Venice Dispatch – Will Win / Should Win

All 21 films in competition at the 81st Venice Film Festival have screened and, as per tradition, it’s time for guesswork.

Now, we know that jury president Isabelle Huppert has taste. Not just because she is ISABELLE HUPPERT, she’s proved herself in this capacity as recently as 2009 in Cannes and delivered a rock-solid slate of winners (including The White Ribbon for the Palme d’Or). So expectations are high and I’m allowing more than a few predicted and personally favored winners to align. Wishful thinking is fatal, I know, but surely Izzy won’t let us down, right?!

Let’s take a closer look.

Best Young Performer

Will win: Martina Scrinzi (Vermiglio)
Should win: Martina Scrinzi (Vermiglio)

There are not a lot of obvious choices this year, so the real challenge is deciding who qualifies as “young” performer? Since the festival doesn’t appear to have strict eligibility rules regarding age or prior experience, French actors Paul Kircher (And Their Children After Them) and Benjamin Voisin (The Quiet Son) could both win this despite having had their breakthroughs in the industry already. The thing is, I just didn’t care for their respective films this year to make that call.

Drew Starkey (Queer) would be a fine choice. Talk about a breakthrough – he’s going to be a star and this award could mark the moment his career changed. Starkey is 30 though, which might be pushing the “young” thing a little bit.

I’m betting on Italian first-time actress Scrinzi for her memorable debut performance in the gorgeous, quietly moving family drama Vermiglio. Scrinzi isn’t the lead but part of an ensemble, which might hurt her chances, but then Vermiglio is the best Italian comp film by a mile, so this could be a way to ackowledge the host country in some form.

Best Screenplay

Will win: Love
Should win: Love

Norwegian writer/director Dag Johan Haugerud’s essayistic drama about love, sex, life is the last comp film to screen and an absolute balm. Written with much wit and insight, the script finds love in unconventional forms at unexpected places. Instead of kitsch, it delivers a truthful, deeply felt slice of life that beguiles start to finish. And that dreamy-jazzy score? I want to SWIM in it. A late-fest highlight that wouldn’t even surprise me if it ends up with a bigger trophy, but screenplay seems like the safest bet.

Not counting the numerous adapted screenplays (Queer, I’m Still Here, Harvest, The Room Next Door), Three Friends would be my alternate pick even though everyone else hates it. Being a junkie for French romance, Emmanuel Mouret’s words really struck me.

Other than these two, Maria, Vermiglio and Stranger Eyes are potential spoilers.

Best Actor

Will win: Daniel Craig (Queer)
Should win: Daniel Craig (Queer)

In my mind, the contenders for best actor include:

– Daniel Craig (Queer)
– Vincent Lindon (The Quiet Son)
– Jude Law (The Order)
– Adrien Brody and/or Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
– Lee Kang-sheng (Stranger Eyes)
– Caleb Landry Jones (Harvest)

On merit alone, I think Craig wins this easy, the question is if the jury has one of the major awards in mind for Queer. Guadagnino’s film proves, to my surprise, pretty divisive and has some vocal (*cough* straight) detractors, so I’m not sure how it’s going to land with this jury. Will one of those Will-Smith-vetoing-120 BPM situations happen again? At the very least a win for best actor should be safe, though.

Best Actress

Will win: Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
Should win: Angelina Jolie (Maria)

It’s going to be exciting to see what arguably the best actresses alive (and two-time Coppa Volpi winner) considers good actressing in a competitive year with at least six strong contenders:

– Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
– Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
– Angelina Jolie (Maria)
– Ia Sukhitashvili (April)
– Tilda Swinton and/or Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)
– India Hair (Three Friends)

For me personally this would be between Torres and Jolie and by a hair I would probably give it to Jolie because, on top of a breathtaking, operatically dramatic performance, we get to see in Maria such a rare convergence of superstardom between two iconic women. Having said that, I would not count out Torres and her beautifully understated, heartbreaking performance in I’m Still Here.

But then Kidman just feels like the inevitable choice for Huppert’s jury, don’t you think? It’s a psychosexual, darkly subversive role, one that the jury president herself gravitates toward and 100% would have slayed. Unless the jury really wants to make a statement by handing Babygirl one of the top prizes, I think this might be Kidman’s to lose. And yes, the gays deserve to see Isabelle give Nicole a big shiny trophy.

Best Director

Will win: Athina Rachel Tsangari (Harvest)
Should win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Going out on a limb here. I’m in the minority of those supporting Harvest, and even for me Tsangari would not be the top pick for director. My pick for the greatest directorial achievement of this festival would be between Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Dea Kulumbegashvili (April), but I suspect they’ll be called on stage for something else (if not, Kulumbegashvili would be the likeliest winner here). Luca Guadagnino also a strong contender but will the love for Queer go to Daniel Craig instead?

Because of these strategic considerations I’m placing my bet on Tsangari for effectively rendering a nightmare of allegories on screen.

Special Jury Prize

Will win: I’m Still Here
Should win: April

For the second runner-up prize I’m thinking Walter Salles’ moving biographical drama. It’s one of the few films this year with an express (and timely) political message, but above all it’s expertly realized and carried by a devastating lead performance from Fernanda Torres. A bit on the formulaic side, yes, but very very hard to dislike.

Grand Jury Prize

Will win: April
Should win: Queer

Especially with Huppert as jury president, I can’t quite imagine April going home empty-handed. Dea Kulumbegashvili’s austere, intensely spooky abortion drama seems exactly like her cup of tea. But will the film face opposition from other jury members, whether for its subject matter or impenetrable approach?

Golden Lion

Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: The Brutalist

My three favorite films in this year’s competition are The Brutalist, Queer and April. It would make me very happy to see any of them win (deservedly) the prestigious Golden Lion. Of the three, I think The Brutalist and April are particularly likely to stand out. But will the jury go for the former’s bravura of grand, classical filmmaking or the latter’s singular vision and audacity?

Or maybe I’m completely off the mark and something else entirely sneaks in for the win? Babygirl? Vermiglio? The Room Next Door? Well, we’ll find out soon enough when the winners of the 81st Venice Film Festival are announced tomorrow Sep. 7th.