2025 Oscar Predictions: It was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.” – Charles Dickens

Ours isn’t the first society to be a divided society based on class. If only we were unique in that. Alas, we are not. Humans do the same thing over and over again. We build tribes. We fight wars. We conquer. We fail. We live. We die. And power corrupts. At the moment, power is what is destroying Hollywood and the Oscars. There is an easy fix to all of it, but it’s not one anyone will like. No one gives up power willingly. They either have to learn their lesson the hard way (Citizen Kane) or they get lucky and learn it while there is still time to turn things around (It’s a Wonderful Life).

I say all of this because there is still no Oscar race. There is a bloated, over-saturated market of Oscar BLOGGERS and people whose income depends upon the Oscar race, but there isn’t a thriving, bustling, exciting film industry or Oscar race. It is distressing and depressing, made worse by the ongoing climate of fear and the culture of silence. No one will talk about anything because everyone is terrified of either losing their jobs or being kicked out of utopia.

Hollywood is not running out of movies. There are hundreds upon hundreds of them. They’re just not making movies anyone wants to see and they keep mass producing them. And people still don’t want to see them. It’s the writing. It sucks. It’s the virtue signaling. It sucks. It’s the “woketopia.” It sucks.

God help us.

So it’s up to me a few others to tell it like it is. What the hell.

I have no desire to cover anything going on in Penske Media land — not since Gold Derby kicked me out for the season. And the people I might have covered have been sucked into the Gold Derby monopoly and I don’t really want to cover them either. So I’ll stick with the independents for now. I highly recommend everyone read the new site by the Awards Daily team (without toxic me) The Contending. That’s where you’re going to find the best coverage of the Oscars, the Emmys and everything in between.

But to get the contraband, you gotta come here. No one will ever know. Your secret is safe with me.

We’re in the cannibalization phase of the Oscar and film industry where a movie like Robert Zemeckis’ Here can be screened for critics and they absolutely rip it to shreds.

I mean they viciously tear it apart. The reviews are so bad I might go buy a ticket and sit all alone in a movie theater and watch it for myself. No, they did not invite me to see it because, as you know, I’ve been blacklisted, as though they actually have the luxury of blacklisting people still. As I said, the cannibalization phase.

Speaking of cannibalizing, long time film critic Matt’s Movie Reviews who has been on Rotten Tomatoes of 18 years was all of sudden dropped from the platform.

They wrote him the following note:

Matt Pejkovic was distraught over it. For him, it was an enormous loss. I wrote to Rotten Tomatoes myself to see if they had any comments. But they did not get back to me. They gave him an excuse like his traffic was not high enough. Well, a quick scroll of Rotten Tomatoes – land I can promise you there are people on there who get no traffic.

It happened so unexpectedly and arbitrarily that Matt doesn’t quite know what to do. They told him he can apply again in 2027. All we can do is take them at their word. If you dare criticize them they might drop you from the platform. So no one will step up and try to help Matt get his account restored. But if you’d like to write them you can do so using this email.

I would hope it isn’t that he gave Conclave a negative review and gave Am I Racist a positive review. I hope that’s not the reason because the only benefit to Rotten Tomatoes would be if the critics offered a variety of points of view.

I would hope that their decision to destroy his life has some merit besides powerful people getting annoyed with his viewpoint. I don’t know what happened but it seems like a weird thing for RT to do. It kind of reminds me of Telluride telling me I was not invited to the Patron’s Brunch but pretending it was about anything other than Rebecca Keegan’s hit piece. I mean…you do something long enough you develop a groove and no one really unseats you unless there is a reason.

The bottom line is this. This industry cannot survive with this level of fear and paranoia. It just can’t. The movies, the award shows, the monologues — none of it will work unless artists feel free and they won’t feel free as long as they are part of the ruling class oligarchy.

None of this means there won’t be an Oscar race. There will. Ballots go out to Golden Globe voters by the end of this month. It’s possible that there will be some pulse by then.

So let’s do a quick news round up of our pals the Gate Crashers, if there is any Oscar news happening.

Jeff Sneider asks:

He then links to this video:

They’ve got 8K views on it, which isn’t bad, but it shows you that the Oscar race is not exactly lighting YouTube on fire. Like total flatline. Sorry to say.

You can read Jeff’s stories on his site. You should become a member. He has juicy content.

Our pal Jeffrey Wells has written up the old saying from the Oscar race of old: The Poland Curse!

Speaking of David Poland, in case you did not know, he’s running the Hot Button from Substack and yes, he did proclaim A Complete Unknown the film to beat.

Everyone has their own frontrunner. And for Poland, it’s this one. You can find David’s work over here. He’s not a Gate Crasher but I figured, why not send some love his way, considering he’s not on Gold Derby either.

So here are my thoughts on A Complete Unknown, and whether this is the film to beat. Oscar bloggers always make the mistake, myself included, of judging a film’s chances of winning based on our own reactions to the movie or the crowd we saw the film with. This is obviously less of a thing today because there is no real Oscar race to speak of. But in general, a movie can play like gangbusters and totally flatline when it comes time to vote.

Unfortunately, humans are depressingly predictable. We tend to build a consensus vote off of “vibes.” Those vibes don’t generally come from the bloggers, although they certainly herd the movies into a smaller pile. No, the vibes come from the energy around “town.” That doesn’t really start to build until the Golden Globes and Critics Choice make their picks. Of course, the bloggers usually guide these early voters into place and that’s why they get paid the big bucks.

I promise you there was a time when the Oscar race was as exciting as politics. And maybe it will be again one day. Who knows. Hope springs eternal.

But be that as it may, A Complete Unknown isn’t the kind of movie that will SPEAK to Oscar or industry voters. There is no reason why it would. The only reason would be if the Academy was still dominated by what a friend of mine once described as your typical Eagles concert goer.

It was the perfect description for what we all call “old Academy.” It was 60-ish, liberal, white male who likes The Eagles. Or Bob Dylan, although I would never put them in the same category. That generation, that demographic, MIGHT decide that A Complete Unknown is the movie of the year but otherwise, what’s the driving force behind the win?

I can give the driving force behind the current frontrunners:

Anora is a dazzling work of unparalleled beauty (in my opinion), but it is also a celebration of Sean Baker’s career and talent.  There is a story there about someone who has been uncompromising in his willingless to embrace people who live on the margins but also takes risks with how he films his movies. They feel like a slice of life. Anora is by far his best. It’s always hard to describe what defines a great movie. You just feel it. It’s like an arrow straight to the heart. Anora has buzz. It is beloved and at the moment, in my opinion, is the film to beat.

Emilia Perez – a slightly harder lift because at some point the industry will have to give Netflix the Best Picture prize they clearly want to leap that last barrier before becoming a legit studio. Hell, Apple got there before they did. There is still a bit of a stigma, I think, around Netflix. There is ongoing annoyance that Netflix represents the end of theatrical and why didn’t they open Knives Out in movie theaters, etc. Because the whole point is to drive subscribers to their platform and the Oscars do what Fred Astaire did for Ginger Rogers — he gave her class. Netflix needs CLASS.

Beyond that, Emilia Perez, as I have said, is Woketacular, Woketacular – with the first transgender nominee on tap, maybe winner, and lots of people of color – maybe only one white guy? He might even be the villain? Yeah, it’s like Everything, Everywhere All At Once. It really does check the boxes for the kind of tastes of the people who do th evoting. So that could win.

Conclave – ordianrily this movie couldn’t win because it is a thriller about choosing the new pope. It’s sort of the same problem A Complete Unknown would have. Like what’s the narrative? Why? But the narrative is clear once you see the movie. It is a “message” movie about pulling the church into the progressive era. That would be why it won in my view, if people felt strongly about that.

Juror #2 – hats off to the man, Clint Eastwood. He’s won two Best Picture Oscars and Best Director and he has made a film that has earned high marks from the critics at Rotten Tomatoes, which is quite something considering they might have punished for his political beliefs, they did not:

Jurur #2 is going on my list because I do think there is a portion of the Academy that longs for “normal movies” and might just go for it.

Gladiator II – there is always the chance that this movie makes so much money voters throw Oscars at it in an attempt to revive the corpse. I could probably make a strong argument for why it would be the movie of the year this year but I’ll decide that once I see it.

Other than that, at the moment, I don’t see any other movie winning. But it’s early yet and we still have a long way to go.

Here are my predictions for this week:

Best Picture
Anora
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Gladiator II
Dune Part Two
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
Juror #2
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Alts: Wicked, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Blitz, The Substance, The Piano Lesson

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Clint Eastwood, Juror #2
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Alt. Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance, Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Alts: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Alts: Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun; Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Adam Pearson, A Different Man
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Alts: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
Saturday Night
The Substance
Alt. Emilia Pérez; The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2

Editing
Gladiator II
Conclave
Anora
Saturday Night
Dune Part Two

Cinematography
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
The Substance

Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
The Substance
Gladiator II
Wicked

Costumes
Wicked
Dune 2
The Substance
Maria
Gladiator II

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2