2025 Oscar Predictions: Is It Finally Ralph Fiennes’ Year?

Edward Berger’s Conclave opens in select theaters today. One of the best performances this year has to be Ralph Fiennes in a Bravura performance in Conclave. Fiennes has had a long, fruitful career yet has never really come close to winning an Oscar. But this might finally be his year.

Before we look back at the career of Ralph Fiennes, let’s quickly look at the competition. Over at The Contending, the prize seems to be mostly divided between two actors. Ralph Fiennes for Conclave and Adrien Brody for The Brutalist.

That is most certainly how it might shake down. But there are other actors who might be rising to the top of the pile, starting with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing. The film overall is flying under the radar at the moment, but that could change. For one thing, Sing Sing is uplifting where very few films are this year. That might make a difference in a competitive year. What we don’t yet know is whether this is a competitive year.

There is also Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. Daniel Craig is earning buzz for his work in Queer. But it’s too early to say who is currently dominating this race. We’re really lost at this point since there isn’t really an Oscar race, not yet. That will change in the next month or two.

Best Actor is most often linked to Best Picture, unless there is a reason to award the actor, like the performance was above and beyond (Brendan Fraser in The Whale), or they are overdue (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart). But barring that, Best Actor has gone to a Best Picture contender every other time since 2009.

The strength of both Conclave and The Brutalist don’t clarify where we are now. But I think we can talk briefly about Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. He is getting some early talk for doing a great job playing the elusive Bob Dylan, but I personally think that is worthy of a nomination. Bringing in a win for Chalamet at this stage in his career is a long shot, unless he’s, you know, losing 50 pounds or gaining 50 pounds. But he’s a pretty boy — though a good actor — and those don’t usually win.

So I think the one who has it right now is Fiennes. This, for several reasons. His career, which has been impressive across the board. And love for the movie overall, and that is where Fiennes might come on strong, to be the one big award for the movie. It’s likely not winning Best Picture (you never know) but a prize like this is still a big win for the film.

Most people today, sadly, know Fiennes for his work as Voldemort in Harry Potter, but his career started long before then. He was on Prime Suspect with Helen Mirren way back in 1991. He was, of course, in Wuthering Heights, at which point he caught the attention of women who collectively swooned.

He was just so ridiculously handsome, it was hard to get passed his looks, at leat early on.

But he hit his stride and made a major name for himself as the Nazi in Schindler’s List.

He’s magnificent in Schindler’s List and it showcased his range as an actor the following year in Robert Redford’s Quiz Show. Fiennes was nominated for an Oscar in the Supporting category for Schindler’s List but he would lose to Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive. I’m sorry, but this was one of those forhead slappers and everyone knew it. Fiennes was by far the more accomplished of the two but perhaps split the vote, maybe, with Leonardo DiCaprio is Gilbert Grape. Or maybe they just liked Tommy Lee Jones more. But either way, that one was a travesty.

Just these two roles side by side are proof enough that when Fiennes takes on a role he completely transforms into someone else. In Quiz Show, he plays the Golden Boy who cheats his way to becoming an American hero.  Despite the film earning a Best Picture nomination, Fiennes did not get one.

The second Best Picture winner Fiennes would star is was The English Patient, wherein he played the titular character. He would spend much of the movie confined to a bed with a face and body covered in burn scars. But it was the flashbacks where we got to see Fiennes devour Kristen Scott Thomas back in the day when there was still good sex in movies with grown men. Alas, such is not the case anymore.

In some sense, Fiennes good looks held him back from being taken seriously. Now, in his older years, we’re not blinded by his pretty face so we can see just what a great actor he has become.

After The English Patient, which won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, among other wins, Fiennes had a long career working in almost everything but he never starred in anything that earned him a nomination, despite how great he was in Best Picture nominees like The Grand Budapest Hotel.

In Conclave, Fiennes is the central role. The camera is on his face nearly the entire time. We watch him fret and fume. We watch him worry. We watch him negotiate. Ultimately, we watch him keep things on track and save the day. There is no Conclave without Fiennes’ central performance.

That is more a showcase of Stanley Tucci, but here is one with Fiennes:

How might Conclave fare in terms of nominations? It will do very well. It will dominate the BAFTAs, not just because Fiennes is British but because the novel is by an acclaimed British writer, Robert Harris.

It’s easily in for:

Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor
Supporting Actor (one at a minimum)
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Score

And maybe:
Costumes
Production Design
Hair & Makeup

It can potentially get 12 nominations. The only film that will come close will be Dune or maybe Gladiator II. Conclave is very much a “old Academy” type of movie, but the Academy is still 75% “old Academy” and it’s ruled by actors and Conclave is driven by an acting ensemble. It has everything an Oscar contender needs.

It also has a message that will resonate with the very progressive Academy. It’s a spoiler so I won’t talk about it but suffice it to say, it will be in the culture wars and it will have many people supporting it within the industry because of it. In other words, if it was just a thriller about the papacy there’s a lower chance it would resonate. But the social justice theme in it is what will drive it.

Finally, things are getting very weird in this country right now. The election has polarized us all and it will be a very tese next couple of weeks — outcome unknown. But I suspect however it turns out, the point of view of Oscar voters won’t change. They are still very much “woke progressives” who understand their industry is collapsing and that they need to think a little differently about these potential nominees.

Gladiator II, Wicked, Dune Part Two will go a long way toward keeping the Oscars “modern.”

Wicked showed up on the top ten lists over at Penske media (Clayton Davis, Scott Feinberg) after it screened for a small cabal of influencers. Make of that what you will. Wicked is still embroiled in a bit of a social media nightmare but once the film opens it will have passed.

And with that, here are my predictions for this week.

Best Picture
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
Sing Sing
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
The Substance
Alts: Wicked, Blitz, The Substance, Wicked, The Piano Lesson

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Alt. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance, Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Alts: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Alts: Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun; Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
Saturday Night
The Substance
Alt. Emilia Pérez; The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2

Editing
Conclave
Anora
Saturday Night
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II

Cinematography
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
The Substance

Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
The Substance
Gladiator II
Wicked

Costumes
Wicked
Dune 2
The Substance
Maria
Gladiator II

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2