, despite difficulty attempting to pin down a set of narratives that will resonate, it is still possible to pin down a set of narratives that can. There are several films that prominently stand out, judging by the reactions of audiences, critics, festival goers, etc. The two most obvious ones, coincidentally premiering within three days of each other at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival, are Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez and Sean Baker’s Anora, which both have received significant praise/honors at the three festivals where they have screened (Cannes, Telluride, and now TIFF with the audience award). Both are due for more festival screenings and release dates throughout the fall of the year.

Anora in particular, on a track similar to Nolan’s Oppenheimer, is seemingly finding no difficulty in solidifying itself as an Oscar frontrunner, with nothing but consensus praise being thrown its way. Despite a season with the potential for a lot of twists and turns, no film other than Sean Baker’s Anora has seemed to make such a strong case for a win in Best Picture as his has. In my mind, at least, it would not only be a unique winner, but a worthy one.

Besides the two obvious Cannes titles, there are other films that have made claim to the Best Picture race outside of the festival circuit, such as Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part II. Both released earlier in the year, many observers believe that the rather quiet landscape has allowed for these two projects of opposite presentation (one small and intimate, the other loud and grand) might help propel each a long way.

Despite the release of Dune 2 getting dinged by the SAG strike, and Sing Sing having its own unusual rollout, both will benefit  from an Oscar year that is somewhat light on crowd-pleasers and enormous technical showcases. Despite a lot happening in the next few months, those two seem rather solid as of now, at least for a nomination, and each would be deserving of that recognition.  Two fall film festival premieres that appeal to the older guard of the Academy, Edward Berger’s Conclave, and Brady Corbet’s epic six years in the making, The Brutalist, have garnered praise, one for its ability to appeal to a large swath of individuals (Conclave), and the other for its ability to present an epic biography with no limitations (The Brutalist), two very different projects in execution.

Other possible Best Picture contenders out of the fall fest circuit include Jason Reitman’s crowd-pleasing Saturday Night, RaMell Ross’s experimental adaptation in Nickel Boys. Also making an impression, festival winners like Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door (Golden Lion) and Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck (TIFF Audience Winner), which is trying to find distribution as of right now. In addition to those are the surprise Telluride screenings of Ali Abassi’s Trump Biopic, The Apprentice, and Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, which have the potential to find an audience.

As for films that are yet to premiere but show a ton of promise, we can officially include Steve McQueen’s period piece Blitz, Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2, Robert Zemeckis’s Here, James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown, and Ridley Scott’s follow-up to his Best Picture winner, Gladiator II.  It’s a wide open field, but one that will be difficult to fully assess until all the pieces fall into place.

Nevertheless, here are my Oscar predictions in above-the-line categories as of now (with a number of festivals yet to occur).

Best Picture:

1. Anora
2. Sing Sing
3. The Brutalist
4. Emilia Perez
5. Dune: Part 2
6. Blitz
7. Conclave
8. Nickel Boys
9. The Life Of Chuck
10. Gladiator 2

Alts: A Real Pain, Saturday Night

 Best Director:

1. Sean Baker, Anora
2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
3. Steve McQueen, Blitz
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part 2

Alts: Edward Berger, Conclave, RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys.

 Best Actor:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
5. Daniel Craig, Queer

Alts: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice, Jesse Eisenberg , A Real Pain

 Best Actress:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
3. Angelina Jolie, Maria
4. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Alts: Amy Adams, Nightbitch, Julianne Moore, and/or Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Stephen Graham, Blitz
5. John Lithgow, Conclave

Alts: Stanly Tucci, Conclave, Denzel Washington, Gladiator II, and Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Toni Colette, Juror No. 2

Alts: Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Blitz
4. A Real Pain
5. Saturday Night

Alts: The Seed of the Sacred Fig, All We Imagine As Light

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Sing Sing
2. Conclave
3. The Life of Chuck
4. Nickel Boys
5. Emilia Perez

Alts: Dune: Part II, Nightbitch