2025 Oscar Predictions: To Demi or Not to Demi

This is not exactly the most exciting Oscar year on record. I think it might be maybe the most “thin” since 2020. We still have a ways to go, but with major wipe-outs like Horizon, Furiosa, Joker Folie a Deux, our slate will look more like the Spirit Awards.

Then again, there are some “big” Oscar movies, like Gladiator II, which has a tastemaker screening in Los Angeles tonight with the cast, along with Ridley Scott. They usually do that when they are somewhat nervous about the movie and want the softest landing possible — fill them with booze, put them in a room with Denzel Washington — and they’re more likely to punch up. And why shouldn’t they? Nobody wants to see the collapse of Hollywood.

Gladiator II has quite the massive budget, apparently, which means it will need to make bank. Having a bunch of bloggers and critics hammer it with green tomatoes will hurt their ability to profit. Then again, I personally don’t think they will have to worry. They didn’t replace any of the heroes with women. There doesn’t seme to be much of a MESSAGE. I will bet audiences are craving exactly this kind of escapist entertainment with beefcake on tap.

There are other movies, like Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2 and Robert Zemeckis’ Here and of course, Jon Chu’s Wicked. These are the last of the Big Oscar Movies. Otherwise, what we’ve locked in already is what we have for Oscars 2025.

The Golden Globes have announced their categories. And they are, as follows — the ones I think are most likely to be considered are in bold:

Drama

Gladiator ll
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
The Brutalist
Queer
A Complete Unknown
Maria
Conclave
The Room Next Door
Blitz
The Outrun
I’m Still Here
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Juror #2
Babygirl
Civil War
Sing Sing
We Live in Time
Nickel Boys
The Fire Inside
Unstoppable
The Piano Lesson
His Three Daughters
The Order
All We Imagine as Light
Oh, Canada
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Longlegs
The Last Showgirl
Hard Truths
Small Things Like These
Here
The Bikeriders
The Apprentice
September 5
Back to Black
Bob Marley: One Love

Musical comedy

Challengers
Anora
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Joker: Folie à Deux
Hit Man
A Real Pain
Nightbitch
Kinds of Kindness
Dìdi
Saturday Night
Deadpool & Wolverine
The Fall Guy
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
A Different Man
The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Moana 2
Mean Girls
Mufasa: The Lion King

The Golden Globes used to be easier to predict before the storm that forced then to overhall the entire system. Now, there are 300 voters, where there used to be 90, and they’re from all over the world. That makes calling it a little bit harder, but so far, we haven’t seen them stray all that much from the general consensus.

Here is getting a major roll-out at the AFI Fest later this month, with a Director Spotlight and likely a gala. That should give it a bump of publicity and we’ll know soon enough whether or not it has the stuff to go all the way.

It’s interesting to see the new guard:

Brady Corbet
Sean Baker
Edward Berger
Todd Phillips
Yorgos Lanthimos
Luca Guadagnino
Steve McQueen
Denis Villeneuve
Coralie Fargeat

Kicking it around with old guard:

Francis Ford Coppola
Robert Zemeckis
Clint Eastwood
Ridley Scott
Paul Schrader
Mike Leigh

There are obviously other directors who matter right now, and that is by no means a definitive list.  But I chose these because the generational divide is easy to spot.

But we can see the tension between the generations and the frustrations of knowing who might be out there who cares what any of them has to say? How to even reach audiences now? It’s not easy.

Many of the films in the International Feature race are standouts, like The Seed of the Sacred Fig, All We Imagine is Light, I’m Still Here, and of course, Emilia Perez. Like last year, we’re likely to see some crossover in the Best Picture race.

To Demi or not to Demi

A friend of mine said to me yesterday that Demi Moore is getting major Oscar buzz for The Substance. I’ve been back and forth on this. Plenty of people are predicting it. She is popular enough in the industry that if even just her friends voted for her, which honestly, they might, then she’s in. I’d say a prediction for her feels more and more likely.

Here is a shout out to Connor Old on YouTube who runs down the Best Actress race:

She’s also such a big star that she’s getting mainstream press for her work and her career:

The reviews for The Substance are great. The audience score isn’t so great, considering it’s challenging material. But one thing you get with this film is a female director – not just a director but a bold new auteur who had, it’s safe to say, made her mark with this film and with her last movie, Revenge.

Sometimes the Oscar blogger world can be too “inside” such that they forget what a buddy club the Academy can be. I think there is very little chance that Demi Moore won’t get the support of the crew that helped push Andrea Riseborough through, and for the same reasons. Moore has quite the career behind her. Despite that, she’s never been nominated for an Oscar.

That’s because it took her a long time to shake her “brat pack” stigma. She tried. She pushed herself. She was GI Jane. She could have been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in A Few Good Men.

She was certainly good enough back then to get in. Even funnier that the Best Supporting Actress who won that year was Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinney, which was considered an insult to the other more serious performances. But Tomei has more than made up for it over the years as people have re-evalutated her work. She beat Miranda Richardson on Damage, Joan Plowright in Enchanted April, Judy Davis in Husbands and Wives, and Vanessa Redgrave in Howards End. There was no chance for Demi Moore to crack the five.

She made quite a few trashy thrillers — my favorite genre — like the hilarious Disclosure while sexually harassing Michael Douglas, and Indecent Proposal where Robert Redford pays one million for a night with her.

My all-time favorite Demi Moore performance, other than in Ghost obviously, was in The Juror. It is true camp of the highest order but it is sincerely one of my favorite guilty pleasures.

Alec Baldwin plays the villain and Joseph Gordon-Levitt is very young in it. Anne Heche has a small but memorable role as the friend who dies.

I mean, look how young:

I think the Demi-ssance is coming. I can feel it. The question is, whom do we bump from the five?

First, let’s look at how we think the Golden Globes might go. Unfortunately, The Substance wasn’t ruled in the categories for the Golden Globes. Obviously, if it goes in Comedy, she will get a nomination. If it’s in Drama, that will be harder. Let’s assume, for now, they put it in Comedy.

Best Actress Drama
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (or Tilda Swinton?

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Mikey Madison, Anora – locked.
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Demi Moore, The Substance
Zendaya, Challengers
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Alts: Emily Blunt, The Fall Guy, Amy Adams Nightbitch

But when we get the Oscars, it’s a little bit more tricky.   If these are our predicted five:

Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Who gets bumped for Demi Moore? I suspect it would be Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun. But who knows!

Demi Moore has paid her dues and then some.  Everyone loves a comeback story. The first question is, can she get nominated. The second question is, can she win?

Meanwhile, Pamela Anderson is also coming back with The Last Showgirl. She could land at the Golden Globes maybe? Probably not but you never know.

I guess we’ll wait and see how things go once the AFI Fest rolls out.

Here are my predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
Sing Sing
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
The Substance
All We Imagine as Light
Alts: Blitz, Saturday Night, Wicked, The Piano Lesson

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alt. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Alts: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Demi Moore, The Substance

Alts: Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun; Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
Anora
Saturday Night
The Substance
Alt. Emilia Pérez; The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2

Editing
Conclave
Anora
Saturday Night
The Brutalist
Gladiator II

Cinematography
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Anora

Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Wicked

Costumes
Wicked
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Maria
Gladiator II

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2

Have a great weekend.