2025 Oscar Predictions: The Academy Should Go Back to Five for Best Picture

There has never been a better year for the Academy to shrink the Best Picture race down to five than right now. The last time they did that was during World War II, when the war effort meant fewer films were being released to the public, and thus, the Oscars didn’t have the luxury of ten nominees. It’s hardly a competition. There are barely any movies coming out at all. Finding ten for Best Picture is like shooting fish in a barrel. It ain’t that hard.

I say this knowing it will never happen. Ten keeps the Academy from attacks against activists. That’s the problem it solves. It allows them to have films that are representative and inclusive as well as films that are good. This year is thin. We still have movies to see but imagine what it would feel like if there were only five slots for Best Picture and not ten.

The other reason is that the entire Oscar machine, the one I helped build (and that I now regret), demands that there be ten movies because it’s more grease for the wheels. More money to around. How else will they fund the Penske Empire? They’re not the only ones. The money train spreads around to the New York Times, to The Wrap, to Vanity Fair – we’re talking millions, maybe even hundreds of millions.

So what incentive would they have to shrink it back to five? None. The Oscars don’t drive the box office anymore, and the box office doesn’t drive the Oscars. But ask yourself this question: Would the Emmys, the Golden Globes, or the BAFTAs be more exciting with ten than five? The answer is no. That’s because we already know heading in which movies have the best shot to win.

So, let’s discuss what films would drive the race if there were only five.  If the Oscars were held today, before anyone has seen Gladiator II and Wicked, what would the top five be? Usually it’s the movies that would be nominated for the DGA or for Best Director.

Looking back to the days when we had five Best Picture nominees, it wasn’t that hard to predict because in general, the DGA and the Oscar directing category mostly predicted it.

Not always. Sometimes the actors made the difference, as in the year 2001:

One might have thought either Mulholland Drive or Black Hawk Down might have made it in, but In the Bedroom did because of the actors involved. Sissy Spacek was the frontrunner to win Best Actress (she didn’t win, however). Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball. Ah, yes, I remember it well.

And then there was this weird year, 2000:

Again, Chocolat was driven by actors (and the Weinstein machine).

Of course, I was covering the Oscars during all of those years and I remember that predicting Best Picture was hard but it was only about that fifth slot. And weirdly enough, we can get so close now that sometimes it’s only about that tenth slot. Last year, the PGA and Oscar matches 10/10. That was a pretty good sign, to me, that it was time to shrink back to five until such time as the industry is thriving again.

Will anyone listen to me? No.

The other big change is that Best Director doesn’t drive the Best Picture race as much as it used to. Even though last year’s Oppenheimer and the previous year’s Everything Everywhere All At Once match Picture and Director, they don’t necessarily. They definitely did when there were five Pictures and five Directors. They tended to go together.

If we were looking at this year’s race through the lens of the old days, we’d probably see it lining up behind the directors, like:

Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet
Dune 2 – Denis Villenueve
Gladiator II – Ridley Scott
Emilia Perez – Jaques Audiard

Even just making that list of five changes how I see the race. If I know there are ten slots, it’s easier to expand it to imagine what if. What if critics push All We Imagine as Light? Would that have a chance? How about A Real Pain?

And by the way, if one of those films got in, like A Real Pain, it would elevate Jesse Eisenberg significantly. It would be a major career boost. But if A Real Pain slides in with nine other film does it have the same sort of clout? No, it doesn’t, because it’s not that competitive.

That’s why I wish they would shrink it back to five. Give us something to work with.

Predictions

My good pal Steve Pond is back with his first column on predictions. It’s well worth the read. Nobody does it better than Steve. For my money, he, along with Anne Thompson and Dave Karger, are the still the best — the OGs.

Here is what Steve has for his Best Picture list:

“Emilia Perez” (Neflix)
“Anora” (Neon)
“Conclave” (Focus)
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
“Saturday Night” (Sony)

“September 5” (Paramount)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
“We Live in Time” (A24)

The Oscar Expert and the Brother Bro have put out a new video too:

This is what their list looks like:

And our friend Clarence Moye has put out his predictions for The Contending (and will be posting them over the weekend):

1. Conclave
2. The Brutalist
3. Gladiator II
4. Anora
5. Emilia Perez
6. Dune: Part Two
7. A Real Pain
8. Saturday Night
9. Blitz
10. Sing Sing

So if we put them all together for the fun of it, this is what that looks like:

When I add mine in there, which looks likes this:

There is no table associated with this shortcode.

Marshall Flores is no longer working with Awards Daily (and the hits keep on coming) so I am now doing the maths all by myself, but I think I did it right and came up with this cumulative list of all of our Best Picture predictions:

Anora
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Dune II
Sing Sing
Gladiator II
Blitz
A Real Pain
Saturday Night

The one that just barely missed was Nickel Boys. Of course, none of this means anything really. It’s all just filling time and filling space for the fun of it, so that I check back next year and see where we are.

But all of this to say that the top five here look like what we imagine would be the top five for Best Picture (without having seen Blitz or Gladiator II). I also think A Real Pain will be a strong contender because it’s not only actor-driven, it’s actor-turned-director driven. That makes a difference.

DGA will also matter, though I expect we’ll see Anora, The Brutalist, Dune II, and then it gets sketchy. Maybe Emilia Perez, probably Gladiator II. It’s too soon to know any of this.

I am very excited about seeing The Brutalist this weekend and Gladiator II in a couple of weeks. Then we’ll know better where we are.

Here are my weekly predictions.

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Conclave
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
Blitz
All We Imagine as Light
Alts: Saturday Night, Wicked, The Piano Lesson

I do think that the critics will push in a movie. I don’t know what it will be. I am taking a wild guess that it’s All We Imagine as Light, but it could easily be something else, like Nickel Boys or Seed of the Sacred Fig. They always have a slot of late.

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Alt. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Alts: Daniel Craig, Queer;Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Alts: Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (unless lead?)
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
Anora
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
Alt. Saturday NightThe Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Nickel Boys
Conclave
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2

Editing
The Brutalist
Anora
Conclave
Saturday Night
Gladiator II

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune 2
Conclave
Gladiator II
Anora

Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Wicked

Costumes
Wicked
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Maria
Gladiator II

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2

Have a great weekend, dear readers.