NextGen Oscarwatcher: Best Actor – A Small Field with a Solid Top Five.

For this next segment, rather than spotlighting ALL of the acting categories, it is important to go through each of them individually to fully dissect what is possible and what is probably wishful thinking.

Best Actor

The Best Actor field, though at first glance somewhat barren of a large number of options, is full of strong performances that many pundits think make this an exciting race to watch. At the moment, three actors are not just vying for a nomination, but many believe each has a good chance to win. It will come down to how popular the movies are, how overdue the actors are, and who can build a consensus.

The top three right now appear to be:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Having seen two of these performances so far, I can attest that the win could go either way. Colman Domingo shines in his lead performance, despite being one of two primary actors in his film (the other being Paul Raci). Domingo would be a worthy winner in a role that highlights his range of emotion. He’s been my predicted winner for many months, and still might be. The buzz is shifting away from Sing Sing at the moment, but that could change when the critics groups weigh in.

Nonetheless, Domingo will very likely remain a constant this awards season, alongside his co star Clarence Maclin. Fiennes was the most surprising aspect of Conclave for me, giving a grounded and emotionally compelling performance that unites a talented, crowded ensemble of characters. He might not win—though he seems strong for a BAFTA—he is an easy call for a nomination in the top three.

The only performance I haven’t seen of the three is Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Those who have seen it have declared Brody the frontrunner. Is that just buzz and groupthink? Can it really happen? Hard to say right now. He will have to build momentum as the race proceeds.

His performance has been praised as a tour de force that rivets the audience throughout the film’s 3.5-hour runtime. Mirroring his performance in The Piano, the role shows the opposite side of Brody, that is, his restraint and maturity after years of seemingly just being a character actor despite his history-making lead actor win.

Brody would join a small list of actors who have won in the lead category at least twice:

Daniel Day-Lewis
Sean Penn
Dustin Hoffman
Tom Hanks
Anthony Hopkins
Marlon Brando
Frederic March
Gary Cooper

Brody’s performance has been compared to Daniel Day-Lewis’s in There Will Be Blood, and being an ambitious analysis of the American Dream, this screams Best Actor. Whether or not the film comes along in other ways remains to be seen, but if there is one element that nobody can stop talking about, it’s Adrien Brody’s presence in Brady Corbet’s film. I’m seeing it next month at NYFF and will have more words on it then.

Filling the last two slots, we see fewer top-tier choices than in other categories this year, but there are still a fair number of names worth mentioning. Two that people have brought up, one seen, other unseen, are Daniel Craig in Queer and Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. Two entirely different projects and characters, but both having traits the acting branch connects with.

Craig has paid his dues to the industry and gives a very nuanced performance in Guadagnino’s project. Though initial reactions were rather divisive, it seems like the type of “artistic project” that would resonate with international voters. Chalamet in A Complete Unknown is Academy catnip, a performance that many pundits believe might prevail if the movie is good and if he’s believable as Bob Dylan. Besides Brody, it’s a portrayal that, on paper, could go the distance. But no one has seen it yet so we can’t say for sure.

Other contenders that people have listed include Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice, John David Washington in The Piano Lesson (Having seen it, I can affirm he is solid but is somewhat upstaged by Deadwyler), Paul Mescal in Gladiator II, and the off-chance possibility for Gabriel LaBelle in Saturday Night (though it is mainly an ensemble piece). Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg have been regarded as co-leads in A Real Pain, but the former will likely go supporting and the latter will go lead, with Culkin being touted as the one with the best chance. It would be awesome if Austin Butler for The Bikeriders made a play, but unlikely. Ditto for Keith Kupferer in Ghostlight (a hidden gem).

The Golden Globes have an opportunity to expand this category thoroughly, where people like Glen Powell for Hit Man, Ryan Gosling for The Fall Guy, and Michael Keaton for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could show up. Joaquin Phoenix for Joker: Folie a Deux will most likely not, due to the recent controversy when he bailed at the last minute on Todd Haynes. But that’s a conversation for another day.

Predictions

Globe Drama Actor: